New Risk • 7h
New major risk - Earnings quality The company has a high level of non-cash earnings. Accrual ratio: 20% This is considered a major risk. Non-cash earnings can arise from many different things. However, if a company consistently has a high level of non-cash earnings, it may be a sign that they are recognizing revenue from customers before the full value of the sales are received as cash or they are not depreciating the value of their assets appropriately. These are practices that inflate earnings, while not providing a similar increase to cash flows. Companies in some select industries naturally have a high level of non-cash earnings and it is not a major concern. However, in the worst case scenario it can be an early sign of performance manipulation by management. Currently, the following risks have been identified for the company: Major Risks Dividend is not well covered by earnings and cash flows. Paying a dividend despite being loss-making. Paying a dividend despite having no free cash flows. High level of non-cash earnings (20% accrual ratio). New Risk • May 07
New major risk - Financial position The company's debt is not well covered by operating cash flow. Currently running at an operating cash loss. This is considered a major risk. If the company's operating cash flows are too small relative to the size of their debt, it increases their balance sheet risk. The company has less cash from operations to cover its expenses from servicing large debt and it increases the risk of liquidity issues. It also extends the time it would take for the company to pay back the debt in full, meaning it may not be able to easily pay it all off in a distress scenario. Currently, the following risks have been identified for the company: Major Risks Debt is not well covered by operating cash flow (currently running at an operating cash loss). Dividend is not well covered by earnings and cash flows. Paying a dividend despite being loss-making. Paying a dividend despite having no free cash flows. Minor Risk Large one-off items impacting financial results. Buy Or Sell Opportunity • Mar 10
Now 21% undervalued Over the last 90 days, the stock has risen 6.2% to Mex$35.77. The fair value is estimated to be Mex$45.19, however this is not to be taken as a buy recommendation but rather should be used as a guide only. Revenue has grown by 16% over the last 3 years. Earnings per share has declined by 8.9%. New Risk • Mar 02
New minor risk - Earnings quality The company has large one-off items impacting its financial results. One-off items were 92% of the size of the rest of the company's trailing 12-month earnings before tax. This is considered a minor risk. One-off items are incomes or expenses that the company does not expect to repeat in future periods. Examples include profits from the sale of a business or expenses from a restructuring or legal settlements. If the company's reported statutory earnings include a large proportion of one-off items it means they may be an unreliable indicator of its true business performance as the earnings were skewed by these incomes or expenses. Currently, the following risks have been identified for the company: Major Risk Dividend is not well covered by earnings and cash flows. Paying a dividend despite being loss-making. Paying a dividend despite having no free cash flows. Minor Risk Large one-off items impacting financial results. New Risk • Feb 19
New major risk - Dividend sustainability The dividend is not well covered by earnings and cash flows. The company is paying a dividend despite being loss-making. The company is paying a dividend despite having no free cash flows. Dividend yield: 5.9% This is considered a major risk. Companies that pay out too much of their earnings and cash flows are at risk of having to reduce or cut their dividend in future. If earnings or cash flows stagnate or fall, then there may not be enough to maintain the same dividend. Or in extreme cases, companies may opt to dig into capital reserves or take on debt to maintain the dividend. For dividend paying companies, any reduction in the dividend can significantly impact the share price. This is currently the only risk that has been identified for the company. Reported Earnings • Oct 22
