Howard Marks put it nicely when he said that, rather than worrying about share price volatility, 'The possibility of permanent loss is the risk I worry about... and every practical investor I know worries about.' It's only natural to consider a company's balance sheet when you examine how risky it is, since debt is often involved when a business collapses. We can see that BGF Co., Ltd. (KRX:027410) does use debt in its business. But the more important question is: how much risk is that debt creating?
When Is Debt Dangerous?
Debt and other liabilities become risky for a business when it cannot easily fulfill those obligations, either with free cash flow or by raising capital at an attractive price. In the worst case scenario, a company can go bankrupt if it cannot pay its creditors. While that is not too common, we often do see indebted companies permanently diluting shareholders because lenders force them to raise capital at a distressed price. Having said that, the most common situation is where a company manages its debt reasonably well - and to its own advantage. The first step when considering a company's debt levels is to consider its cash and debt together.
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What Is BGF's Net Debt?
As you can see below, BGF had ₩13.7b of debt at December 2020, down from ₩27.6b a year prior. However, its balance sheet shows it holds ₩274.4b in cash, so it actually has ₩260.8b net cash.
How Strong Is BGF's Balance Sheet?
Zooming in on the latest balance sheet data, we can see that BGF had liabilities of ₩57.6b due within 12 months and liabilities of ₩63.5b due beyond that. On the other hand, it had cash of ₩274.4b and ₩15.5b worth of receivables due within a year. So it actually has ₩168.8b more liquid assets than total liabilities.
It's good to see that BGF has plenty of liquidity on its balance sheet, suggesting conservative management of liabilities. Because it has plenty of assets, it is unlikely to have trouble with its lenders. Succinctly put, BGF boasts net cash, so it's fair to say it does not have a heavy debt load!
It is just as well that BGF's load is not too heavy, because its EBIT was down 44% over the last year. Falling earnings (if the trend continues) could eventually make even modest debt quite risky. When analysing debt levels, the balance sheet is the obvious place to start. But it is future earnings, more than anything, that will determine BGF's ability to maintain a healthy balance sheet going forward. So if you want to see what the professionals think, you might find this free report on analyst profit forecasts to be interesting.
Finally, a business needs free cash flow to pay off debt; accounting profits just don't cut it. While BGF has net cash on its balance sheet, it's still worth taking a look at its ability to convert earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) to free cash flow, to help us understand how quickly it is building (or eroding) that cash balance. During the last three years, BGF burned a lot of cash. While that may be a result of expenditure for growth, it does make the debt far more risky.
Summing up
While it is always sensible to investigate a company's debt, in this case BGF has ₩260.8b in net cash and a decent-looking balance sheet. So we don't have any problem with BGF's use of debt. The balance sheet is clearly the area to focus on when you are analysing debt. But ultimately, every company can contain risks that exist outside of the balance sheet. These risks can be hard to spot. Every company has them, and we've spotted 3 warning signs for BGF you should know about.
At the end of the day, it's often better to focus on companies that are free from net debt. You can access our special list of such companies (all with a track record of profit growth). It's free.
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About KOSE:A027410
BGF
Engages in the courier, advertising, delivery, data processing, and e-commerce businesses in South Korea.
Solid track record with excellent balance sheet.