Stock Analysis
- Mexico
- /
- Industrials
- /
- BMV:ALFA A
Alfa. de's (BMV:ALFAA) investors will be pleased with their decent 35% return over the last year
The simplest way to invest in stocks is to buy exchange traded funds. But if you pick the right individual stocks, you could make more than that. For example, the Alfa S.A.B. de C.V. (BMV:ALFAA) share price is up 27% in the last 1 year, clearly besting the market return of around 6.2% (not including dividends). So that should have shareholders smiling. Zooming out, the stock is actually down 7.5% in the last three years.
So let's investigate and see if the longer term performance of the company has been in line with the underlying business' progress.
Check out our latest analysis for Alfa. de
In his essay The Superinvestors of Graham-and-Doddsville Warren Buffett described how share prices do not always rationally reflect the value of a business. One way to examine how market sentiment has changed over time is to look at the interaction between a company's share price and its earnings per share (EPS).
During the last year Alfa. de saw its earnings per share (EPS) drop below zero. While some may see this as temporary, we're a skeptical bunch, and so we're a little surprised to see the share price go up. It may be that the company has done well on other metrics.
We doubt the modest 1.2% dividend yield is doing much to support the share price. Unfortunately Alfa. de's fell 16% over twelve months. So the fundamental metrics don't provide an obvious explanation for the share price gain.
The image below shows how earnings and revenue have tracked over time (if you click on the image you can see greater detail).
This free interactive report on Alfa. de's balance sheet strength is a great place to start, if you want to investigate the stock further.
What About Dividends?
When looking at investment returns, it is important to consider the difference between total shareholder return (TSR) and share price return. The TSR is a return calculation that accounts for the value of cash dividends (assuming that any dividend received was reinvested) and the calculated value of any discounted capital raisings and spin-offs. It's fair to say that the TSR gives a more complete picture for stocks that pay a dividend. As it happens, Alfa. de's TSR for the last 1 year was 35%, which exceeds the share price return mentioned earlier. This is largely a result of its dividend payments!
A Different Perspective
It's good to see that Alfa. de has rewarded shareholders with a total shareholder return of 35% in the last twelve months. That's including the dividend. That's better than the annualised return of 5% over half a decade, implying that the company is doing better recently. Given the share price momentum remains strong, it might be worth taking a closer look at the stock, lest you miss an opportunity. While it is well worth considering the different impacts that market conditions can have on the share price, there are other factors that are even more important. Even so, be aware that Alfa. de is showing 3 warning signs in our investment analysis , and 2 of those are potentially serious...
If you are like me, then you will not want to miss this free list of undervalued small caps that insiders are buying.
Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on Mexican exchanges.
New: Manage All Your Stock Portfolios in One Place
We've created the ultimate portfolio companion for stock investors, and it's free.
• Connect an unlimited number of Portfolios and see your total in one currency
• Be alerted to new Warning Signs or Risks via email or mobile
• Track the Fair Value of your stocks
Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.
This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
About BMV:ALFA A
Alfa. de
Engages in the petrochemical and synthetic fiber and refrigerated food businesses in Mexico.