Estimating The Fair Value Of Grupo Famsa, S.A.B. de C.V. (BMV:GFAMSAA)

Today we'll do a simple run through of a valuation method used to estimate the attractiveness of Grupo Famsa, S.A.B. de C.V. (BMV:GFAMSAA) as an investment opportunity by estimating the company's future cash flows and discounting them to their present value. One way to achieve this is by employing the Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) model. Believe it or not, it's not too difficult to follow, as you'll see from our example!

Companies can be valued in a lot of ways, so we would point out that a DCF is not perfect for every situation. If you want to learn more about discounted cash flow, the rationale behind this calculation can be read in detail in the Simply Wall St analysis model.

See our latest analysis for Grupo Famsa. de

Is Grupo Famsa. de Fairly Valued?

We use what is known as a 2-stage model, which simply means we have two different periods of growth rates for the company's cash flows. Generally the first stage is higher growth, and the second stage is a lower growth phase. To start off with, we need to estimate the next ten years of cash flows. Seeing as no analyst estimates of free cash flow are available to us, we have extrapolate the previous free cash flow (FCF) from the company's last reported value. We assume companies with shrinking free cash flow will slow their rate of shrinkage, and that companies with growing free cash flow will see their growth rate slow, over this period. We do this to reflect that growth tends to slow more in the early years than it does in later years.

Generally we assume that a dollar today is more valuable than a dollar in the future, so we need to discount the sum of these future cash flows to arrive at a present value estimate:

10-year free cash flow (FCF) forecast

	2023	2024	2025	2026	2027	2028	2029	2030	2031	2032
Levered FCF (MX$, Millions)	Mex$45.5m	Mex$24.7m	Mex$17.3m	Mex$14.1m	Mex$12.5m	Mex$11.9m	Mex$11.7m	Mex$11.8m	Mex$12.2m	Mex$12.7m
Growth Rate Estimate Source	Est @ -68.53%	Est @ -45.77%	Est @ -29.84%	Est @ -18.68%	Est @ -10.88%	Est @ -5.41%	Est @ -1.59%	Est @ 1.09%	Est @ 2.97%	Est @ 4.28%
Present Value (MX$, Millions) Discounted @ 24%	Mex$36.7	Mex$16.1	Mex$9.1	Mex$6.0	Mex$4.3	Mex$3.3	Mex$2.6	Mex$2.1	Mex$1.8	Mex$1.5

("Est" = FCF growth rate estimated by Simply Wall St)
Present Value of 10-year Cash Flow (PVCF) = Mex$84m

After calculating the present value of future cash flows in the initial 10-year period, we need to calculate the Terminal Value, which accounts for all future cash flows beyond the first stage. For a number of reasons a very conservative growth rate is used that cannot exceed that of a country's GDP growth. In this case we have used the 5-year average of the 10-year government bond yield (7.3%) to estimate future growth. In the same way as with the 10-year 'growth' period, we discount future cash flows to today's value, using a cost of equity of 24%.

Terminal Value (TV)= FCF₂₀₃₂ × (1 + g) ÷ (r – g) = Mex$13m× (1 + 7.3%) ÷ (24%– 7.3%) = Mex$83m

Present Value of Terminal Value (PVTV)= TV / (1 + r)¹⁰= Mex$83m÷ ( 1 + 24%)¹⁰= Mex$9.7m

The total value, or equity value, is then the sum of the present value of the future cash flows, which in this case is Mex$93m. The last step is to then divide the equity value by the number of shares outstanding. Compared to the current share price of Mex$0.2, the company appears around fair value at the time of writing. Remember though, that this is just an approximate valuation, and like any complex formula - garbage in, garbage out.

The Assumptions

We would point out that the most important inputs to a discounted cash flow are the discount rate and of course the actual cash flows. Part of investing is coming up with your own evaluation of a company's future performance, so try the calculation yourself and check your own assumptions. The DCF also does not consider the possible cyclicality of an industry, or a company's future capital requirements, so it does not give a full picture of a company's potential performance. Given that we are looking at Grupo Famsa. de as potential shareholders, the cost of equity is used as the discount rate, rather than the cost of capital (or weighted average cost of capital, WACC) which accounts for debt. In this calculation we've used 24%, which is based on a levered beta of 2.000. Beta is a measure of a stock's volatility, compared to the market as a whole. We get our beta from the industry average beta of globally comparable companies, with an imposed limit between 0.8 and 2.0, which is a reasonable range for a stable business.

SWOT Analysis for Grupo Famsa. de

Looking Ahead:

Although the valuation of a company is important, it is only one of many factors that you need to assess for a company. It's not possible to obtain a foolproof valuation with a DCF model. Instead the best use for a DCF model is to test certain assumptions and theories to see if they would lead to the company being undervalued or overvalued. If a company grows at a different rate, or if its cost of equity or risk free rate changes sharply, the output can look very different. For Grupo Famsa. de, we've compiled three additional items you should consider:

1. Risks: Be aware that Grupo Famsa. de is showing 4 warning signs in our investment analysis , you should know about...
2. Other High Quality Alternatives: Do you like a good all-rounder? Explore our interactive list of high quality stocks to get an idea of what else is out there you may be missing!
3. Other Environmentally-Friendly Companies: Concerned about the environment and think consumers will buy eco-friendly products more and more? Browse through our interactive list of companies that are thinking about a greener future to discover some stocks you may not have thought of!

PS. Simply Wall St updates its DCF calculation for every Mexican stock every day, so if you want to find the intrinsic value of any other stock just search here.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.