Third quarter 2025 earnings released: EPS: Mex$0.77 (vs Mex$1.11 in 3Q 2024) Third quarter 2025 results: EPS: Mex$0.77 (down from Mex$1.11 in 3Q 2024). Revenue: Mex$392.3m (up 18% from 3Q 2024). Net income: Mex$459.8m (down 30% from 3Q 2024). Revenue is forecast to grow 4.9% p.a. on average during the next 3 years, compared to a 2.6% growth forecast for the Global REITs industry. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has fallen by 8% per year but the company’s share price has increased by 1% per year, which means it is well ahead of earnings. Price Target Changed • Aug 04
Price target increased by 8.5% to Mex$40.00 Up from Mex$36.87, the current price target is an average from 2 analysts. New target price is 46% above last closing price of Mex$27.34. Stock is up 6.5% over the past year. The company posted earnings per share of Mex$4.02 last year. Reported Earnings • Jul 22
Second quarter 2025 earnings released: EPS: Mex$1.30 (vs Mex$0.07 in 2Q 2024) Second quarter 2025 results: EPS: Mex$1.30 (up from Mex$0.07 in 2Q 2024). Revenue: Mex$391.8m (up 28% from 2Q 2024). Net income: Mex$771.5m (up Mex$741.0m from 2Q 2024). Revenue is forecast to grow 4.2% p.a. on average during the next 3 years, compared to a 1.2% growth forecast for the Global REITs industry. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has fallen by 5% per year whereas the company’s share price has fallen by 6% per year. Board Change • Jun 29
High number of new directors There are 5 new directors who have joined the board in the last 3 years. Independent Member of Technical Committee Luis Terrazas Seyffert was the last director to join the board, commencing their role in 2025. The company’s lack of board continuity is considered a risk according to the Simply Wall St Risk Model. Reported Earnings • Apr 18
First quarter 2025 earnings released First quarter 2025 results: Revenue: Mex$387.0m (up 27% from 1Q 2024). Net income: Mex$577.2m (down 6.2% from 1Q 2024). Revenue is forecast to grow 2.3% p.a. on average during the next 3 years, compared to a 1.3% growth forecast for the Global REITs industry. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has fallen by 1% per year whereas the company’s share price has fallen by 3% per year. New Risk • Feb 14
New minor risk - Earnings quality The company has large one-off items impacting its financial results. One-off items were 127% of the size of the rest of the company's trailing 12-month earnings before tax. This is considered a minor risk. One-off items are incomes or expenses that the company does not expect to repeat in future periods. Examples include profits from the sale of a business or expenses from a restructuring or legal settlements. If the company's reported statutory earnings include a large proportion of one-off items it means they may be an unreliable indicator of its true business performance as the earnings were skewed by these incomes or expenses. Currently, the following risks have been identified for the company: Major Risk Dividend is not well covered by earnings and cash flows. Payout ratio: 179% Cash payout ratio: 216% Minor Risks Large one-off items impacting financial results. Shareholders have been diluted in the past year (29% increase in shares outstanding). Reported Earnings • Feb 12
Full year 2024 earnings released: EPS: Mex$3.58 (vs Mex$5.83 in FY 2023) Full year 2024 results: EPS: Mex$3.58 (down from Mex$5.83 in FY 2023). Revenue: Mex$1.29b (up 23% from FY 2023). Net income: Mex$2.13b (down 6.9% from FY 2023). Revenue is forecast to grow 3.8% p.a. on average during the next 3 years, compared to a 6.8% growth forecast for the REITs industry in Mexico. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has increased by 4% per year but the company’s share price has fallen by 8% per year, which means it is significantly lagging earnings. New Risk • Jan 16
New major risk - Shareholder dilution The company's shareholders have been substantially diluted in the past year. Increase in shares outstanding: 38% This is considered a major risk. Shareholder dilution occurs when there is an increase in the number of shares on issue that is not proportionally distributed between all shareholders. Often due to the company raising equity capital or some options being converted into stock. All else being equal, if there are more shares outstanding then each existing share will be entitled to a lower proportion of the company's total earnings, thus reducing earnings per share (EPS). While dilution might not always result in lower EPS (like if the company is using the capital to fund an EPS accretive acquisition) in a lot cases it does, along with lower dividends per share and less voting power at shareholder meetings. Currently, the following risks have been identified for the company: Major Risks Dividend is not well covered by earnings and cash flows. Paying a dividend despite being loss-making. Paying a dividend despite having no free cash flows. Shareholders have been substantially diluted in the past year (38% increase in shares outstanding). Minor Risks Large one-off items impacting financial results. Profit margins are more than 30% lower than last year (138% net profit margin). Reported Earnings • Oct 16
