Kyushu Railway Company Earnings Missed Analyst Estimates: Here's What Analysts Are Forecasting Now

As you might know, Kyushu Railway Company (TSE:9142) recently reported its half-yearly numbers. It looks like a pretty bad result, all things considered. Although revenues of JP¥238b were in line with analyst predictions, statutory earnings fell badly short, missing estimates by 61% to hit JP¥38.80 per share. This is an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance in its report, look at what experts are forecasting for next year, and see if there has been any change to expectations for the business. We thought readers would find it interesting to see the analysts latest (statutory) post-earnings forecasts for next year.

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Taking into account the latest results, the consensus forecast from Kyushu Railway's ten analysts is for revenues of JP¥494.6b in 2026. This reflects an okay 2.3% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Per-share earnings are expected to leap 20% to JP¥339. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of JP¥493.0b and earnings per share (EPS) of JP¥345 in 2026. So it's pretty clear that, although the analysts have updated their estimates, there's been no major change in expectations for the business following the latest results.

Check out our latest analysis for Kyushu Railway

It will come as no surprise then, to learn that the consensus price target is largely unchanged at JP¥4,426. It could also be instructive to look at the range of analyst estimates, to evaluate how different the outlier opinions are from the mean. There are some variant perceptions on Kyushu Railway, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at JP¥5,300 and the most bearish at JP¥3,300 per share. There are definitely some different views on the stock, but the range of estimates is not wide enough as to imply that the situation is unforecastable, in our view.

Taking a look at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can understand these forecasts is to see how they compare to both past performance and industry growth estimates. It's pretty clear that there is an expectation that Kyushu Railway's revenue growth will slow down substantially, with revenues to the end of 2026 expected to display 4.6% growth on an annualised basis. This is compared to a historical growth rate of 9.6% over the past five years. By way of comparison, the other companies in this industry with analyst coverage are forecast to grow their revenue at 2.1% annually. So it's pretty clear that, while Kyushu Railway's revenue growth is expected to slow, it's still expected to grow faster than the industry itself.

The Bottom Line

The most obvious conclusion is that there's been no major change in the business' prospects in recent times, with the analysts holding their earnings forecasts steady, in line with previous estimates. Fortunately, they also reconfirmed their revenue numbers, suggesting that it's tracking in line with expectations. Additionally, our data suggests that revenue is expected to grow faster than the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.

Following on from that line of thought, we think that the long-term prospects of the business are much more relevant than next year's earnings. We have forecasts for Kyushu Railway going out to 2028, and you can see them free on our platform here.

You still need to take note of risks, for example - Kyushu Railway has 2 warning signs we think you should be aware of.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.