The board of Keikyu Corporation (TSE:9006) has announced that it will pay a dividend of ¥7.00 per share on the 1st of July. Based on this payment, the dividend yield for the company will be 1.1%, which is fairly typical for the industry.
See our latest analysis for Keikyu
Keikyu's Earnings Easily Cover The Distributions
Solid dividend yields are great, but they only really help us if the payment is sustainable. Keikyu is quite easily earning enough to cover the dividend, however it is being let down by weak cash flows. In general, we consider cash flow to be more important than earnings, so we would be cautious about relying on the sustainability of this dividend.
Looking forward, earnings per share is forecast to fall by 3.8% over the next year. If the dividend continues along the path it has been on recently, we estimate the payout ratio could be 25%, which is comfortable for the company to continue in the future.
Dividend Volatility
While the company has been paying a dividend for a long time, it has cut the dividend at least once in the last 10 years. The dividend has gone from an annual total of ¥12.00 in 2014 to the most recent total annual payment of ¥14.00. This implies that the company grew its distributions at a yearly rate of about 1.6% over that duration. We're glad to see the dividend has risen, but with a limited rate of growth and fluctuations in the payments the total shareholder return may be limited.
The Dividend's Growth Prospects Are Limited
With a relatively unstable dividend, it's even more important to evaluate if earnings per share is growing, which could point to a growing dividend in the future. Keikyu has seen earnings per share falling at 3.1% per year over the last five years. A modest decline in earnings isn't great, and it makes it quite unlikely that the dividend will grow in the future unless that trend can be reversed.
The Dividend Could Prove To Be Unreliable
Overall, this is probably not a great income stock, even though the dividend is being raised at the moment. With cash flows lacking, it is difficult to see how the company can sustain a dividend payment. We would be a touch cautious of relying on this stock primarily for the dividend income.
Market movements attest to how highly valued a consistent dividend policy is compared to one which is more unpredictable. Meanwhile, despite the importance of dividend payments, they are not the only factors our readers should know when assessing a company. For instance, we've picked out 2 warning signs for Keikyu that investors should take into consideration. Looking for more high-yielding dividend ideas? Try our collection of strong dividend payers.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
About TSE:9006
Keikyu
Engages in the transportation, real estate, leisure and service, distribution, and other businesses in Japan.
Proven track record and fair value.