The Mosaic Company

BMV:MOS * Stock Report

Market Cap: Mex$153.5b

Mosaic Valuation

Is MOS * undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

4/6

Valuation Score 4/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Peers

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Industry

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of MOS * when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: MOS * (MX$515) is trading below our estimate of fair value (MX$766.11)

Significantly Below Fair Value: MOS * is trading below fair value by more than 20%.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for MOS *?

Key metric: As MOS * is profitable we use its Price-To-Earnings Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Earnings ratio for MOS *. This is calculated by dividing MOS *'s market cap by their current earnings.
What is MOS *'s PE Ratio?
PE Ratio20.6x
EarningsUS$371.20m
Market CapUS$7.65b

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does MOS *'s PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for MOS * vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PEEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average28.5x
CEMEX CPO CEMEX. de
28.3x28.7%Mex$163.7b
PE&OLES * Industrias Peñoles. de
66.6xn/aMex$111.9b
ORBIA * Orbia Advance Corporation. de
10.1x5.3%Mex$27.8b
ICH B Industrias CH S. A. B. de C. V
8.8xn/aMex$74.2b
MOS * Mosaic
20.6x27.5%Mex$7.6b

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: MOS * is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (20.6x) compared to the peer average (28.5x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does MOS *'s PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the Global Chemicals Industry?

30 CompaniesPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No. of Companies181PE01632486480+
30 CompaniesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: MOS * is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (20.6x) compared to the Global Chemicals industry average (22.2x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is MOS *'s PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

MOS * PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio20.6x
Fair PE Ration/a

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: Insufficient data to calculate MOS *'s Price-To-Earnings Fair Ratio for valuation analysis.

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst MOS * forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
CurrentMex$515.00
Mex$661.58
+28.5%
17.6%Mex$888.31Mex$504.72n/a19
Dec ’25Mex$533.80
Mex$658.58
+23.4%
17.4%Mex$885.15Mex$502.93n/a19
Nov ’25n/a
Mex$658.94
0%
17.4%Mex$894.69Mex$516.93n/a19
Oct ’25n/a
Mex$660.93
0%
18.2%Mex$966.69Mex$502.68n/a20
Sep ’25n/a
Mex$638.78
0%
17.8%Mex$931.56Mex$484.41n/a20
Aug ’25Mex$524.00
Mex$632.06
+20.6%
16.4%Mex$899.46Mex$485.71n/a20
Jul ’25Mex$519.82
Mex$649.15
+24.9%
14.8%Mex$907.00Mex$489.78n/a20
Jun ’25n/a
Mex$596.72
0%
14.5%Mex$834.35Mex$450.55n/a20
May ’25Mex$516.50
Mex$640.37
+24.0%
11.9%Mex$856.34Mex$530.93n/a20
Apr ’25Mex$545.00
Mex$630.42
+15.7%
13.6%Mex$834.69Mex$517.51n/a22
Mar ’25n/a
Mex$654.88
0%
13.9%Mex$852.40Mex$528.49n/a22
Feb ’25Mex$531.66
Mex$673.11
+26.6%
13.4%Mex$860.44Mex$533.47n/a21
Jan ’25Mex$610.00
Mex$683.24
+12.0%
14.6%Mex$919.74Mex$528.00n/a21
Dec ’24Mex$620.00
Mex$694.34
+12.0%
13.9%Mex$925.13Mex$531.09Mex$533.8021
Nov ’24Mex$577.61
Mex$772.05
+33.7%
12.7%Mex$984.71Mex$583.53n/a21
Oct ’24Mex$624.50
Mex$740.58
+18.6%
12.6%Mex$941.94Mex$548.04n/a21
Sep ’24Mex$652.03
Mex$719.03
+10.3%
12.9%Mex$921.54Mex$536.17n/a22
Aug ’24Mex$678.11
Mex$710.24
+4.7%
13.6%Mex$927.37Mex$539.56Mex$524.0022
Jul ’24Mex$588.80
Mex$749.91
+27.4%
14.4%Mex$1,061.41Mex$599.18Mex$519.8222
Jun ’24Mex$557.00
Mex$783.28
+40.6%
15.2%Mex$1,088.31Mex$614.37n/a22
May ’24Mex$762.53
Mex$934.87
+22.6%
17.3%Mex$1,258.59Mex$683.24Mex$516.5022
Apr ’24Mex$795.50
Mex$1,037.47
+30.4%
17.0%Mex$1,479.67Mex$758.80Mex$545.0022
Mar ’24Mex$981.82
Mex$988.89
+0.7%
16.6%Mex$1,412.03Mex$724.12n/a23
Feb ’24Mex$929.00
Mex$1,058.84
+14.0%
18.5%Mex$1,500.74Mex$731.61Mex$531.6623
Jan ’24Mex$847.03
Mex$1,190.48
+40.5%
15.5%Mex$1,785.89Mex$854.12Mex$610.0022
Dec ’23Mex$973.00
Mex$1,189.60
+22.3%
15.3%Mex$1,769.56Mex$846.31Mex$620.0021

Analyst Forecast: Target price is more than 20% higher than the current share price, but analysts are not within a statistically confident range of agreement.

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Company Analysis and Financial Data Status

DataLast Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis2024/12/22 11:32
End of Day Share Price 2024/12/19 00:00
Earnings2024/09/30
Annual Earnings2023/12/31

Data Sources

The data used in our company analysis is from S&P Global Market Intelligence LLC. The following data is used in our analysis model to generate this report. Data is normalised which can introduce a delay from the source being available.

PackageDataTimeframeExample US Source *
Company Financials10 years
  • Income statement
  • Cash flow statement
  • Balance sheet
Analyst Consensus Estimates+3 years
  • Forecast financials
  • Analyst price targets
Market Prices30 years
  • Stock prices
  • Dividends, Splits and Actions
Ownership10 years
  • Top shareholders
  • Insider trading
Management10 years
  • Leadership team
  • Board of directors
Key Developments10 years
  • Company announcements

* example for US securities, for non-US equivalent regulatory forms and sources are used.

Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more here.

Analysis Model and Snowflake

Details of the analysis model used to generate this report is available on our Github page, we also have guides on how to use our reports and tutorials on Youtube.

Learn about the world class team who designed and built the Simply Wall St analysis model.

Industry and Sector Metrics

Our industry and section metrics are calculated every 6 hours by Simply Wall St, details of our process are available on .

Analyst Sources

The Mosaic Company is covered by 55 analysts. 18 of those analysts submitted the estimates of revenue or earnings used as inputs to our report. Analysts submissions are updated throughout the day.

AnalystInstitution
Ishan MajumdarBaptista Research
Farooq HamedBarclays
Benjamin TheurerBarclays