Calculating The Fair Value Of Huvitz Co., Ltd. (KOSDAQ:065510)

Key Insights

• Huvitz's estimated fair value is ₩18,879 based on 2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity
• With ₩15,530 share price, Huvitz appears to be trading close to its estimated fair value
• Peers of Huvitz are currently trading on average at a 233% premium

Today we will run through one way of estimating the intrinsic value of Huvitz Co., Ltd. (KOSDAQ:065510) by taking the expected future cash flows and discounting them to today's value. We will use the Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) model on this occasion. There's really not all that much to it, even though it might appear quite complex.

We generally believe that a company's value is the present value of all of the cash it will generate in the future. However, a DCF is just one valuation metric among many, and it is not without flaws. If you want to learn more about discounted cash flow, the rationale behind this calculation can be read in detail in the Simply Wall St analysis model.

See our latest analysis for Huvitz

The Method

We use what is known as a 2-stage model, which simply means we have two different periods of growth rates for the company's cash flows. Generally the first stage is higher growth, and the second stage is a lower growth phase. In the first stage we need to estimate the cash flows to the business over the next ten years. Where possible we use analyst estimates, but when these aren't available we extrapolate the previous free cash flow (FCF) from the last estimate or reported value. We assume companies with shrinking free cash flow will slow their rate of shrinkage, and that companies with growing free cash flow will see their growth rate slow, over this period. We do this to reflect that growth tends to slow more in the early years than it does in later years.

A DCF is all about the idea that a dollar in the future is less valuable than a dollar today, so we discount the value of these future cash flows to their estimated value in today's dollars:

10-year free cash flow (FCF) forecast

	2024	2025	2026	2027	2028	2029	2030	2031	2032	2033
Levered FCF (₩, Millions)	₩14.4b	₩13.5b	₩13.0b	₩12.8b	₩12.8b	₩12.8b	₩12.9b	₩13.1b	₩13.4b	₩13.6b
Growth Rate Estimate Source	Analyst x1	Analyst x1	Est @ -3.43%	Est @ -1.68%	Est @ -0.45%	Est @ 0.41%	Est @ 1.01%	Est @ 1.43%	Est @ 1.72%	Est @ 1.93%
Present Value (₩, Millions) Discounted @ 8.0%	₩13.3k	₩11.6k	₩10.4k	₩9.4k	₩8.7k	₩8.1k	₩7.6k	₩7.1k	₩6.7k	₩6.3k

("Est" = FCF growth rate estimated by Simply Wall St)
Present Value of 10-year Cash Flow (PVCF) = ₩89b

We now need to calculate the Terminal Value, which accounts for all the future cash flows after this ten year period. For a number of reasons a very conservative growth rate is used that cannot exceed that of a country's GDP growth. In this case we have used the 5-year average of the 10-year government bond yield (2.4%) to estimate future growth. In the same way as with the 10-year 'growth' period, we discount future cash flows to today's value, using a cost of equity of 8.0%.

Terminal Value (TV)= FCF₂₀₃₃ × (1 + g) ÷ (r – g) = ₩14b× (1 + 2.4%) ÷ (8.0%– 2.4%) = ₩250b

Present Value of Terminal Value (PVTV)= TV / (1 + r)¹⁰= ₩250b÷ ( 1 + 8.0%)¹⁰= ₩116b

The total value, or equity value, is then the sum of the present value of the future cash flows, which in this case is ₩205b. In the final step we divide the equity value by the number of shares outstanding. Relative to the current share price of ₩16k, the company appears about fair value at a 18% discount to where the stock price trades currently. Valuations are imprecise instruments though, rather like a telescope - move a few degrees and end up in a different galaxy. Do keep this in mind.

Important Assumptions

The calculation above is very dependent on two assumptions. The first is the discount rate and the other is the cash flows. Part of investing is coming up with your own evaluation of a company's future performance, so try the calculation yourself and check your own assumptions. The DCF also does not consider the possible cyclicality of an industry, or a company's future capital requirements, so it does not give a full picture of a company's potential performance. Given that we are looking at Huvitz as potential shareholders, the cost of equity is used as the discount rate, rather than the cost of capital (or weighted average cost of capital, WACC) which accounts for debt. In this calculation we've used 8.0%, which is based on a levered beta of 1.049. Beta is a measure of a stock's volatility, compared to the market as a whole. We get our beta from the industry average beta of globally comparable companies, with an imposed limit between 0.8 and 2.0, which is a reasonable range for a stable business.

SWOT Analysis for Huvitz

Next Steps:

Valuation is only one side of the coin in terms of building your investment thesis, and it shouldn't be the only metric you look at when researching a company. The DCF model is not a perfect stock valuation tool. Instead the best use for a DCF model is to test certain assumptions and theories to see if they would lead to the company being undervalued or overvalued. If a company grows at a different rate, or if its cost of equity or risk free rate changes sharply, the output can look very different. For Huvitz, there are three relevant factors you should explore:

1. Risks: Every company has them, and we've spotted 2 warning signs for Huvitz you should know about.
2. Future Earnings: How does A065510's growth rate compare to its peers and the wider market? Dig deeper into the analyst consensus number for the upcoming years by interacting with our free analyst growth expectation chart.
3. Other High Quality Alternatives: Do you like a good all-rounder? Explore our interactive list of high quality stocks to get an idea of what else is out there you may be missing!

PS. Simply Wall St updates its DCF calculation for every South Korean stock every day, so if you want to find the intrinsic value of any other stock just search here.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.