Earnings Beat: Keyence Corporation Just Beat Analyst Forecasts, And Analysts Have Been Updating Their Models

Last week, you might have seen that Keyence Corporation (TSE:6861) released its quarterly result to the market. The early response was not positive, with shares down 6.8% to JP¥63,600 in the past week. Revenues were JP¥260b, approximately in line with expectations, although statutory earnings per share (EPS) performed substantially better. EPS of JP¥421 were also better than expected, beating analyst predictions by 11%. The analysts typically update their forecasts at each earnings report, and we can judge from their estimates whether their view of the company has changed or if there are any new concerns to be aware of. So we gathered the latest post-earnings forecasts to see what estimates suggest is in store for next year.

Check out our latest analysis for Keyence

After the latest results, the 17 analysts covering Keyence are now predicting revenues of JP¥1.19t in 2026. If met, this would reflect a solid 15% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Per-share earnings are expected to step up 15% to JP¥1,879. Before this earnings report, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of JP¥1.19t and earnings per share (EPS) of JP¥1,879 in 2026. So it's pretty clear that, although the analysts have updated their estimates, there's been no major change in expectations for the business following the latest results.

There were no changes to revenue or earnings estimates or the price target of JP¥80,125, suggesting that the company has met expectations in its recent result. The consensus price target is just an average of individual analyst targets, so - it could be handy to see how wide the range of underlying estimates is. Currently, the most bullish analyst values Keyence at JP¥100,000 per share, while the most bearish prices it at JP¥63,700. Analysts definitely have varying views on the business, but the spread of estimates is not wide enough in our view to suggest that extreme outcomes could await Keyence shareholders.

Looking at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can make sense of these forecasts is to see how they measure up against both past performance and industry growth estimates. It's pretty clear that there is an expectation that Keyence's revenue growth will slow down substantially, with revenues to the end of 2026 expected to display 12% growth on an annualised basis. This is compared to a historical growth rate of 16% over the past five years. Juxtapose this against the other companies in the industry with analyst coverage, which are forecast to grow their revenues (in aggregate) 7.3% per year. So it's pretty clear that, while Keyence's revenue growth is expected to slow, it's still expected to grow faster than the industry itself.

The Bottom Line

The most obvious conclusion is that there's been no major change in the business' prospects in recent times, with the analysts holding their earnings forecasts steady, in line with previous estimates. Fortunately, they also reconfirmed their revenue numbers, suggesting that it's tracking in line with expectations. Additionally, our data suggests that revenue is expected to grow faster than the wider industry. The consensus price target held steady at JP¥80,125, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.

With that said, the long-term trajectory of the company's earnings is a lot more important than next year. We have forecasts for Keyence going out to 2027, and you can see them free on our platform here.

Another thing to consider is whether management and directors have been buying or selling stock recently. We provide an overview of all open market stock trades for the last twelve months on our platform, here.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.