Kobe Electric Railway (TSE:9046) - Share price, News & Analysis

Q: What is the Fair Price of 9046 when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

9046 (¥3245) is trading above our estimate of [[fair value]] (¥12.84)

9046 fundamental analysis
Snowflake Score
Valuation	1/6
Future Growth	0/6
Past Performance	4/6
Financial Health	1/6
Dividends	0/6

9046 Stock Overview

Kobe Electric Railway Co., Ltd. engages in the railway business in Japan.

Rewards

Earnings grew by 177.5% over the past year

Risk Analysis

Earnings have declined by 27.2% per year over past 5 years

Interest payments are not well covered by earnings

Kobe Electric Railway Competitors

Shin-Keisei Electric RailwayLtd

TSE:9014

JP¥32.1b

Keifuku Electric RailroadLtd

TSE:9049

JP¥6.3b

Sotetsu Holdings

TSE:9003

JP¥225.0b

Nishi-Nippon Railroad

TSE:9031

JP¥221.5b

Price History & Performance

Summary of all time highs, changes and price drops for Kobe Electric Railway
Historical stock prices
Current Share Price	JP¥3,245.00
52 Week High	JP¥3,640.00
52 Week Low	JP¥3,060.00
Beta	0.080
1 Month Change	-2.26%
3 Month Change	-0.92%
1 Year Change	-6.35%
3 Year Change	-18.67%
5 Year Change	-18.67%
Change since IPO	-53.31%

Shareholder Returns

	9046	JP Transportation	JP Market
7D	1.9%	1.8%	1.9%
1Y	-6.3%	-8.6%	-6.2%

Return vs Industry: 9046 exceeded the JP Transportation industry which returned -8.6% over the past year.

Return vs Market: 9046 matched the JP Market which returned -6.2% over the past year.

Price Volatility

Is 9046's price volatile compared to industry and market?
9046 volatility
9046 Average Weekly Movement	2.3%
Transportation Industry Average Movement	3.2%
Market Average Movement	4.2%
10% most volatile stocks in JP Market	8.5%
10% least volatile stocks in JP Market	2.3%

Stable Share Price: 9046 is less volatile than 75% of JP stocks over the past 3 months, typically moving +/- 2% a week.

Volatility Over Time: 9046's weekly volatility (2%) has been stable over the past year.

About the Company

Founded	Employees	CEO	Website
1926	864	Nobuhiko Terada	https://www.shintetsu.co.jp

Kobe Electric Railway Co., Ltd. engages in the railway business in Japan. The company operates a rail network of 69.6 kilometers. It is also involved real estate, childcare, health, parking lot, and nursing care businesses.

Kobe Electric Railway Fundamentals Summary

How do Kobe Electric Railway's earnings and revenue compare to its market cap?
9046 fundamental statistics
Market Cap	JP¥26.08b
Earnings (TTM)	JP¥519.00m
Revenue (TTM)	JP¥20.52b

50.3x

P/E Ratio

1.3x

P/S Ratio

Is 9046 overvalued?

See Fair Value and valuation analysis

Earnings & Revenue

Key profitability statistics from the latest earnings report
9046 income statement (TTM)
Revenue	JP¥20.52b
Cost of Revenue	JP¥16.88b
Gross Profit	JP¥3.63b
Other Expenses	JP¥3.11b
Earnings	JP¥519.00m

Last Reported Earnings

Mar 31, 2022

Next Earnings Date

Jul 29, 2022

Earnings per share (EPS)	64.58
Gross Margin	17.71%
Net Profit Margin	2.53%
Debt/Equity Ratio	285.3%

How did 9046 perform over the long term?

See historical performance and comparison

We’ve recently updated our valuation analysis.

Valuation

Is 9046 undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

1/6

Valuation Score 1/6

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers
Price-To-Earnings vs Industry
Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio
Below Fair Value
Significantly Below Fair Value
PEG Ratio

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for 9046?

Other financial metrics that can be useful for relative valuation.

The above table shows the n/a ratio for 9046. This is calculated by dividing 9046's market cap by their current preferred multiple.
What is 9046's n/a Ratio?
n/a Ratio	0x
n/a	n/a
Market Cap	JP¥26.08b

9046 key valuation metrics and ratios. From Price to Earnings, Price to Sales and Price to Book to Price to Earnings Growth Ratio, Enterprise Value and EBITDA.
Key Statistics
Enterprise Value/Revenue	4.1x
Enterprise Value/EBITDA	23.9x
PEG Ratio	n/a

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does 9046's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

9046 PE Ratio vs Peers

The above table shows the PE ratio for 9046 vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
Company	PE	Estimated Growth	Market Cap
Peer Average	53.7x
9014 Shin-Keisei Electric RailwayLtd	61.8x	n/a	JP¥32.1b
9049 Keifuku Electric RailroadLtd	9.3x	n/a	JP¥6.3b
9003 Sotetsu Holdings	121.3x	n/a	JP¥225.0b
9031 Nishi-Nippon Railroad	22.4x	9.3%	JP¥221.5b
9046 Kobe Electric Railway	50.3x	n/a	JP¥26.1b

Forward PE

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: 9046 is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (50.3x) compared to the peer average (53.7x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does 9046's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the JP Transportation Industry?

