Toho Gas Co., Ltd.

TSE:9533 Stock Report

Market Cap: JP¥389.5b

Toho Gas Valuation

Is 9533 undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

2/6

Valuation Score 2/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Peers

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Industry

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of 9533 when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: 9533 (¥3874) is trading below our estimate of fair value (¥4859.42)

Significantly Below Fair Value: 9533 is trading below fair value by more than 20%.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for 9533?

Key metric: As 9533 is profitable we use its Price-To-Earnings Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Earnings ratio for 9533. This is calculated by dividing 9533's market cap by their current earnings.
What is 9533's PE Ratio?
PE Ratio18.9x
EarningsJP¥20.70b
Market CapJP¥389.54b

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does 9533's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for 9533 vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PEEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average17.9x
8174 Nippon Gas
25x10.2%JP¥228.3b
9532 Osaka Gas
13.9x4.9%JP¥1.3t
9531 Tokyo GasLtd
20.8x9.3%JP¥1.8t
1663 K&O Energy Group
11.9x-15.9%JP¥79.9b
9533 Toho Gas
18.9x3.1%JP¥389.5b

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: 9533 is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (18.9x) compared to the peer average (17.9x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does 9533's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the Asian Gas Utilities Industry?

0 CompaniesPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
9533 18.9xIndustry Avg. 13.4xNo. of Companies13PE01020304050+
0 CompaniesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: 9533 is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (18.9x) compared to the Asian Gas Utilities industry average (13.4x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is 9533's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

9533 PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio18.9x
Fair PE Ratio8.1x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: 9533 is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (18.9x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (8.1x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst 9533 forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
CurrentJP¥3,874.00
JP¥4,145.00
+7.0%
37.0%JP¥5,680.00JP¥2,610.00n/a2
Nov ’25JP¥3,800.00
JP¥4,120.00
+8.4%
37.9%JP¥5,680.00JP¥2,560.00n/a2
Oct ’25JP¥4,013.00
JP¥4,120.00
+2.7%
37.9%JP¥5,680.00JP¥2,560.00n/a2
Sep ’25JP¥4,294.00
JP¥4,120.00
-4.1%
37.9%JP¥5,680.00JP¥2,560.00n/a2
Aug ’25JP¥4,588.00
JP¥2,905.00
-36.7%
14.6%JP¥3,330.00JP¥2,480.00n/a2
Jul ’25JP¥3,874.00
JP¥2,905.00
-25.0%
14.6%JP¥3,330.00JP¥2,480.00n/a2
Jun ’25JP¥4,124.00
JP¥2,905.00
-29.6%
14.6%JP¥3,330.00JP¥2,480.00n/a2
May ’25JP¥4,060.00
JP¥2,730.00
-32.8%
22.0%JP¥3,330.00JP¥2,130.00n/a2
Apr ’25JP¥3,366.00
JP¥2,730.00
-18.9%
22.0%JP¥3,330.00JP¥2,130.00n/a2
Mar ’25JP¥3,005.00
JP¥2,730.00
-9.2%
22.0%JP¥3,330.00JP¥2,130.00n/a2
Dec ’24JP¥2,628.50
JP¥2,125.00
-19.2%
34.6%JP¥2,860.00JP¥1,390.00n/a2
Nov ’24JP¥2,724.00
JP¥2,020.00
-25.8%
29.2%JP¥2,610.00JP¥1,430.00JP¥3,800.002
Oct ’24JP¥2,607.50
JP¥2,020.00
-22.5%
29.2%JP¥2,610.00JP¥1,430.00JP¥4,013.002
Sep ’24JP¥2,638.50
JP¥2,020.00
-23.4%
29.2%JP¥2,610.00JP¥1,430.00JP¥4,294.002
Aug ’24JP¥2,723.50
JP¥2,020.00
-25.8%
29.2%JP¥2,610.00JP¥1,430.00JP¥4,588.002
May ’24JP¥2,590.00
JP¥1,945.00
-24.9%
34.2%JP¥2,610.00JP¥1,280.00JP¥4,060.002
Apr ’24JP¥2,463.00
JP¥1,945.00
-21.0%
34.2%JP¥2,610.00JP¥1,280.00JP¥3,366.002
Mar ’24JP¥2,521.00
JP¥1,945.00
-22.8%
34.2%JP¥2,610.00JP¥1,280.00JP¥3,005.002
Feb ’24JP¥2,482.00
JP¥1,955.00
-21.2%
33.5%JP¥2,610.00JP¥1,300.00JP¥2,983.002
Jan ’24JP¥2,517.00
JP¥1,955.00
-22.3%
33.5%JP¥2,610.00JP¥1,300.00JP¥2,945.002
Dec ’23JP¥2,675.00
JP¥1,955.00
-26.9%
33.5%JP¥2,610.00JP¥1,300.00JP¥2,628.502
Nov ’23JP¥2,714.00
JP¥1,955.00
-28.0%
33.5%JP¥2,610.00JP¥1,300.00JP¥2,724.002

Analyst Forecast: Target price is less than 20% higher than the current share price.

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