Alcoa Corporation

BMV:AA1 * Stock Report

Market Cap: Mex$240.6b

Alcoa Valuation

Is AA1 * undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

1/6

Valuation Score 1/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Sales vs Peers

  • Price-To-Sales vs Industry

  • Price-To-Sales vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of AA1 * when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: AA1 * (MX$921.3) is trading above our estimate of fair value (MX$180.56)

Significantly Below Fair Value: AA1 * is trading above our estimate of fair value.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for AA1 *?

Key metric: As AA1 * is unprofitable we use its Price-To-Sales Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Sales ratio for AA1 *. This is calculated by dividing AA1 *'s market cap by their current revenue.
What is AA1 *'s PS Ratio?
PS Ratio1.1x
SalesUS$11.00b
Market CapUS$11.75b

Price to Sales Ratio vs Peers

How does AA1 *'s PS Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PS ratio for AA1 * vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PSEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average1.5x
PE&OLES * Industrias Peñoles. de
1x-3.4%Mex$121.5b
GMEXICO B Grupo México. de
2.5x4.0%Mex$799.6b
ICH B Industrias CH S. A. B. de C. V
2x7.6%Mex$75.5b
CEMEX CPO CEMEX. de
0.5x1.8%Mex$164.2b
AA1 * Alcoa
1.1x1.0%Mex$11.7b

Price-To-Sales vs Peers: AA1 * is good value based on its Price-To-Sales Ratio (1.1x) compared to the peer average (1.5x).

Price to Sales Ratio vs Industry

How does AA1 *'s PS Ratio compare vs other companies in the South American Metals and Mining Industry?

4 CompaniesPrice / SalesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No. of Companies10PS00.61.21.82.43+
4 CompaniesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No more companies

Price-To-Sales vs Industry: AA1 * is expensive based on its Price-To-Sales Ratio (1.1x) compared to the South American Metals and Mining industry average (0.6x).

Price to Sales Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is AA1 *'s PS Ratio compared to its Fair PS Ratio? This is the expected PS Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

AA1 * PS Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PS Ratio1.1x
Fair PS Ration/a

Price-To-Sales vs Fair Ratio: Insufficient data to calculate AA1 *'s Price-To-Sales Fair Ratio for valuation analysis.

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst AA1 * forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
CurrentMex$921.30
Mex$944.88
+2.6%
10.8%Mex$1,106.44Mex$774.51n/a13
Nov ’25Mex$815.87
Mex$943.45
+15.6%
10.8%Mex$1,104.76Mex$773.33n/a13
Oct ’25Mex$696.01
Mex$872.15
+25.3%
14.4%Mex$1,078.73Mex$706.08n/a12
Sep ’25n/a
Mex$850.35
0%
13.7%Mex$1,049.56Mex$706.07n/a10
Aug ’25Mex$589.00
Mex$828.07
+40.6%
15.0%Mex$1,031.32Mex$637.54n/a10
Jul ’25n/a
Mex$747.94
0%
21.5%Mex$954.36Mex$458.83n/a11
Jun ’25Mex$756.00
Mex$653.28
-13.6%
20.8%Mex$881.77Mex$423.93n/a11
May ’25Mex$638.00
Mex$613.83
-3.8%
16.5%Mex$816.96Mex$425.50n/a12
Apr ’25Mex$541.00
Mex$506.90
-6.3%
20.9%Mex$745.38Mex$364.41n/a12
Mar ’25Mex$470.00
Mex$518.44
+10.3%
20.8%Mex$767.16Mex$375.06n/a12
Feb ’25Mex$488.01
Mex$536.15
+9.9%
17.8%Mex$769.44Mex$393.27n/a13
Jan ’25Mex$594.99
Mex$523.20
-12.1%
18.4%Mex$764.20Mex$390.59n/a12
Dec ’24Mex$470.00
Mex$527.85
+12.3%
20.8%Mex$769.85Mex$393.48n/a11
Nov ’24Mex$446.00
Mex$557.59
+25.0%
21.6%Mex$820.47Mex$419.35Mex$815.8711
Oct ’24Mex$494.00
Mex$633.02
+28.1%
24.3%Mex$939.96Mex$427.26Mex$696.0110
Sep ’24Mex$492.00
Mex$648.25
+31.8%
20.3%Mex$936.41Mex$425.64n/a12
Aug ’24Mex$596.50
Mex$646.27
+8.3%
20.0%Mex$917.48Mex$417.04Mex$589.0012
Jul ’24Mex$582.00
Mex$780.88
+34.2%
18.3%Mex$1,026.72Mex$564.70n/a12
Jun ’24Mex$574.00
Mex$877.93
+53.0%
16.4%Mex$1,149.75Mex$654.47Mex$756.0012
May ’24Mex$646.62
Mex$903.60
+39.7%
14.3%Mex$1,165.36Mex$717.14Mex$638.0010
Apr ’24Mex$769.00
Mex$980.97
+27.6%
14.1%Mex$1,176.44Mex$796.36Mex$541.0010
Mar ’24Mex$873.00
Mex$1,010.58
+15.8%
13.0%Mex$1,194.32Mex$771.71Mex$470.0010
Feb ’24Mex$975.00
Mex$1,005.53
+3.1%
11.7%Mex$1,210.37Mex$782.08Mex$488.0110
Jan ’24Mex$880.00
Mex$958.79
+9.0%
11.7%Mex$1,110.79Mex$798.99Mex$594.9910
Dec ’23Mex$965.00
Mex$902.78
-6.4%
16.3%Mex$1,157.41Mex$675.15Mex$470.0010
Nov ’23Mex$809.00
Mex$907.94
+12.2%
15.3%Mex$1,192.04Mex$695.36Mex$446.0010

Analyst Forecast: Target price is less than 20% higher than the current share price.

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