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: 9046 is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (50.3x) compared to the JP Transportation industry average (11.5x)

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is 9046's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

9046 PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio	50.3x
Fair PE Ratio	n/a

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: Insufficient data to calculate 9046's Price-To-Earnings Fair Ratio for valuation analysis.

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of 9046 when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: 9046 (¥3245) is trading above our estimate of fair value (¥12.84)

Significantly Below Fair Value: 9046 is trading above our estimate of fair value.

Price to Earnings Growth Ratio

PEG Ratio: Insufficient data to calculate 9046's PEG Ratio to determine if it is good value.

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Future Growth

How is Kobe Electric Railway forecast to perform in the next 1 to 3 years based on estimates from 0 analysts?

Future Growth Score

0/6

Future Growth Score 0/6

Earnings vs Savings Rate
Earnings vs Market
High Growth Earnings
Revenue vs Market
High Growth Revenue
Future ROE

26.3%

Forecasted Transportation industry annual growth in earnings

In this section we usually present revenue and earnings growth projections based on the consensus estimates of professional analysts to help investors understand the company’s ability to generate profit. But as Kobe Electric Railway has not provided enough past data and has no analyst forecast, its future earnings cannot be reliably calculated by extrapolating past data or using analyst predictions.

This is quite a rare situation as 97% of companies covered by SimplyWall St do have past financial data.

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Check out Kobe Electric Railway's track record over time to understand how much the company has returned to shareholders and its earnings growth rate in the past.

Past Performance

How has Kobe Electric Railway performed over the past 5 years?

Past Performance Score

4/6

Past Performance Score 4/6

Quality Earnings
Growing Profit Margin
Earnings Trend
Accelerating Growth
Earnings vs Industry
High ROE

-27.2%

Historical annual earnings growth

Earnings and Revenue History

Quality Earnings: 9046 has high quality earnings.

Growing Profit Margin: 9046's current net profit margins (2.5%) are higher than last year (0.9%).

Past Earnings Growth Analysis

Earnings Trend: 9046's earnings have declined by 27.2% per year over the past 5 years.

Accelerating Growth: 9046's earnings growth over the past year (177.5%) exceeds its 5-year average (-27.2% per year).

Earnings vs Industry: 9046 earnings growth over the past year (177.5%) exceeded the Transportation industry 9.5%.

Return on Equity

High ROE: 9046's Return on Equity (2.5%) is considered low.

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Financial Health

How is Kobe Electric Railway's financial position?

Financial Health Score

1/6

Financial Health Score 1/6

Short Term Liabilities
Long Term Liabilities
Debt Level
Reducing Debt
Debt Coverage
Interest Coverage

Financial Position Analysis

Short Term Liabilities: 9046's short term assets (¥6.0B) do not cover its short term liabilities (¥35.7B).

Long Term Liabilities: 9046's short term assets (¥6.0B) do not cover its long term liabilities (¥36.0B).

Debt to Equity History and Analysis

Debt Level: 9046's net debt to equity ratio (279.2%) is considered high.

Reducing Debt: 9046's debt to equity ratio has reduced from 402.5% to 285.3% over the past 5 years.

Debt Coverage: 9046's debt is not well covered by operating cash flow (4.8%).

Interest Coverage: 9046's interest payments on its debt are not well covered by EBIT (1.9x coverage).

Balance Sheet

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Dividend

What is Kobe Electric Railway current dividend yield, its reliability and sustainability?

Dividend Score

0/6

Dividend Score 0/6

Notable Dividend
High Dividend
Stable Dividend
Growing Dividend
Earnings Coverage
Future Dividend Coverage

Dividend Yield vs Market

Notable Dividend: Unable to evaluate 9046's dividend yield against the bottom 25% of dividend payers, as the company has not reported any recent payouts.

High Dividend: Unable to evaluate 9046's dividend yield against the top 25% of dividend payers, as the company has not reported any recent payouts.

Stability and Growth of Payments

Stable Dividend: Insufficient data to determine if 9046's dividends per share have been stable in the past.

Growing Dividend: Insufficient data to determine if 9046's dividend payments have been increasing.

Earnings Payout to Shareholders

Earnings Coverage: Insufficient data to calculate payout ratio to determine if its dividend payments are covered by earnings.

Cash Payout to Shareholders

Cash Flow Coverage: Unable to calculate sustainability of dividends as 9046 has not reported any payouts.

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Management

How experienced are the management team and are they aligned to shareholders interests?

4.0yrs

Average board tenure

CEO

Nobuhiko Terada (65 yo)

no data

Tenure

Mr. Nobuhiko Terada serves as President at Kobe Electric Railway Co., Ltd. Mr. Terada served as Manager of Railroad Marketing Department of Transportation Division at Hankyu Corporation since June 2003. He...

Board Members

Experienced Board: 9046's board of directors are considered experienced (4 years average tenure).

Ownership

Who are the major shareholders and have insiders been buying or selling?

Insider Trading Volume

Insider Buying: Insufficient data to determine if insiders have bought more shares than they have sold in the past 3 months.

Ownership Breakdown

Dilution of Shares: Shareholders have not been meaningfully diluted in the past year.

Data	Last Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis	2022/06/27 00:00
End of Day Share Price	2022/06/27 00:00
Earnings	2022/03/31
Annual Earnings	2022/03/31