APA Valuation
Is APA * undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?
Valuation Score
4/6Valuation Score 4/6
Below Fair Value
Significantly Below Fair Value
Price-To-Earnings vs Peers
Price-To-Earnings vs Industry
Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio
Analyst Forecast
Share Price vs Fair Value
What is the Fair Price of APA * when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.
Below Fair Value: APA * (MX$450.81) is trading below our estimate of fair value (MX$773.47)
Significantly Below Fair Value: APA * is trading below fair value by more than 20%.
Key Valuation Metric
Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for APA *?
Key metric: As APA * is profitable we use its Price-To-Earnings Ratio for relative valuation analysis.
| What is APA *'s PE Ratio? | |
|---|---|
| PE Ratio | 3.8x |
| Earnings | US$2.22b |
| Market Cap | US$8.42b |
| Key Statistics | |
|---|---|
| Enterprise Value/Revenue | 1.8x |
| Enterprise Value/EBITDA | 3.1x |
| PEG Ratio | -0.4x |
Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers
How does APA *'s PE Ratio compare to its peers?
| Company | Forward PE | Estimated Growth | Market Cap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Peer Average | 11.9x | ||
VISTA A Vista Energy. de | 10.4x | 15.0% | Mex$110.0b |
VAR Vår Energi | 14.6x | 16.4% | NOK 93.0b |
OIL Oil India | 10.1x | 3.3% | ₹824.9b |
ARX ARC Resources | 12.6x | 13.2% | CA$15.9b |
APA * APA | 3.8x | -9.0% | Mex$8.4b |
Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: APA * is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (3.8x) compared to the peer average (11.8x).
Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry
How does APA *'s PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the Global Oil and Gas Industry?
| 30 Companies | Price / Earnings | Estimated Growth | Market Cap |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30 Companies | Estimated Growth | Market Cap | |
|---|---|---|---|
Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: APA * is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (3.8x) compared to the Global Oil and Gas industry average (10.7x).
Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio
What is APA *'s PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.
| Fair Ratio | |
|---|---|
| Current PE Ratio | 3.8x |
| Fair PE Ratio | n/a |
Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: Insufficient data to calculate APA *'s Price-To-Earnings Fair Ratio for valuation analysis.
Analyst Price Targets
What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?
| Date | Share Price | Average 1Y Price Target | Dispersion | High | Low | 1Y Actual price | Analysts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Current | Mex$450.81 | Mex$669.27 +48.5% | 22.4% | Mex$1,003.55 | Mex$471.06 | n/a | 30 |
| Nov ’25 | Mex$475.00 | Mex$690.57 +45.4% | 20.6% | Mex$979.54 | Mex$499.77 | n/a | 30 |
| Oct ’25 | Mex$481.30 | Mex$702.37 +45.9% | 19.7% | Mex$1,019.89 | Mex$529.56 | n/a | 30 |
| Sep ’25 | Mex$556.77 | Mex$751.11 +34.9% | 19.0% | Mex$1,119.45 | Mex$549.91 | n/a | 30 |
| Aug ’25 | Mex$579.20 | Mex$728.71 +25.8% | 18.9% | Mex$1,070.01 | Mex$506.85 | n/a | 30 |
| Jul ’25 | Mex$527.60 | Mex$735.07 +39.3% | 19.7% | Mex$1,052.41 | Mex$498.51 | n/a | 29 |
| Jun ’25 | Mex$488.01 | Mex$676.60 +38.6% | 19.8% | Mex$951.38 | Mex$450.65 | n/a | 29 |
| May ’25 | Mex$557.00 | Mex$712.29 +27.9% | 18.4% | Mex$993.35 | Mex$479.55 | n/a | 30 |
| Apr ’25 | Mex$556.08 | Mex$679.01 +22.1% | 18.2% | Mex$981.26 | Mex$498.95 | n/a | 25 |
| Mar ’25 | Mex$511.70 | Mex$711.57 +39.1% | 19.7% | Mex$1,106.21 | Mex$544.60 | n/a | 25 |
| Feb ’25 | Mex$554.69 | Mex$754.77 +36.1% | 20.3% | Mex$1,097.65 | Mex$548.83 | n/a | 25 |
| Jan ’25 | n/a | Mex$808.43 0% | 16.2% | Mex$1,038.97 | Mex$596.13 | n/a | 28 |
| Dec ’24 | Mex$625.00 | Mex$841.68 +34.7% | 16.3% | Mex$1,117.32 | Mex$584.45 | n/a | 28 |
| Nov ’24 | n/a | Mex$918.23 0% | 14.9% | Mex$1,171.94 | Mex$613.01 | Mex$475.00 | 28 |
| Oct ’24 | n/a | Mex$895.54 0% | 14.2% | Mex$1,149.43 | Mex$601.24 | Mex$481.30 | 28 |
| Sep ’24 | Mex$756.02 | Mex$855.79 +13.2% | 14.4% | Mex$1,110.93 | Mex$581.10 | Mex$556.77 | 28 |
| Aug ’24 | Mex$680.00 | Mex$775.11 +14.0% | 17.3% | Mex$1,100.39 | Mex$507.87 | Mex$579.20 | 28 |
| Jul ’24 | Mex$591.15 | Mex$808.42 +36.8% | 19.0% | Mex$1,181.25 | Mex$599.18 | Mex$527.60 | 27 |
| Jun ’24 | Mex$577.99 | Mex$840.48 +45.4% | 18.0% | Mex$1,218.53 | Mex$618.09 | Mex$488.01 | 27 |
| May ’24 | Mex$664.70 | Mex$892.59 +34.3% | 16.5% | Mex$1,303.02 | Mex$651.51 | Mex$557.00 | 28 |
| Apr ’24 | Mex$654.08 | Mex$896.25 +37.0% | 15.1% | Mex$1,174.04 | Mex$605.37 | Mex$556.08 | 28 |
| Mar ’24 | n/a | Mex$929.95 0% | 12.9% | Mex$1,158.59 | Mex$706.01 | Mex$511.70 | 27 |
| Feb ’24 | Mex$788.00 | Mex$983.59 +24.8% | 15.5% | Mex$1,322.09 | Mex$651.74 | Mex$554.69 | 28 |
| Jan ’24 | Mex$894.61 | Mex$1,064.89 +19.0% | 16.4% | Mex$1,379.79 | Mex$680.18 | n/a | 27 |
| Dec ’23 | n/a | Mex$1,047.02 0% | 17.9% | Mex$1,369.60 | Mex$578.70 | Mex$625.00 | 27 |
| Nov ’23 | Mex$915.00 | Mex$1,042.49 +13.9% | 18.5% | Mex$1,494.74 | Mex$597.90 | n/a | 26 |
Analyst Forecast: Target price is more than 20% higher than the current share price, but analysts are not within a statistically confident range of agreement.
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