Nagano Keiki Co., Ltd. Just Missed Revenue By 16%: Here's What Analysts Think Will Happen Next

Shareholders might have noticed that Nagano Keiki Co., Ltd. (TSE:7715) filed its third-quarter result this time last week. The early response was not positive, with shares down 2.9% to JP¥2,101 in the past week. Revenues were JP¥15b, 16% below analyst expectations, although losses didn't appear to worsen significantly, with a per-share statutory loss of JP¥284 being in line with what the analyst forecast. The analyst typically update their forecasts at each earnings report, and we can judge from their estimates whether their view of the company has changed or if there are any new concerns to be aware of. We've gathered the most recent statutory forecasts to see whether the analyst has changed their earnings models, following these results.

See our latest analysis for Nagano Keiki

Taking into account the latest results, the consensus forecast from Nagano Keiki's single analyst is for revenues of JP¥73.4b in 2026. This reflects a notable 11% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Per-share earnings are expected to rise 2.6% to JP¥309. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analyst had been anticipated revenues of JP¥74.4b and earnings per share (EPS) of JP¥314 in 2026. The consensus analyst doesn't seem to have seen anything in these results that would have changed their view on the business, given there's been no major change to their estimates.

With no major changes to earnings forecasts, the consensus price target fell 7.4% to JP¥5,000, suggesting that the analyst might have previously been hoping for an earnings upgrade.

These estimates are interesting, but it can be useful to paint some more broad strokes when seeing how forecasts compare, both to the Nagano Keiki's past performance and to peers in the same industry. The period to the end of 2026 brings more of the same, according to the analyst, with revenue forecast to display 8.7% growth on an annualised basis. That is in line with its 9.3% annual growth over the past five years. Juxtapose this against our data, which suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in the industry are forecast to see their revenues grow 7.2% per year. So although Nagano Keiki is expected to maintain its revenue growth rate, it's only growing at about the rate of the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that there's been no major change in sentiment, with the analyst reconfirming that the business is performing in line with their previous earnings per share estimates. Happily, there were no real changes to revenue forecasts, with the business still expected to grow in line with the overall industry. Furthermore, the analyst also cut their price targets, suggesting that the latest news has led to greater pessimism about the intrinsic value of the business.

Following on from that line of thought, we think that the long-term prospects of the business are much more relevant than next year's earnings. We have analyst estimates for Nagano Keiki going out as far as 2027, and you can see them free on our platform here.

You should always think about risks though. Case in point, we've spotted 1 warning sign for Nagano Keiki you should be aware of.

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.