Ternium S.A.

BMV:TX * Stock Report

Market Cap: Mex$132.3b

Ternium Valuation

Is TX * undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

3/6

Valuation Score 3/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Peers

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Industry

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of TX * when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: TX * (MX$695.72) is trading below our estimate of fair value (MX$6236.14)

Significantly Below Fair Value: TX * is trading below fair value by more than 20%.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for TX *?

Key metric: As TX * is profitable we use its Price-To-Earnings Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Earnings ratio for TX *. This is calculated by dividing TX *'s market cap by their current earnings.
What is TX *'s PE Ratio?
PE Ratio82.8x
EarningsUS$79.35m
Market CapUS$6.57b

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does TX *'s PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for TX * vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PEEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average29.2x
ICH B Industrias CH S. A. B. de C. V
8.7xn/aMex$73.4b
PE&OLES * Industrias Peñoles. de
72xn/aMex$121.2b
COLLADO * G Collado. de
8.9xn/aMex$1.5b
CEMEX CPO CEMEX. de
27.3x31.1%Mex$158.4b
TX * Ternium
82.8x45.2%Mex$6.6b

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: TX * is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (82.8x) compared to the peer average (29.2x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does TX *'s PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the South American Metals and Mining Industry?

1 CompanyPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No. of Companies5PE0612182430+
1 CompanyEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: TX * is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (82.8x) compared to the South American Metals and Mining industry average (8.4x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is TX *'s PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

TX * PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio82.8x
Fair PE Ration/a

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: Insufficient data to calculate TX *'s Price-To-Earnings Fair Ratio for valuation analysis.

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst TX * forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
CurrentMex$695.72
Mex$942.47
+35.5%
10.0%Mex$1,078.43Mex$813.91n/a11
Nov ’25Mex$699.99
Mex$944.71
+35.0%
9.5%Mex$1,074.66Mex$811.06n/a11
Oct ’25Mex$729.99
Mex$912.49
+25.0%
10.6%Mex$1,067.80Mex$776.58n/a11
Sep ’25Mex$663.00
Mex$944.48
+42.5%
10.3%Mex$1,119.45Mex$785.58n/a11
Aug ’25Mex$629.50
Mex$906.18
+44.0%
10.2%Mex$1,070.01Mex$750.88n/a11
Jul ’25Mex$684.80
Mex$908.65
+32.7%
8.2%Mex$1,015.84Mex$725.60n/a11
Jun ’25Mex$725.00
Mex$835.42
+15.2%
8.4%Mex$940.80Mex$672.00n/a11
May ’25Mex$750.00
Mex$851.67
+13.6%
7.8%Mex$924.85Mex$685.07n/a11
Apr ’25Mex$699.99
Mex$812.06
+16.0%
7.0%Mex$884.09Mex$667.24n/a11
Mar ’25Mex$680.01
Mex$824.48
+21.2%
6.8%Mex$903.52Mex$681.90n/a11
Feb ’25Mex$665.00
Mex$847.25
+27.4%
4.5%Mex$908.99Mex$771.79n/a10
Jan ’25Mex$725.00
Mex$830.71
+14.6%
4.7%Mex$902.71Mex$766.45n/a11
Dec ’24Mex$686.00
Mex$834.24
+21.6%
5.3%Mex$920.27Mex$764.00n/a11
Nov ’24Mex$654.17
Mex$880.96
+34.7%
5.5%Mex$962.70Mex$799.22Mex$699.9911
Oct ’24Mex$694.00
Mex$849.55
+22.4%
6.6%Mex$922.32Mex$765.70Mex$729.9911
Sep ’24Mex$690.01
Mex$815.62
+18.2%
7.1%Mex$891.30Mex$706.31Mex$663.0012
Aug ’24Mex$749.98
Mex$823.18
+9.8%
6.3%Mex$897.24Mex$711.02Mex$629.5012
Jul ’24Mex$680.00
Mex$850.05
+25.0%
9.3%Mex$1,044.29Mex$719.02Mex$684.8013
Jun ’24Mex$684.00
Mex$871.97
+27.5%
9.6%Mex$1,072.22Mex$738.25Mex$725.0013
May ’24Mex$772.57
Mex$897.28
+16.1%
9.6%Mex$1,100.78Mex$757.92Mex$750.0013
Apr ’24Mex$725.20
Mex$879.83
+21.3%
12.1%Mex$1,119.01Mex$642.05Mex$699.9913
Mar ’24Mex$790.00
Mex$831.87
+5.3%
16.7%Mex$1,120.94Mex$624.79Mex$680.0113
Feb ’24Mex$759.00
Mex$818.61
+7.9%
16.8%Mex$1,135.88Mex$633.11Mex$665.0013
Jan ’24Mex$595.47
Mex$814.96
+36.9%
19.4%Mex$1,205.15Mex$651.97Mex$725.0012
Dec ’23Mex$579.00
Mex$801.48
+38.4%
19.9%Mex$1,178.07Mex$637.32Mex$686.0012
Nov ’23Mex$573.76
Mex$886.63
+54.5%
16.9%Mex$1,216.52Mex$678.06Mex$654.1712

Analyst Forecast: Target price is more than 20% higher than the current share price and analysts are within a statistically confident range of agreement.

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