Hamamatsu Photonics K.K. Earnings Missed Analyst Estimates: Here's What Analysts Are Forecasting Now

The analysts might have been a bit too bullish on Hamamatsu Photonics K.K. (TSE:6965), given that the company fell short of expectations when it released its third-quarter results last week. Results showed a clear earnings miss, with JP¥47b revenue coming in 8.3% lower than what the analystsexpected. Statutory earnings per share (EPS) of JP¥23.50 missed the mark badly, arriving some 60% below what was expected. Following the result, the analysts have updated their earnings model, and it would be good to know whether they think there's been a strong change in the company's prospects, or if it's business as usual. So we gathered the latest post-earnings forecasts to see what estimates suggest is in store for next year.

See our latest analysis for Hamamatsu Photonics K.K

After the latest results, the eight analysts covering Hamamatsu Photonics K.K are now predicting revenues of JP¥234.7b in 2025. If met, this would reflect a solid 13% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are predicted to rise 5.2% to JP¥209. Before this earnings report, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of JP¥235.1b and earnings per share (EPS) of JP¥216 in 2025. The analysts seem to have become a little more negative on the business after the latest results, given the small dip in their earnings per share numbers for next year.

It might be a surprise to learn that the consensus price target fell 5.8% to JP¥5,917, with the analysts clearly linking lower forecast earnings to the performance of the stock price. Fixating on a single price target can be unwise though, since the consensus target is effectively the average of analyst price targets. As a result, some investors like to look at the range of estimates to see if there are any diverging opinions on the company's valuation. There are some variant perceptions on Hamamatsu Photonics K.K, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at JP¥7,200 and the most bearish at JP¥4,100 per share. This shows there is still a bit of diversity in estimates, but analysts don't appear to be totally split on the stock as though it might be a success or failure situation.

Another way we can view these estimates is in the context of the bigger picture, such as how the forecasts stack up against past performance, and whether forecasts are more or less bullish relative to other companies in the industry. The period to the end of 2025 brings more of the same, according to the analysts, with revenue forecast to display 10% growth on an annualised basis. That is in line with its 11% annual growth over the past five years. Compare this with the broader industry, which analyst estimates (in aggregate) suggest will see revenues grow 7.1% annually. So although Hamamatsu Photonics K.K is expected to maintain its revenue growth rate, it's definitely expected to grow faster than the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that the analysts downgraded their earnings per share estimates, showing that there has been a clear decline in sentiment following these results. Fortunately, they also reconfirmed their revenue numbers, suggesting that it's tracking in line with expectations. Additionally, our data suggests that revenue is expected to grow faster than the wider industry. Furthermore, the analysts also cut their price targets, suggesting that the latest news has led to greater pessimism about the intrinsic value of the business.

With that in mind, we wouldn't be too quick to come to a conclusion on Hamamatsu Photonics K.K. Long-term earnings power is much more important than next year's profits. We have forecasts for Hamamatsu Photonics K.K going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here.

Even so, be aware that Hamamatsu Photonics K.K is showing 1 warning sign in our investment analysis , you should know about...

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.