Stock Analysis

Here's Why Takase (TYO:9087) Has A Meaningful Debt Burden

TSE:9087
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Warren Buffett famously said, 'Volatility is far from synonymous with risk.' So it seems the smart money knows that debt - which is usually involved in bankruptcies - is a very important factor, when you assess how risky a company is. We note that Takase Corporation (TYO:9087) does have debt on its balance sheet. But the real question is whether this debt is making the company risky.

Why Does Debt Bring Risk?

Debt assists a business until the business has trouble paying it off, either with new capital or with free cash flow. Ultimately, if the company can't fulfill its legal obligations to repay debt, shareholders could walk away with nothing. However, a more common (but still painful) scenario is that it has to raise new equity capital at a low price, thus permanently diluting shareholders. Of course, plenty of companies use debt to fund growth, without any negative consequences. The first thing to do when considering how much debt a business uses is to look at its cash and debt together.

View our latest analysis for Takase

How Much Debt Does Takase Carry?

As you can see below, Takase had JP¥2.69b of debt at September 2020, down from JP¥3.03b a year prior. However, because it has a cash reserve of JP¥2.14b, its net debt is less, at about JP¥551.0m.

debt-equity-history-analysis
JASDAQ:9087 Debt to Equity History December 11th 2020

A Look At Takase's Liabilities

We can see from the most recent balance sheet that Takase had liabilities of JP¥1.51b falling due within a year, and liabilities of JP¥2.46b due beyond that. Offsetting these obligations, it had cash of JP¥2.14b as well as receivables valued at JP¥900.0m due within 12 months. So its liabilities total JP¥924.0m more than the combination of its cash and short-term receivables.

While this might seem like a lot, it is not so bad since Takase has a market capitalization of JP¥1.88b, and so it could probably strengthen its balance sheet by raising capital if it needed to. But it's clear that we should definitely closely examine whether it can manage its debt without dilution.

In order to size up a company's debt relative to its earnings, we calculate its net debt divided by its earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) and its earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) divided by its interest expense (its interest cover). The advantage of this approach is that we take into account both the absolute quantum of debt (with net debt to EBITDA) and the actual interest expenses associated with that debt (with its interest cover ratio).

Looking at its net debt to EBITDA of 1.2 and interest cover of 5.1 times, it seems to us that Takase is probably using debt in a pretty reasonable way. So we'd recommend keeping a close eye on the impact financing costs are having on the business. Importantly, Takase's EBIT fell a jaw-dropping 41% in the last twelve months. If that earnings trend continues then paying off its debt will be about as easy as herding cats on to a roller coaster. When analysing debt levels, the balance sheet is the obvious place to start. But you can't view debt in total isolation; since Takase will need earnings to service that debt. So if you're keen to discover more about its earnings, it might be worth checking out this graph of its long term earnings trend.

Finally, a business needs free cash flow to pay off debt; accounting profits just don't cut it. So it's worth checking how much of that EBIT is backed by free cash flow. In the last three years, Takase's free cash flow amounted to 46% of its EBIT, less than we'd expect. That weak cash conversion makes it more difficult to handle indebtedness.

Our View

Mulling over Takase's attempt at (not) growing its EBIT, we're certainly not enthusiastic. But at least it's pretty decent at managing its debt, based on its EBITDA,; that's encouraging. Looking at the balance sheet and taking into account all these factors, we do believe that debt is making Takase stock a bit risky. That's not necessarily a bad thing, but we'd generally feel more comfortable with less leverage. There's no doubt that we learn most about debt from the balance sheet. However, not all investment risk resides within the balance sheet - far from it. To that end, you should learn about the 5 warning signs we've spotted with Takase (including 1 which is is potentially serious) .

At the end of the day, it's often better to focus on companies that are free from net debt. You can access our special list of such companies (all with a track record of profit growth). It's free.

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