Korea Petroleum Industries Company's (KRX:004090) 36% Price Boost Is Out Of Tune With Earnings

Despite an already strong run, Korea Petroleum Industries Company (KRX:004090) shares have been powering on, with a gain of 36% in the last thirty days. The last month tops off a massive increase of 117% in the last year.

After such a large jump in price, Korea Petroleum Industries' price-to-earnings (or "P/E") ratio of 19.1x might make it look like a sell right now compared to the market in Korea, where around half of the companies have P/E ratios below 12x and even P/E's below 6x are quite common. However, the P/E might be high for a reason and it requires further investigation to determine if it's justified.

Korea Petroleum Industries certainly has been doing a great job lately as it's been growing earnings at a really rapid pace. It seems that many are expecting the strong earnings performance to beat most other companies over the coming period, which has increased investors’ willingness to pay up for the stock. If not, then existing shareholders might be a little nervous about the viability of the share price.

Check out our latest analysis for Korea Petroleum Industries

We don't have analyst forecasts, but you can see how recent trends are setting up the company for the future by checking out our free report on Korea Petroleum Industries' earnings, revenue and cash flow.

What Are Growth Metrics Telling Us About The High P/E?

In order to justify its P/E ratio, Korea Petroleum Industries would need to produce impressive growth in excess of the market.

Taking a look back first, we see that the company grew earnings per share by an impressive 78% last year. The latest three year period has also seen an excellent 107% overall rise in EPS, aided by its short-term performance. So we can start by confirming that the company has done a great job of growing earnings over that time.

Weighing that recent medium-term earnings trajectory against the broader market's one-year forecast for expansion of 33% shows it's noticeably less attractive on an annualised basis.

In light of this, it's alarming that Korea Petroleum Industries' P/E sits above the majority of other companies. Apparently many investors in the company are way more bullish than recent times would indicate and aren't willing to let go of their stock at any price. Only the boldest would assume these prices are sustainable as a continuation of recent earnings trends is likely to weigh heavily on the share price eventually.

What We Can Learn From Korea Petroleum Industries' P/E?

Korea Petroleum Industries' P/E is getting right up there since its shares have risen strongly. We'd say the price-to-earnings ratio's power isn't primarily as a valuation instrument but rather to gauge current investor sentiment and future expectations.

Our examination of Korea Petroleum Industries revealed its three-year earnings trends aren't impacting its high P/E anywhere near as much as we would have predicted, given they look worse than current market expectations. When we see weak earnings with slower than market growth, we suspect the share price is at risk of declining, sending the high P/E lower. Unless the recent medium-term conditions improve markedly, it's very challenging to accept these prices as being reasonable.

Before you settle on your opinion, we've discovered 2 warning signs for Korea Petroleum Industries that you should be aware of.

It's important to make sure you look for a great company, not just the first idea you come across. So take a peek at this free list of interesting companies with strong recent earnings growth (and a low P/E).

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.