Central Japan Railway Company

TSE:9022 Stock Report

Market Cap: JP¥2.8t

Central Japan Railway Valuation

Is 9022 undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

4/6

Valuation Score 4/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Peers

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Industry

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of 9022 when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Discounted Cash Flow
Simply Wall St
JP¥1.94k
Fair Value
44.2% overvalued intrinsic discount
13
Number of Analysts

Below Fair Value: 9022 (¥2798) is trading above our estimate of fair value (¥1939.7)

Significantly Below Fair Value: 9022 is trading above our estimate of fair value.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for 9022?

Key metric: As 9022 is profitable we use its Price-To-Earnings Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Earnings ratio for 9022. This is calculated by dividing 9022's market cap by their current earnings.
What is 9022's PE Ratio?
PE Ratio6.2x
EarningsJP¥442.50b
Market CapJP¥2.77t

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does 9022's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for 9022 vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PEEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average15.1x
9020 East Japan Railway
13.8x6.6%JP¥3.1t
9021 West Japan Railway
12.9x3.6%JP¥1.3t
9023 Tokyo Metro
21.8x8.0%JP¥1.1t
9005 Tokyu
11.9x-1.6%JP¥988.6b
9022 Central Japan Railway
6.2x0.5%JP¥2.8t

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: 9022 is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (6.2x) compared to the peer average (15.1x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does 9022's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the JP Transportation Industry?

0 CompaniesPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No more companies available in this PE range
9022 6.2xIndustry Avg. 10.5xNo. of Companies7PE0612182430+
0 CompaniesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: 9022 is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (6.2x) compared to the JP Transportation industry average (10.5x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is 9022's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

9022 PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio6.2x
Fair PE Ratio17.2x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: 9022 is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (6.2x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (17.2x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst 9022 forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
CurrentJP¥2,798.00
JP¥3,636.15
+30.0%
13.5%JP¥4,400.00JP¥2,800.00n/a13
Feb ’26JP¥2,889.00
JP¥3,686.92
+27.6%
11.3%JP¥4,400.00JP¥3,120.00n/a13
Jan ’26JP¥2,965.00
JP¥3,660.83
+23.5%
11.6%JP¥4,400.00JP¥3,120.00n/a12
Dec ’25JP¥3,087.00
JP¥3,688.18
+19.5%
11.8%JP¥4,400.00JP¥3,120.00n/a11
Nov ’25JP¥3,174.00
JP¥3,765.45
+18.6%
11.2%JP¥4,400.00JP¥3,120.00n/a11
Oct ’25JP¥3,279.00
JP¥3,929.09
+19.8%
11.2%JP¥4,700.00JP¥3,220.00n/a11
Sep ’25JP¥3,380.00
JP¥3,974.55
+17.6%
12.3%JP¥4,700.00JP¥3,220.00n/a11
Aug ’25JP¥3,412.00
JP¥3,974.55
+16.5%
12.3%JP¥4,700.00JP¥3,220.00n/a11
Jul ’25JP¥3,430.00
JP¥3,981.82
+16.1%
12.0%JP¥4,700.00JP¥3,200.00n/a11
Jun ’25JP¥3,511.00
JP¥4,027.27
+14.7%
11.9%JP¥4,700.00JP¥3,200.00n/a11
May ’25JP¥3,594.00
JP¥4,054.55
+12.8%
11.3%JP¥4,700.00JP¥3,300.00n/a11
Apr ’25JP¥3,685.00
JP¥4,080.00
+10.7%
11.6%JP¥4,700.00JP¥3,300.00n/a10
Mar ’25JP¥3,767.00
JP¥3,959.11
+5.1%
9.8%JP¥4,500.00JP¥3,300.00n/a9
Feb ’25JP¥3,655.00
JP¥3,907.20
+6.9%
9.2%JP¥4,500.00JP¥3,300.00JP¥2,889.0010
Jan ’25JP¥3,584.00
JP¥3,797.45
+6.0%
8.7%JP¥4,232.00JP¥3,200.00JP¥2,965.0011
Dec ’24JP¥3,526.00
JP¥3,790.18
+7.5%
8.5%JP¥4,232.00JP¥3,200.00JP¥3,087.0011
Nov ’24JP¥3,472.00
JP¥3,767.67
+8.5%
10.9%JP¥4,340.00JP¥3,000.00JP¥3,174.0012
Oct ’24JP¥3,635.00
JP¥3,719.33
+2.3%
12.3%JP¥4,340.00JP¥2,720.00JP¥3,279.0012
Sep ’24JP¥3,744.00
JP¥3,720.00
-0.6%
12.0%JP¥4,340.00JP¥2,720.00JP¥3,380.0010
Aug ’24JP¥3,657.00
JP¥3,648.00
-0.2%
11.2%JP¥4,160.00JP¥2,720.00JP¥3,412.0010
Jul ’24JP¥3,612.00
JP¥3,603.64
-0.2%
11.1%JP¥4,020.00JP¥2,600.00JP¥3,430.0011
Jun ’24JP¥3,393.00
JP¥3,526.00
+3.9%
11.2%JP¥4,020.00JP¥2,600.00JP¥3,511.0010
May ’24JP¥3,417.00
JP¥3,516.00
+2.9%
10.9%JP¥3,920.00JP¥2,600.00JP¥3,594.0010
Apr ’24JP¥3,162.00
JP¥3,490.00
+10.4%
10.8%JP¥3,920.00JP¥2,580.00JP¥3,685.0010
Mar ’24JP¥3,030.00
JP¥3,487.27
+15.1%
10.4%JP¥3,920.00JP¥2,580.00JP¥3,767.0011
Feb ’24JP¥3,104.00
JP¥3,523.64
+13.5%
10.9%JP¥4,000.00JP¥2,580.00JP¥3,655.0011
Analyst Price Target
Consensus Narrative from 13 Analysts
JP¥3.64k
Fair Value
23.1% undervalued intrinsic discount
13
Number of Analysts

Analyst Forecast: Target price is more than 20% higher than the current share price and analysts are within a statistically confident range of agreement.

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Company Analysis and Financial Data Status

DataLast Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis2025/02/17 07:55
End of Day Share Price 2025/02/17 00:00
Earnings2024/12/31
Annual Earnings2024/03/31

Data Sources

The data used in our company analysis is from S&P Global Market Intelligence LLC. The following data is used in our analysis model to generate this report. Data is normalised which can introduce a delay from the source being available.

PackageDataTimeframeExample US Source *
Company Financials10 years
  • Income statement
  • Cash flow statement
  • Balance sheet
Analyst Consensus Estimates+3 years
  • Forecast financials
  • Analyst price targets
Market Prices30 years
  • Stock prices
  • Dividends, Splits and Actions
Ownership10 years
  • Top shareholders
  • Insider trading
Management10 years
  • Leadership team
  • Board of directors
Key Developments10 years
  • Company announcements

* Example for US securities, for non-US equivalent regulatory forms and sources are used.

Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more.

Analysis Model and Snowflake

Details of the analysis model used to generate this report is available on our Github page, we also have guides on how to use our reports and tutorials on Youtube.

Learn about the world class team who designed and built the Simply Wall St analysis model.

Industry and Sector Metrics

Our industry and section metrics are calculated every 6 hours by Simply Wall St, details of our process are available on Github.

Analyst Sources

Central Japan Railway Company is covered by 35 analysts. 14 of those analysts submitted the estimates of revenue or earnings used as inputs to our report. Analysts submissions are updated throughout the day.

AnalystInstitution
Takayuki HayanoBarclays
Yasuharu SugimuraBNP Paribas Securities (Asia)
Nathan GeeBofA Global Research