Stock Analysis

Kyushu Railway (TSE:9142) shareholders are still up 63% over 3 years despite pulling back 7.1% in the past week

TSE:9142
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One simple way to benefit from the stock market is to buy an index fund. But if you choose individual stocks with prowess, you can make superior returns. For example, Kyushu Railway Company (TSE:9142) shareholders have seen the share price rise 49% over three years, well in excess of the market return (22%, not including dividends). However, more recent returns haven't been as impressive as that, with the stock returning just 23% in the last year, including dividends.

In light of the stock dropping 7.1% in the past week, we want to investigate the longer term story, and see if fundamentals have been the driver of the company's positive three-year return.

View our latest analysis for Kyushu Railway

There is no denying that markets are sometimes efficient, but prices do not always reflect underlying business performance. By comparing earnings per share (EPS) and share price changes over time, we can get a feel for how investor attitudes to a company have morphed over time.

Kyushu Railway became profitable within the last three years. So we would expect a higher share price over the period.

The company's earnings per share (over time) is depicted in the image below (click to see the exact numbers).

earnings-per-share-growth
TSE:9142 Earnings Per Share Growth August 8th 2024

It is of course excellent to see how Kyushu Railway has grown profits over the years, but the future is more important for shareholders. Take a more thorough look at Kyushu Railway's financial health with this free report on its balance sheet.

What About Dividends?

When looking at investment returns, it is important to consider the difference between total shareholder return (TSR) and share price return. Whereas the share price return only reflects the change in the share price, the TSR includes the value of dividends (assuming they were reinvested) and the benefit of any discounted capital raising or spin-off. So for companies that pay a generous dividend, the TSR is often a lot higher than the share price return. In the case of Kyushu Railway, it has a TSR of 63% for the last 3 years. That exceeds its share price return that we previously mentioned. The dividends paid by the company have thusly boosted the total shareholder return.

A Different Perspective

It's good to see that Kyushu Railway has rewarded shareholders with a total shareholder return of 23% in the last twelve months. Of course, that includes the dividend. That's better than the annualised return of 7% over half a decade, implying that the company is doing better recently. Given the share price momentum remains strong, it might be worth taking a closer look at the stock, lest you miss an opportunity. It's always interesting to track share price performance over the longer term. But to understand Kyushu Railway better, we need to consider many other factors. Consider risks, for instance. Every company has them, and we've spotted 2 warning signs for Kyushu Railway you should know about.

We will like Kyushu Railway better if we see some big insider buys. While we wait, check out this free list of undervalued stocks (mostly small caps) with considerable, recent, insider buying.

Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on Japanese exchanges.

Valuation is complex, but we're here to simplify it.

Discover if Kyushu Railway might be undervalued or overvalued with our detailed analysis, featuring fair value estimates, potential risks, dividends, insider trades, and its financial condition.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.