AS Virsi-A (RISE:VIRSI) - Share price, News & Analysis

Q: What is the Fair Price of VIRSI when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

VIRSI (€4.5) is trading below our estimate of [[fair value]] (€33.72)

VIRSI fundamental analysis
Snowflake Score
Valuation	4/6
Future Growth	0/6
Past Performance	4/6
Financial Health	3/6
Dividends	0/6

VIRSI Stock Overview

AS "Virsi-A", together with its subsidiaries, engages in the retail and wholesale of oil products, and retail sales of goods in Latvia.

Rewards

Trading at 86.7% below our estimate of its fair value

Earnings grew by 85% over the past year

Risk Analysis

Debt is not well covered by operating cash flow

High level of non-cash earnings

Does not have a meaningful market cap (€68M)

AS Virsi-A Competitors

Automobile Réseau Tunisien et Services

BVMT:ARTES

د.ت221.9m

Daimaru Enawin

TSE:9818

JP¥9.5b

WILLPLUS Holdings

TSE:3538

JP¥9.9b

City Cars

BVMT:CITY

د.ت205.6m

Price History & Performance

Summary of all time highs, changes and price drops for AS Virsi-A
Historical stock prices
Current Share Price	€4.50
52 Week High	€6.40
52 Week Low	€3.95
Beta	0
1 Month Change	3.09%
3 Month Change	3.21%
1 Year Change	n/a
3 Year Change	n/a
5 Year Change	n/a
Change since IPO	-2.39%

Shareholder Returns

	VIRSI	LV Specialty Retail	LV Market
7D	2.4%	3.2%	0.2%
1Y	n/a	-22.0%	-19.4%

Return vs Industry: Insufficient data to determine how VIRSI performed against the LV Specialty Retail industry.

Return vs Market: Insufficient data to determine how VIRSI performed against the LV Market.

Price Volatility

Is VIRSI's price volatile compared to industry and market?
VIRSI volatility
VIRSI Average Weekly Movement	1.3%
Specialty Retail Industry Average Movement	5.5%
Market Average Movement	3.0%
10% most volatile stocks in LV Market	3.6%
10% least volatile stocks in LV Market	1.4%

Stable Share Price: VIRSI is less volatile than 75% of LV stocks over the past 3 months, typically moving +/- 1% a week.

Volatility Over Time: VIRSI's weekly volatility (1%) has been stable over the past year.

About the Company

Founded	Employees	CEO	Website
1995	640	Janis Viba	https://www.virsi.lv

AS "Virsi-A", together with its subsidiaries, engages in the retail and wholesale of oil products, and retail sales of goods in Latvia. It provides various fuels, such as diesel, gas, petrol, and compressed natural gas, as well as rental of trailers and car wash services. The company also offers coffee, pizza, burgers, kebabs, hot dogs, sushi, pastries, snacks, burritos, grilled sandwiches, cottage cheese scones, salads, and broccoli gratens.

AS Virsi-A Fundamentals Summary

How do AS Virsi-A's earnings and revenue compare to its market cap?
VIRSI fundamental statistics
Market Cap	€67.91m
Earnings (TTM)	€9.58m
Revenue (TTM)	€278.76m

7.1x

P/E Ratio

0.2x

P/S Ratio

Is VIRSI overvalued?

See Fair Value and valuation analysis

Earnings & Revenue

Key profitability statistics from the latest earnings report
VIRSI income statement (TTM)
Revenue	€278.76m
Cost of Revenue	€250.91m
Gross Profit	€27.85m
Other Expenses	€18.27m
Earnings	€9.58m

Last Reported Earnings

Jun 30, 2022

Next Earnings Date

Oct 19, 2022

Earnings per share (EPS)	0.63
Gross Margin	9.99%
Net Profit Margin	3.44%
Debt/Equity Ratio	53.3%

How did VIRSI perform over the long term?

See historical performance and comparison

We’ve recently updated our valuation analysis.

Valuation

Is VIRSI undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

4/6

Valuation Score 4/6

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers
Price-To-Earnings vs Industry
Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio
Below Fair Value
Significantly Below Fair Value
Analyst Forecast

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for VIRSI?

Other financial metrics that can be useful for relative valuation.

The above table shows the n/a ratio for VIRSI. This is calculated by dividing VIRSI's market cap by their current preferred multiple.
What is VIRSI's n/a Ratio?
n/a Ratio	0x
n/a	n/a
Market Cap	€67.91m

VIRSI key valuation metrics and ratios. From Price to Earnings, Price to Sales and Price to Book to Price to Earnings Growth Ratio, Enterprise Value and EBITDA.
Key Statistics
Enterprise Value/Revenue	0.3x
Enterprise Value/EBITDA	8.4x
PEG Ratio	n/a

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does VIRSI's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

VIRSI PE Ratio vs Peers

The above table shows the PE ratio for VIRSI vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
Company	PE	Estimated Growth	Market Cap
Peer Average	7.3x
ARTES Automobile Réseau Tunisien et Services	5.4x	-2.5%	د.ت221.9m
9818 Daimaru Enawin	11.1x	n/a	JP¥9.5b
3538 WILLPLUS Holdings	6.4x	10.8%	JP¥9.9b
CITY City Cars	6.2x	1.0%	د.ت205.6m
VIRSI AS Virsi-A	7.1x	n/a	€67.9m

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: VIRSI is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (7.1x) compared to the peer average (7.3x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does VIRSI's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the European Specialty Retail Industry?

