JEOL Ltd. Just Missed Earnings - But Analysts Have Updated Their Models

JEOL Ltd. (TSE:6951) missed earnings with its latest half-year results, disappointing overly-optimistic forecasters. It wasn't a great result overall - while revenue fell marginally short of analyst estimates at JP¥82b, statutory earnings missed forecasts by 17%, coming in at just JP¥193 per share. The analysts typically update their forecasts at each earnings report, and we can judge from their estimates whether their view of the company has changed or if there are any new concerns to be aware of. So we gathered the latest post-earnings forecasts to see what estimates suggest is in store for next year.

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After the latest results, the consensus from JEOL's six analysts is for revenues of JP¥183.2b in 2026, which would reflect a perceptible 4.3% decline in revenue compared to the last year of performance. Statutory earnings per share are predicted to accumulate 9.7% to JP¥378. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been anticipated revenues of JP¥184.2b and earnings per share (EPS) of JP¥377 in 2026. So it's pretty clear that, although the analysts have updated their estimates, there's been no major change in expectations for the business following the latest results.

Check out our latest analysis for JEOL

There were no changes to revenue or earnings estimates or the price target of JP¥6,460, suggesting that the company has met expectations in its recent result. The consensus price target is just an average of individual analyst targets, so - it could be handy to see how wide the range of underlying estimates is. There are some variant perceptions on JEOL, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at JP¥8,200 and the most bearish at JP¥4,400 per share. As you can see, analysts are not all in agreement on the stock's future, but the range of estimates is still reasonably narrow, which could suggest that the outcome is not totally unpredictable.

Looking at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can make sense of these forecasts is to see how they measure up against both past performance and industry growth estimates. These estimates imply that revenue is expected to slow, with a forecast annualised decline of 8.5% by the end of 2026. This indicates a significant reduction from annual growth of 13% over the last five years. Compare this with our data, which suggests that other companies in the same industry are, in aggregate, expected to see their revenue grow 6.4% per year. So although its revenues are forecast to shrink, this cloud does not come with a silver lining - JEOL is expected to lag the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The most obvious conclusion is that there's been no major change in the business' prospects in recent times, with the analysts holding their earnings forecasts steady, in line with previous estimates. On the plus side, there were no major changes to revenue estimates; although forecasts imply they will perform worse than the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.

With that said, the long-term trajectory of the company's earnings is a lot more important than next year. We have estimates - from multiple JEOL analysts - going out to 2028, and you can see them free on our platform here.

And what about risks? Every company has them, and we've spotted 1 warning sign for JEOL you should know about.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.