Consorcio ARA S. A. B. de C. V Valuation

Q: What is the Fair Price of ARA * when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

ARA * (MX$3.31) is trading below our estimate of [[fair value]] (MX$3.61)

Is ARA * undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

4/6

Valuation Score 4/6

Below Fair Value
Significantly Below Fair Value
Price-To-Earnings vs Peers
Price-To-Earnings vs Industry
Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio
Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of ARA * when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: ARA * (MX$3.31) is trading below our estimate of fair value (MX$3.61)

Significantly Below Fair Value: ARA * is trading below fair value, but not by a significant amount.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for ARA *?

Key metric: As ARA * is profitable we use its Price-To-Earnings Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Earnings ratio for ARA *. This is calculated by dividing ARA *'s market cap by their current earnings.
What is ARA *'s PE Ratio?
PE Ratio	6.3x
Earnings	Mex$640.38m
Market Cap	Mex$4.04b

ARA * key valuation metrics and ratios. From Price to Earnings, Price to Sales and Price to Book to Price to Earnings Growth Ratio, Enterprise Value and EBITDA.
Key Statistics
Enterprise Value/Revenue	0.6x
Enterprise Value/EBITDA	5.9x
PEG Ratio	0.6x

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does ARA *'s PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for ARA * vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
Company	Forward PE	Estimated Growth	Market Cap
Peer Average	7.4x
JAVER * Servicios Corporativos Javer. de	4.5x	13.3%	Mex$3.3b
VINTE * Vinte Viviendas Integrales. de	17.5x	17.2%	Mex$7.5b
URBI * Urbi Desarrollos Urbanos. de	1.8x	n/a	Mex$1.3b
CADU A Corpovael. de	5.7x	22.1%	Mex$1.1b
ARA * Consorcio ARA S. A. B. de C. V	6.3x	10.2%	Mex$4.0b

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: ARA * is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (6.3x) compared to the peer average (7.4x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does ARA *'s PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the South American Consumer Durables Industry?

2 Companies	Price / Earnings	Estimated Growth	Market Cap

2 Companies		Estimated Growth	Market Cap

No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: ARA * is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (6.3x) compared to the Global Consumer Durables industry average (15.7x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is ARA *'s PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

ARA * PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio	6.3x
Fair PE Ratio	7.3x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: ARA * is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (6.3x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (7.3x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst ARA * forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
Date	Share Price	Average 1Y Price Target	Dispersion	High	Low	1Y Actual price	Analysts
Current	Mex$3.31	Mex$6.72 +102.9%	61.0%	Mex$12.50	Mex$3.55	n/a	3
Nov ’25	Mex$3.17	Mex$6.72 +111.9%	61.0%	Mex$12.50	Mex$3.55	n/a	3
Oct ’25	Mex$3.06	Mex$6.77 +121.1%	60.0%	Mex$12.50	Mex$3.70	n/a	3
Sep ’25	Mex$3.08	Mex$6.77 +119.7%	60.0%	Mex$12.50	Mex$3.70	n/a	3
Aug ’25	Mex$3.10	Mex$6.77 +118.3%	60.0%	Mex$12.50	Mex$3.70	n/a	3
Jul ’25	Mex$3.06	Mex$8.10 +164.7%	54.3%	Mex$12.50	Mex$3.70	n/a	2
Jun ’25	Mex$3.13	Mex$8.10 +158.8%	54.3%	Mex$12.50	Mex$3.70	n/a	2
May ’25	Mex$3.32	Mex$3.85 +16.0%	3.9%	Mex$4.00	Mex$3.70	n/a	2
Apr ’25	Mex$3.19	Mex$4.73 +48.4%	26.5%	Mex$6.50	Mex$3.70	n/a	3
Mar ’25	Mex$3.35	Mex$4.90 +46.3%	23.1%	Mex$6.50	Mex$4.00	n/a	3
Feb ’25	Mex$3.81	Mex$4.90 +28.6%	23.1%	Mex$6.50	Mex$4.00	n/a	3
Jan ’25	Mex$3.67	Mex$4.90 +33.5%	23.1%	Mex$6.50	Mex$4.00	n/a	3
Dec ’24	Mex$3.22	Mex$4.90 +52.2%	23.1%	Mex$6.50	Mex$4.00	n/a	3
Nov ’24	Mex$3.36	Mex$4.77 +41.9%	26.2%	Mex$6.50	Mex$3.60	Mex$3.17	3
Oct ’24	Mex$3.61	Mex$4.95 +37.1%	24.1%	Mex$6.50	Mex$3.60	Mex$3.06	3
Sep ’24	Mex$3.76	Mex$6.71 +78.5%	48.0%	Mex$12.00	Mex$3.60	Mex$3.08	4
Aug ’24	Mex$4.04	Mex$6.71 +66.2%	48.0%	Mex$12.00	Mex$3.60	Mex$3.10	4
Jul ’24	Mex$3.90	Mex$6.39 +63.8%	51.5%	Mex$12.00	Mex$3.60	Mex$3.06	4
Jun ’24	Mex$3.78	Mex$6.39 +69.0%	51.5%	Mex$12.00	Mex$3.60	Mex$3.13	4
May ’24	Mex$3.86	Mex$6.39 +65.5%	51.5%	Mex$12.00	Mex$3.60	Mex$3.32	4
Apr ’24	Mex$3.82	Mex$7.28 +90.7%	46.0%	Mex$12.00	Mex$4.50	Mex$3.19	3
Mar ’24	Mex$3.92	Mex$4.93 +25.6%	8.6%	Mex$5.35	Mex$4.50	Mex$3.35	2
Feb ’24	Mex$4.17	Mex$4.93 +18.1%	8.6%	Mex$5.35	Mex$4.50	Mex$3.81	2
Jan ’24	Mex$3.20	Mex$4.48 +39.8%	19.6%	Mex$5.35	Mex$3.60	Mex$3.67	2
Dec ’23	Mex$3.16	Mex$4.48 +41.6%	19.6%	Mex$5.35	Mex$3.60	Mex$3.22	2
Nov ’23	Mex$3.20	Mex$4.48 +39.8%	19.6%	Mex$5.35	Mex$3.60	Mex$3.36	2

Analyst Forecast: Target price is more than 20% higher than the current share price, but analysts are not within a statistically confident range of agreement.