Analysts Have Made A Financial Statement On Nemak, S. A. B. de C. V.'s (BMV:NEMAKA) First-Quarter Report

Shareholders of Nemak, S. A. B. de C. V. (BMV:NEMAKA) will be pleased this week, given that the stock price is up 10% to Mex$2.88 following its latest quarterly results. Revenues came in 2.9% below expectations, at US$1.2b. Statutory earnings per share were relatively better off, with a per-share profit of US$0.0083 being roughly in line with analyst estimates. Earnings are an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance, look at what the analysts are forecasting for next year, and see if there's been a change in sentiment towards the company. With this in mind, we've gathered the latest statutory forecasts to see what the analysts are expecting for next year.

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Taking into account the latest results, the most recent consensus for Nemak S. A. B. de C. V from five analysts is for revenues of US$5.10b in 2025. If met, it would imply an okay 3.9% increase on its revenue over the past 12 months. Earnings are expected to improve, with Nemak S. A. B. de C. V forecast to report a statutory profit of US$0.023 per share. Before this earnings report, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of US$5.08b and earnings per share (EPS) of US$0.034 in 2025. So there's definitely been a decline in sentiment after the latest results, noting the pretty serious reduction to new EPS forecasts.

View our latest analysis for Nemak S. A. B. de C. V

It might be a surprise to learn that the consensus price target was broadly unchanged at Mex$6.00, with the analysts clearly implying that the forecast decline in earnings is not expected to have much of an impact on valuation. It could also be instructive to look at the range of analyst estimates, to evaluate how different the outlier opinions are from the mean. There are some variant perceptions on Nemak S. A. B. de C. V, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at Mex$9.50 and the most bearish at Mex$4.00 per share. This is a fairly broad spread of estimates, suggesting that analysts are forecasting a wide range of possible outcomes for the business.

Another way we can view these estimates is in the context of the bigger picture, such as how the forecasts stack up against past performance, and whether forecasts are more or less bullish relative to other companies in the industry. We would highlight that Nemak S. A. B. de C. V's revenue growth is expected to slow, with the forecast 5.2% annualised growth rate until the end of 2025 being well below the historical 11% p.a. growth over the last five years. By way of comparison, the other companies in this industry with analyst coverage are forecast to grow their revenue at 11% per year. So it's pretty clear that, while revenue growth is expected to slow down, the wider industry is also expected to grow faster than Nemak S. A. B. de C. V.

The Bottom Line

The biggest concern is that the analysts reduced their earnings per share estimates, suggesting business headwinds could lay ahead for Nemak S. A. B. de C. V. On the plus side, there were no major changes to revenue estimates; although forecasts imply they will perform worse than the wider industry. The consensus price target held steady at Mex$6.00, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.

Keeping that in mind, we still think that the longer term trajectory of the business is much more important for investors to consider. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for Nemak S. A. B. de C. V going out to 2027, and you can see them free on our platform here..

And what about risks? Every company has them, and we've spotted 1 warning sign for Nemak S. A. B. de C. V you should know about.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.