Alcoa Valuation
Is AA1 * undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?
Valuation Score
1/6Valuation Score 1/6
Below Fair Value
Significantly Below Fair Value
Price-To-Sales vs Peers
Price-To-Sales vs Industry
Price-To-Sales vs Fair Ratio
Analyst Forecast
Share Price vs Fair Value
What is the Fair Price of AA1 * when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.
Below Fair Value: AA1 * (MX$617) is trading above our estimate of fair value (MX$167.26)
Significantly Below Fair Value: AA1 * is trading above our estimate of fair value.
Key Valuation Metric
Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for AA1 *?
Other financial metrics that can be useful for relative valuation.
What is AA1 *'s n/a Ratio? | |
---|---|
n/a | 0x |
n/a | n/a |
Market Cap | US$6.62b |
Key Statistics | |
---|---|
Enterprise Value/Revenue | 0.9x |
Enterprise Value/EBITDA | 18.1x |
PEG Ratio | n/a |
Price to Sales Ratio vs Peers
How does AA1 *'s PS Ratio compare to its peers?
Company | Forward PS | Estimated Growth | Market Cap |
---|---|---|---|
Peer Average | 1.7x | ||
PE&OLES * Industrias Peñoles. de | 1.1x | -0.08% | Mex$114.7b |
ICH B Industrias CH S. A. B. de C. V | 1.6x | n/a | Mex$77.6b |
CMOCTEZ * Corporación Moctezuma. de | 3.3x | n/a | Mex$64.4b |
CEMEX CPO CEMEX. de | 0.7x | 3.3% | Mex$204.9b |
AA1 * Alcoa | 0.6x | 4.2% | Mex$6.6b |
Price-To-Sales vs Peers: AA1 * is good value based on its Price-To-Sales Ratio (0.6x) compared to the peer average (1.7x).
Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry
How does AA1 *'s PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the South American Metals and Mining Industry?
Price-To-Sales vs Industry: AA1 * is expensive based on its Price-To-Sales Ratio (0.6x) compared to the South American Metals and Mining industry average (0.6x).
Price to Sales Ratio vs Fair Ratio
What is AA1 *'s PS Ratio compared to its Fair PS Ratio? This is the expected PS Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.
Fair Ratio | |
---|---|
Current PS Ratio | 0.6x |
Fair PS Ratio | n/a |
Price-To-Sales vs Fair Ratio: Insufficient data to calculate AA1 *'s Price-To-Sales Fair Ratio for valuation analysis.
Analyst Price Targets
What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?
Date | Share Price | Average 1Y Price Target | Dispersion | High | Low | 1Y Actual price | Analysts |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Current | Mex$617.00 | Mex$613.83 -0.5% | 16.5% | Mex$816.96 | Mex$425.50 | n/a | 12 |
Apr ’25 | Mex$541.00 | Mex$506.90 -6.3% | 20.9% | Mex$745.38 | Mex$364.41 | n/a | 12 |
Mar ’25 | Mex$470.00 | Mex$518.44 +10.3% | 20.8% | Mex$767.16 | Mex$375.06 | n/a | 12 |
Feb ’25 | Mex$488.01 | Mex$536.15 +9.9% | 17.8% | Mex$769.44 | Mex$393.27 | n/a | 13 |
Jan ’25 | Mex$594.99 | Mex$523.20 -12.1% | 18.4% | Mex$764.20 | Mex$390.59 | n/a | 12 |
Dec ’24 | Mex$470.00 | Mex$527.85 +12.3% | 20.8% | Mex$769.85 | Mex$393.48 | n/a | 11 |
Nov ’24 | Mex$446.00 | Mex$557.59 +25.0% | 21.6% | Mex$820.47 | Mex$419.35 | n/a | 11 |
Oct ’24 | Mex$494.00 | Mex$633.02 +28.1% | 24.3% | Mex$939.96 | Mex$427.26 | n/a | 10 |
Sep ’24 | Mex$492.00 | Mex$648.25 +31.8% | 20.3% | Mex$936.41 | Mex$425.64 | n/a | 12 |
Aug ’24 | Mex$596.50 | Mex$646.27 +8.3% | 20.0% | Mex$917.48 | Mex$417.04 | n/a | 12 |
Jul ’24 | Mex$582.00 | Mex$805.12 +38.3% | 20.1% | Mex$1,060.94 | Mex$564.70 | n/a | 12 |
Jun ’24 | Mex$574.00 | Mex$877.93 +53.0% | 16.4% | Mex$1,149.75 | Mex$654.47 | n/a | 12 |
May ’24 | Mex$646.62 | Mex$903.60 +39.7% | 14.3% | Mex$1,165.36 | Mex$717.14 | n/a | 10 |
Apr ’24 | Mex$769.00 | Mex$980.62 +27.5% | 14.1% | Mex$1,176.02 | Mex$796.07 | Mex$541.00 | 10 |
Mar ’24 | Mex$873.00 | Mex$1,010.58 +15.8% | 13.0% | Mex$1,194.32 | Mex$771.71 | Mex$470.00 | 10 |
Feb ’24 | Mex$975.00 | Mex$1,005.53 +3.1% | 11.7% | Mex$1,210.37 | Mex$782.08 | Mex$488.01 | 10 |
Jan ’24 | Mex$880.00 | Mex$958.79 +9.0% | 11.7% | Mex$1,110.79 | Mex$798.99 | Mex$594.99 | 10 |
Dec ’23 | Mex$965.00 | Mex$902.78 -6.4% | 16.3% | Mex$1,157.41 | Mex$675.15 | Mex$470.00 | 10 |
Nov ’23 | Mex$809.00 | Mex$907.94 +12.2% | 15.3% | Mex$1,192.04 | Mex$695.36 | Mex$446.00 | 10 |
Oct ’23 | Mex$680.00 | Mex$1,077.79 +58.5% | 18.4% | Mex$1,509.23 | Mex$804.92 | Mex$494.00 | 10 |
Sep ’23 | Mex$1,010.00 | Mex$1,168.64 +15.7% | 15.5% | Mex$1,498.03 | Mex$898.82 | Mex$492.00 | 11 |
Aug ’23 | Mex$1,013.00 | Mex$1,257.63 +24.1% | 17.0% | Mex$1,643.47 | Mex$924.45 | Mex$596.50 | 11 |
Jul ’23 | Mex$894.00 | Mex$1,603.83 +79.4% | 22.7% | Mex$2,146.04 | Mex$1,093.27 | Mex$582.00 | 11 |
Jun ’23 | Mex$1,229.00 | Mex$1,809.76 +47.3% | 13.0% | Mex$2,204.98 | Mex$1,443.26 | Mex$574.00 | 12 |
May ’23 | Mex$1,391.00 | Mex$1,863.24 +33.9% | 12.1% | Mex$2,227.79 | Mex$1,377.18 | Mex$646.62 | 12 |
Apr ’23 | Mex$1,791.20 | Mex$1,782.94 -0.5% | 19.2% | Mex$2,284.54 | Mex$1,092.61 | Mex$769.00 | 12 |
Analyst Forecast: Target price is lower than the current share price.