Central Japan Railway Company

TSE:9022 Stock Report

Market Cap: JP¥3.6t

Central Japan Railway Valuation

Is 9022 undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

4/6

Valuation Score 4/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Peers

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Industry

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of 9022 when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: 9022 (¥3619) is trading below our estimate of fair value (¥3668.13)

Significantly Below Fair Value: 9022 is trading below fair value, but not by a significant amount.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for 9022?

Other financial metrics that can be useful for relative valuation.

9022 key valuation metrics and ratios. From Price to Earnings, Price to Sales and Price to Book to Price to Earnings Growth Ratio, Enterprise Value and EBITDA.
Key Statistics
Enterprise Value/Revenue4.1x
Enterprise Value/EBITDA8.5x
PEG Ratio4.2x

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does 9022's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for 9022 vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PEEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average15.2x
9020 East Japan Railway
17.4x3.9%JP¥3.4t
9021 West Japan Railway
15.8x3.8%JP¥1.6t
9042 Hankyu Hanshin Holdings
16.8x8.4%JP¥987.1b
9009 Keisei Electric Railway
10.9x-27.2%JP¥958.0b
9022 Central Japan Railway
9.3x2.2%JP¥3.6t

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: 9022 is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (9.3x) compared to the peer average (15.2x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does 9022's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the JP Transportation Industry?

0 CompaniesPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Industry Avg.n/a1.6%
 n/an/an/a
No. of CompaniesPE048121620

Fetching data

0 CompaniesPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Industry Avg.n/a1.6%
 n/an/an/a
No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: 9022 is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (9.3x) compared to the JP Transportation industry average (12.6x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is 9022's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

9022 PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio9.3x
Fair PE Ratio19.3x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: 9022 is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (9.3x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (19.3x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst 9022 forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
CurrentJP¥3,619.00
JP¥4,054.55
+12.0%
11.3%JP¥4,700.00JP¥3,300.00n/a11
Apr ’25JP¥3,685.00
JP¥4,080.00
+10.7%
11.6%JP¥4,700.00JP¥3,300.00n/a10
Mar ’25JP¥3,767.00
JP¥3,959.11
+5.1%
9.8%JP¥4,500.00JP¥3,300.00n/a9
Feb ’25JP¥3,655.00
JP¥3,907.20
+6.9%
9.2%JP¥4,500.00JP¥3,300.00n/a10
Jan ’25JP¥3,584.00
JP¥3,797.45
+6.0%
8.7%JP¥4,232.00JP¥3,200.00n/a11
Dec ’24JP¥3,526.00
JP¥3,790.18
+7.5%
8.5%JP¥4,232.00JP¥3,200.00n/a11
Nov ’24JP¥3,472.00
JP¥3,767.67
+8.5%
10.9%JP¥4,340.00JP¥3,000.00n/a12
Oct ’24JP¥3,635.00
JP¥3,719.33
+2.3%
12.3%JP¥4,340.00JP¥2,720.00n/a12
Sep ’24JP¥3,744.00
JP¥3,720.00
-0.6%
12.0%JP¥4,340.00JP¥2,720.00n/a10
Aug ’24JP¥3,657.00
JP¥3,648.00
-0.2%
11.2%JP¥4,160.00JP¥2,720.00n/a10
Jul ’24JP¥3,612.00
JP¥3,603.64
-0.2%
11.1%JP¥4,020.00JP¥2,600.00n/a11
Jun ’24JP¥3,393.00
JP¥3,526.00
+3.9%
11.2%JP¥4,020.00JP¥2,600.00n/a10
May ’24JP¥3,417.00
JP¥3,516.00
+2.9%
10.9%JP¥3,920.00JP¥2,600.00JP¥3,594.0010
Apr ’24JP¥3,162.00
JP¥3,490.00
+10.4%
10.8%JP¥3,920.00JP¥2,580.00JP¥3,685.0010
Mar ’24JP¥3,030.00
JP¥3,487.27
+15.1%
10.4%JP¥3,920.00JP¥2,580.00JP¥3,767.0011
Feb ’24JP¥3,104.00
JP¥3,523.64
+13.5%
10.9%JP¥4,000.00JP¥2,580.00JP¥3,655.0011
Jan ’24JP¥3,241.00
JP¥3,468.33
+7.0%
10.7%JP¥4,000.00JP¥2,600.00JP¥3,584.0012
Dec ’23JP¥3,282.00
JP¥3,493.33
+6.4%
11.0%JP¥4,000.00JP¥2,600.00JP¥3,526.0012
Nov ’23JP¥3,376.00
JP¥3,485.00
+3.2%
10.7%JP¥4,000.00JP¥2,600.00JP¥3,472.0012
Oct ’23JP¥3,387.00
JP¥3,456.67
+2.1%
11.3%JP¥4,000.00JP¥2,660.00JP¥3,635.0012
Sep ’23JP¥3,268.00
JP¥3,456.67
+5.8%
11.3%JP¥4,000.00JP¥2,660.00JP¥3,744.0012
Aug ’23JP¥3,186.00
JP¥3,446.67
+8.2%
11.4%JP¥3,960.00JP¥2,660.00JP¥3,657.0012
Jul ’23JP¥3,080.00
JP¥3,458.33
+12.3%
11.1%JP¥3,960.00JP¥2,660.00JP¥3,612.0012
Jun ’23JP¥3,248.00
JP¥3,418.00
+5.2%
11.8%JP¥3,960.00JP¥2,660.00JP¥3,393.0010
May ’23JP¥3,282.00
JP¥3,440.00
+4.8%
11.7%JP¥4,020.00JP¥2,660.00JP¥3,417.0010

Analyst Forecast: Target price is less than 20% higher than the current share price.

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