Third quarter 2024 earnings released: EPS: Mex$1.11 (vs Mex$0.79 in 3Q 2023) Third quarter 2024 results: EPS: Mex$1.11 (up from Mex$0.79 in 3Q 2023). Revenue: Mex$331.5m (up 27% from 3Q 2023). Net income: Mex$656.8m (up 94% from 3Q 2023). Revenue is forecast to grow 4.6% p.a. on average during the next 3 years, compared to a 1.3% growth forecast for the Global REITs industry. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has increased by 12% per year but the company’s share price has only increased by 3% per year, which means it is significantly lagging earnings growth. New Risk • Jul 23
New minor risk - Profit margin trend The company's profit margins are lower than last year and have reduced by more than 30%. Net profit margin: 118% Last year net profit margin: 229% This is considered a minor risk. A large drop in profit margin could indicate the company does not have strong competitive advantages or it is yet to establish itself and its core business. Even if it is a well established business, this may make it a much riskier investment than one that has a combination of proven competitive advantages and a stable or growing profit margin. Currently, the following risks have been identified for the company: Major Risk Debt is not well covered by operating cash flow (13% operating cash flow to total debt). Minor Risks Dividend is not well covered by cash flows (118% cash payout ratio). Large one-off items impacting financial results. Profit margins are more than 30% lower than last year (118% net profit margin). Shareholders have been diluted in the past year (7.3% increase in shares outstanding). New Risk • May 23
New major risk - Financial position The company's debt is not well covered by operating cash flow. Operating cash flow to total debt ratio: 16% This is considered a major risk. If the company's operating cash flows are too small relative to the size of their debt, it increases their balance sheet risk. The company has less cash from operations to cover its expenses from servicing large debt and it increases the risk of liquidity issues. It also extends the time it would take for the company to pay back the debt in full, meaning it may not be able to easily pay it all off in a distress scenario. Currently, the following risks have been identified for the company: Major Risk Debt is not well covered by operating cash flow (16% operating cash flow to total debt). Minor Risks Dividend is not well covered by cash flows (118% cash payout ratio). Large one-off items impacting financial results. Shareholders have been diluted in the past year (37% increase in shares outstanding). New Risk • Apr 30
New minor risk - Financial position The company has a high level of debt. Net debt to equity ratio: 48% This is considered a minor risk. Having a high level of debt increases the company's balance sheet risk. The company has a higher interest repayment burden, leading to the need to allocate a greater amount of its earnings towards servicing the debt, potentially limiting growth options or shareholder distributions. It can also increase the risk of bankruptcy if business conditions deteriorate enough that the company can no longer meet its debt obligations. Currently, the following risks have been identified for the company: Minor Risks High level of debt (48% net debt to equity). Unstable dividend paying track record with dividend experiencing an annual drop of over 20% in the past. Large one-off items impacting financial results. Shareholders have been diluted in the past year (37% increase in shares outstanding). Reported Earnings • Apr 25
First quarter 2024 earnings released: EPS: Mex$1.34 (vs Mex$2.08 in 1Q 2023) First quarter 2024 results: EPS: Mex$1.34 (down from Mex$2.08 in 1Q 2023). Revenue: Mex$303.8m (up 17% from 1Q 2023). Net income: Mex$615.6m (down 12% from 1Q 2023). Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has increased by 26% per year but the company’s share price has only increased by 12% per year, which means it is significantly lagging earnings growth. Reported Earnings • Feb 16