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: VIRSI is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (7.1x) compared to the European Specialty Retail industry average (11.1x)

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is VIRSI's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

VIRSI PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio	7.1x
Fair PE Ratio	n/a

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: Insufficient data to calculate VIRSI's Price-To-Earnings Fair Ratio for valuation analysis.

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of VIRSI when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: VIRSI (€4.5) is trading below our estimate of fair value (€33.72)

Significantly Below Fair Value: VIRSI is trading below fair value by more than 20%.

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

Analyst Forecast: Insufficient data to show price forecast.

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Future Growth

How is AS Virsi-A forecast to perform in the next 1 to 3 years based on estimates from 1 analyst?

Future Growth Score

0/6

Future Growth Score 0/6

Earnings vs Savings Rate
Earnings vs Market
High Growth Earnings
Revenue vs Market
High Growth Revenue
Future ROE

-6.6%

Forecasted annual revenue growth

Earnings and Revenue Growth Forecasts

Analyst Future Growth Forecasts

Earnings vs Savings Rate: Insufficient data to determine if VIRSI's forecast earnings growth is above the savings rate (0.6%).

Earnings vs Market: Insufficient data to determine if VIRSI's earnings are forecast to grow faster than the LV market

High Growth Earnings: Insufficient data to determine if VIRSI's earnings are expected to grow significantly over the next 3 years.

Revenue vs Market: VIRSI's revenue is expected to decline over the next 3 years (-6.6% per year).

High Growth Revenue: VIRSI's revenue is forecast to decline over the next 3 years (-6.6% per year).

Earnings per Share Growth Forecasts

Future Return on Equity

Future ROE: Insufficient data to determine if VIRSI's Return on Equity is forecast to be high in 3 years time

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Past Performance

How has AS Virsi-A performed over the past 5 years?

Past Performance Score

4/6

Past Performance Score 4/6

Quality Earnings
Growing Profit Margin
Earnings Trend
Accelerating Growth
Earnings vs Industry
High ROE

21.4%

Historical annual earnings growth

Earnings and Revenue History

Quality Earnings: VIRSI has a high level of non-cash earnings.

Growing Profit Margin: VIRSI's current net profit margins (3.4%) are higher than last year (2.8%).

Past Earnings Growth Analysis

Earnings Trend: VIRSI's earnings have grown significantly by 21.4% per year over the past 5 years.

Accelerating Growth: VIRSI's earnings growth over the past year (85%) exceeds its 5-year average (21.4% per year).

Earnings vs Industry: VIRSI earnings growth over the past year (85%) exceeded the Specialty Retail industry 37%.

Return on Equity

High ROE: VIRSI's Return on Equity (17.5%) is considered low.

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Financial Health

How is AS Virsi-A's financial position?

Financial Health Score

3/6

Financial Health Score 3/6

Short Term Liabilities
Long Term Liabilities
Debt Level
Reducing Debt
Debt Coverage
Interest Coverage

Financial Position Analysis

Short Term Liabilities: VIRSI's short term assets (€50.3M) exceed its short term liabilities (€40.5M).

Long Term Liabilities: VIRSI's short term assets (€50.3M) exceed its long term liabilities (€34.5M).

Debt to Equity History and Analysis

Debt Level: VIRSI's net debt to equity ratio (42.8%) is considered high.

Reducing Debt: VIRSI's debt to equity ratio has increased from 23% to 53.3% over the past 5 years.

Debt Coverage: VIRSI's debt is not well covered by operating cash flow (14.9%).

Interest Coverage: VIRSI earns more interest than it pays, so coverage of interest payments is not a concern.

Balance Sheet

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Dividend

What is AS Virsi-A current dividend yield, its reliability and sustainability?

Dividend Score

0/6

Dividend Score 0/6

Notable Dividend
High Dividend
Stable Dividend
Growing Dividend
Earnings Coverage
Cash Flow Coverage

Dividend Yield vs Market

Notable Dividend: Unable to evaluate VIRSI's dividend yield against the bottom 25% of dividend payers, as the company has not reported any recent payouts.

High Dividend: Unable to evaluate VIRSI's dividend yield against the top 25% of dividend payers, as the company has not reported any recent payouts.

Stability and Growth of Payments

Stable Dividend: Insufficient data to determine if VIRSI's dividends per share have been stable in the past.

Growing Dividend: Insufficient data to determine if VIRSI's dividend payments have been increasing.

Earnings Payout to Shareholders

Earnings Coverage: Insufficient data to calculate payout ratio to determine if its dividend payments are covered by earnings.

Cash Payout to Shareholders

Cash Flow Coverage: Unable to calculate sustainability of dividends as VIRSI has not reported any payouts.

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Management

How experienced are the management team and are they aligned to shareholders interests?

1.3yrs

Average management tenure

CEO

Janis Viba

1.33yrs

Tenure

Janis Viba is Chairman of The Board of AS "Virsi-A" since April 13, 2021.

Leadership Team

Experienced Management: VIRSI's management team is not considered experienced ( 1.3 years average tenure), which suggests a new team.

Board Members

Experienced Board: VIRSI's board of directors are not considered experienced ( 1.3 years average tenure), which suggests a new board.

Ownership

Who are the major shareholders and have insiders been buying or selling?

Insider Trading Volume

Insider Buying: Insufficient data to determine if insiders have bought more shares than they have sold in the past 3 months.

Ownership Breakdown

Dilution of Shares: VIRSI only recently listed within the past 12 months.

Data	Last Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis	2022/08/15 00:00
End of Day Share Price	2022/08/15 00:00
Earnings	2022/06/30
Annual Earnings	2021/12/31