Yamato Holdings Co., Ltd. Just Missed EPS By 91%: Here's What Analysts Think Will Happen Next

Yamato Holdings Co., Ltd. (TSE:9064) shareholders are probably feeling a little disappointed, since its shares fell 2.8% to JP¥2,252 in the week after its latest half-yearly results. It looks like a pretty bad result, all things considered. Although revenues of JP¥907b were in line with analyst predictions, statutory earnings fell badly short, missing estimates by 91% to hit JP¥1.63 per share. Earnings are an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance, look at what the analysts are forecasting for next year, and see if there's been a change in sentiment towards the company. We've gathered the most recent statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their earnings models, following these results.

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Following the latest results, Yamato Holdings' ten analysts are now forecasting revenues of JP¥1.88t in 2026. This would be an okay 2.8% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are forecast to plummet 39% to JP¥85.62 in the same period. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of JP¥1.88t and earnings per share (EPS) of JP¥88.65 in 2026. So it looks like there's been a small decline in overall sentiment after the recent results - there's been no major change to revenue estimates, but the analysts did make a minor downgrade to their earnings per share forecasts.

Check out our latest analysis for Yamato Holdings

It might be a surprise to learn that the consensus price target was broadly unchanged at JP¥2,396, with the analysts clearly implying that the forecast decline in earnings is not expected to have much of an impact on valuation. That's not the only conclusion we can draw from this data however, as some investors also like to consider the spread in estimates when evaluating analyst price targets. The most optimistic Yamato Holdings analyst has a price target of JP¥2,900 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at JP¥1,700. As you can see, analysts are not all in agreement on the stock's future, but the range of estimates is still reasonably narrow, which could suggest that the outcome is not totally unpredictable.

One way to get more context on these forecasts is to look at how they compare to both past performance, and how other companies in the same industry are performing. It's clear from the latest estimates that Yamato Holdings' rate of growth is expected to accelerate meaningfully, with the forecast 5.7% annualised revenue growth to the end of 2026 noticeably faster than its historical growth of 0.9% p.a. over the past five years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in a similar industry are forecast to grow their revenue at 4.0% per year. Factoring in the forecast acceleration in revenue, it's pretty clear that Yamato Holdings is expected to grow much faster than its industry.

The Bottom Line

The biggest concern is that the analysts reduced their earnings per share estimates, suggesting business headwinds could lay ahead for Yamato Holdings. Happily, there were no major changes to revenue forecasts, with the business still expected to grow faster than the wider industry. The consensus price target held steady at JP¥2,396, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.

Keeping that in mind, we still think that the longer term trajectory of the business is much more important for investors to consider. We have forecasts for Yamato Holdings going out to 2028, and you can see them free on our platform here.

That said, it's still necessary to consider the ever-present spectre of investment risk. We've identified 2 warning signs with Yamato Holdings , and understanding them should be part of your investment process.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.