Full year 2023 earnings released: EPS: Mex$5.27 (vs Mex$4.40 in FY 2022) Full year 2023 results: EPS: Mex$5.27 (up from Mex$4.40 in FY 2022). Revenue: Mex$1.05b (up 4.4% from FY 2022). Net income: Mex$2.26b (up 53% from FY 2022). Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has increased by 26% per year but the company’s share price has only increased by 17% per year, which means it is significantly lagging earnings growth. New Risk • Oct 19
New minor risk - Financial position The company has a high level of debt. Net debt to equity ratio: 40% This is considered a minor risk. Having a high level of debt increases the company's balance sheet risk. The company has a higher interest repayment burden, leading to the need to allocate a greater amount of its earnings towards servicing the debt, potentially limiting growth options or shareholder distributions. It can also increase the risk of bankruptcy if business conditions deteriorate enough that the company can no longer meet its debt obligations. Currently, the following risks have been identified for the company: Minor Risks High level of debt (40% net debt to equity). Unstable dividend paying track record with dividend experiencing an annual drop of over 20% in the past. Large one-off items impacting financial results. Shareholders have been diluted in the past year (28% increase in shares outstanding). Reported Earnings • Oct 19
Third quarter 2023 earnings released: EPS: Mex$0.79 (vs Mex$0.78 in 3Q 2022) Third quarter 2023 results: EPS: Mex$0.79 (up from Mex$0.78 in 3Q 2022). Revenue: Mex$261.4m (flat on 3Q 2022). Net income: Mex$337.8m (up 30% from 3Q 2022). Revenue is forecast to grow 9.8% p.a. on average during the next 3 years, compared to a 6.1% growth forecast for the REITs industry in Mexico. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has increased by 29% per year but the company’s share price has only increased by 15% per year, which means it is significantly lagging earnings growth. Board Change • Aug 25
Insufficient new directors No new directors have joined the board in the last 3 years. The company's board is composed of: No new directors. 12 experienced directors. No highly experienced directors. was the last director to join the board, commencing their role in . The following issues are considered to be risks according to the Simply Wall St Risk Model: Insufficient board refreshment. Buying Opportunity • Apr 17
Now 21% undervalued Over the last 90 days, the stock is up 6.1%. The fair value is estimated to be Mex$39.95, however this is not to be taken as a buy recommendation but rather should be used as a guide only. Price Target Changed • Oct 22
Price target increased to Mex$25.00 Up from Mex$22.00, the current price target is provided by 1 analyst. New target price is 14% above last closing price of Mex$21.99. Stock is up 19% over the past year. The company posted earnings per share of Mex$1.41 last year. Board Change • Oct 11
Less than half of directors are independent No new directors have joined the board in the last 3 years. The company's board is composed of: No new directors. 9 experienced directors. 1 highly experienced director. 2 independent directors (3 non-independent directors). Independent Director Guillermo Prieto Trevino was the last independent director to join the board, commencing their role in 2014. The following issues are considered to be risks according to the Simply Wall St Risk Model: Minority of independent directors. Insufficient board refreshment. Upcoming Dividend • Jul 30
Inaugural dividend of Mex$0.46 per share Eligible shareholders must have bought the stock before 06 August 2021. Payment date: 10 August 2021. This is the first dividend for Banco Actinver Institución de Banca Múltiple Grupo Financiero Actinver since going public. The average dividend yield among industry peers is 1.8%. Price Target Changed • Jul 22
Price target increased to Mex$23.50 Up from Mex$21.90, the current price target is provided by 1 analyst. New target price is 12% above last closing price of Mex$21.00. Stock is up 11% over the past year. Reported Earnings • Jan 23
Full year 2020 earnings released: EPS Mex$2.79 Full year 2020 results: Revenue: Mex$561.2m (up 19% from FY 2019). Net income: Mex$674.3m (up 16% from FY 2019). Reported Earnings • Oct 29
Third quarter earnings released Over the last 12 months the company has reported total profits of Mex$615.4m, up 43% from the prior year. Total revenue was Mex$537.3m over the last 12 months, up 14% from the prior year.