Par Pacific Holdings Valuation
Is PARR * undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?
Valuation Score
4/6Valuation Score 4/6
Below Fair Value
Significantly Below Fair Value
Price-To-Earnings vs Peers
Price-To-Earnings vs Industry
Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio
Analyst Forecast
Share Price vs Fair Value
What is the Fair Price of PARR * when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.
Below Fair Value: PARR * (MX$335.43) is trading below our estimate of fair value (MX$1526.18)
Significantly Below Fair Value: PARR * is trading below fair value by more than 20%.
Key Valuation Metric
Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for PARR *?
Key metric: As PARR * is profitable we use its Price-To-Earnings Ratio for relative valuation analysis.
| What is PARR *'s PE Ratio? | |
|---|---|
| PE Ratio | 3.2x |
| Earnings | US$311.70m |
| Market Cap | US$984.76m |
| Key Statistics | |
|---|---|
| Enterprise Value/Revenue | 0.3x |
| Enterprise Value/EBITDA | 6.1x |
| PEG Ratio | -0.6x |
Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers
How does PARR *'s PE Ratio compare to its peers?
| Company | Forward PE | Estimated Growth | Market Cap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Peer Average | 27.1x | ||
VISTA A Vista Energy. de | 10.1x | 15.0% | Mex$110.0b |
500110 Chennai Petroleum | 12.3x | -5.0% | ₹88.0b |
CE2 CropEnergies | 15.3x | -7.5% | €1.0b |
000096 Shenzhen Guangju Energy | 70.6x | n/a | CN¥6.7b |
PARR * Par Pacific Holdings | 3.2x | -5.7% | Mex$984.8m |
Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: PARR * is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (3.2x) compared to the peer average (27.1x).
Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry
How does PARR *'s PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the Global Oil and Gas Industry?
| 31 Companies | Price / Earnings | Estimated Growth | Market Cap |
|---|---|---|---|
| 31 Companies | Estimated Growth | Market Cap | |
|---|---|---|---|
Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: PARR * is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (3.2x) compared to the Global Oil and Gas industry average (10.7x).
Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio
What is PARR *'s PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.
| Fair Ratio | |
|---|---|
| Current PE Ratio | 3.2x |
| Fair PE Ratio | n/a |
Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: Insufficient data to calculate PARR *'s Price-To-Earnings Fair Ratio for valuation analysis.
Analyst Price Targets
What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?
| Date | Share Price | Average 1Y Price Target | Dispersion | High | Low | 1Y Actual price | Analysts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Current | n/a | Mex$482.76 0% | 15.5% | Mex$614.42 | Mex$389.13 | n/a | 7 |
| Nov ’25 | Mex$335.43 | Mex$472.13 +40.8% | 15.5% | Mex$600.89 | Mex$380.56 | n/a | 7 |
| Oct ’25 | n/a | Mex$515.87 0% | 19.7% | Mex$698.93 | Mex$407.71 | n/a | 7 |
| Sep ’25 | n/a | Mex$601.52 0% | 8.9% | Mex$689.35 | Mex$540.30 | n/a | 7 |
| Aug ’25 | n/a | Mex$658.97 0% | 7.8% | Mex$750.05 | Mex$600.04 | n/a | 7 |
| Jul ’25 | n/a | Mex$671.18 0% | 4.9% | Mex$725.60 | Mex$616.76 | n/a | 6 |
| Jun ’25 | n/a | Mex$662.85 0% | 7.8% | Mex$730.83 | Mex$577.87 | n/a | 6 |
| May ’25 | n/a | Mex$679.77 0% | 8.7% | Mex$785.63 | Mex$601.76 | n/a | 6 |
| Apr ’25 | n/a | Mex$676.04 0% | 7.4% | Mex$754.26 | Mex$603.41 | n/a | 6 |
| Mar ’25 | n/a | Mex$679.08 0% | 5.3% | Mex$733.06 | Mex$613.73 | n/a | 6 |
| Feb ’25 | n/a | Mex$677.15 0% | 6.0% | Mex$740.28 | Mex$619.77 | n/a | 6 |
| Jan ’25 | n/a | Mex$675.96 0% | 6.7% | Mex$759.38 | Mex$621.31 | n/a | 6 |
| Dec ’24 | n/a | Mex$683.18 0% | 6.7% | Mex$774.08 | Mex$633.34 | n/a | 6 |
| Nov ’24 | n/a | Mex$701.71 0% | 7.1% | Mex$784.96 | Mex$624.40 | Mex$335.43 | 6 |
| Oct ’24 | n/a | Mex$704.39 0% | 9.3% | Mex$831.12 | Mex$618.92 | n/a | 6 |
| Sep ’24 | n/a | Mex$658.02 0% | 10.3% | Mex$786.20 | Mex$581.10 | n/a | 6 |
| Aug ’24 | n/a | Mex$534.09 0% | 8.2% | Mex$606.27 | Mex$471.54 | n/a | 7 |
| Jul ’24 | n/a | Mex$515.29 0% | 11.3% | Mex$584.00 | Mex$429.41 | n/a | 7 |
| Jun ’24 | n/a | Mex$522.30 0% | 11.9% | Mex$597.63 | Mex$439.44 | n/a | 7 |
| May ’24 | n/a | Mex$588.43 0% | 11.5% | Mex$707.67 | Mex$489.93 | n/a | 7 |
| Apr ’24 | n/a | Mex$588.45 0% | 11.8% | Mex$710.83 | Mex$473.89 | n/a | 7 |
| Mar ’24 | n/a | Mex$548.22 0% | 9.0% | Mex$606.41 | Mex$477.78 | n/a | 6 |
| Feb ’24 | n/a | Mex$525.54 0% | 10.0% | Mex$623.10 | Mex$453.16 | n/a | 6 |
| Jan ’24 | n/a | Mex$514.94 0% | 8.3% | Mex$574.35 | Mex$455.52 | n/a | 6 |
| Dec ’23 | n/a | Mex$524.66 0% | 7.8% | Mex$579.38 | Mex$463.50 | n/a | 6 |
| Nov ’23 | n/a | Mex$492.65 0% | 10.2% | Mex$555.47 | Mex$416.60 | n/a | 6 |
Analyst Forecast: Target price is more than 20% higher than the current share price, but analysts are not within a statistically confident range of agreement.
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