Optimism for Tonami Holdings (TSE:9070) has grown this past week, despite five-year decline in earnings

When you buy and hold a stock for the long term, you definitely want it to provide a positive return. Furthermore, you'd generally like to see the share price rise faster than the market. Unfortunately for shareholders, while the Tonami Holdings Co., Ltd. (TSE:9070) share price is up 22% in the last five years, that's less than the market return. Looking at the last year alone, the stock is up 18%.

Since the stock has added JP¥5.9b to its market cap in the past week alone, let's see if underlying performance has been driving long-term returns.

View our latest analysis for Tonami Holdings

To paraphrase Benjamin Graham: Over the short term the market is a voting machine, but over the long term it's a weighing machine. By comparing earnings per share (EPS) and share price changes over time, we can get a feel for how investor attitudes to a company have morphed over time.

During five years of share price growth, Tonami Holdings actually saw its EPS drop 2.2% per year.

With EPS falling, but a modestly increasing share price, it seems that the market was probably too pessimistic about the stock in the past. In the long term, though, it will be hard for the share price rises to continue without improving EPS.

The image below shows how EPS has tracked over time (if you click on the image you can see greater detail).

This free interactive report on Tonami Holdings' earnings, revenue and cash flow is a great place to start, if you want to investigate the stock further.

What About Dividends?

It is important to consider the total shareholder return, as well as the share price return, for any given stock. The TSR incorporates the value of any spin-offs or discounted capital raisings, along with any dividends, based on the assumption that the dividends are reinvested. Arguably, the TSR gives a more comprehensive picture of the return generated by a stock. In the case of Tonami Holdings, it has a TSR of 39% for the last 5 years. That exceeds its share price return that we previously mentioned. And there's no prize for guessing that the dividend payments largely explain the divergence!

A Different Perspective

It's nice to see that Tonami Holdings shareholders have received a total shareholder return of 21% over the last year. And that does include the dividend. That gain is better than the annual TSR over five years, which is 7%. Therefore it seems like sentiment around the company has been positive lately. Someone with an optimistic perspective could view the recent improvement in TSR as indicating that the business itself is getting better with time. Before deciding if you like the current share price, check how Tonami Holdings scores on these 3 valuation metrics.

If you are like me, then you will not want to miss this free list of undervalued small caps that insiders are buying.

Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on Japanese exchanges.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.