Upcoming Dividend • Mar 23
Upcoming dividend of JP¥60.00 per share Eligible shareholders must have bought the stock before 30 March 2026. Payment date: 09 June 2026. Payout ratio is a comfortable 16% and this is well supported by cash flows. Trailing yield: 2.5%. Lower than top quartile of Japanese dividend payers (3.6%). Lower than average of industry peers (3.1%). Reported Earnings • Feb 15
Third quarter 2026 earnings released: EPS: JP¥186 (vs JP¥151 in 3Q 2025) Third quarter 2026 results: EPS: JP¥186. Revenue: JP¥30.3b (down 15% from 3Q 2025). Net income: JP¥2.24b (down 2.4% from 3Q 2025). Profit margin: 7.4% (up from 6.4% in 3Q 2025). The increase in margin was driven by lower expenses. Revenue is expected to decline by 2.4% p.a. on average during the next 3 years, while revenues in the Tech industry in Japan are expected to grow by 2.7%. Valuation Update With 7 Day Price Move • Feb 13
Investor sentiment improves as stock rises 17% After last week's 17% share price gain to JP¥5,420, the stock trades at a forward P/E ratio of 13x. Average forward P/E is 13x in the Tech industry in Japan. Total returns to shareholders of 247% over the past three years. Major Estimate Revision • Dec 06
Consensus EPS estimates increase by 52% The consensus outlook for fiscal year 2026 has been updated. 2026 EPS estimate increased from JP¥354 to JP¥538. Revenue forecast steady at JP¥112.0b. Net income forecast to shrink 42% next year vs 4.3% growth forecast for Tech industry in Japan . Consensus price target up from JP¥3,700 to JP¥4,900. Share price fell 4.6% to JP¥4,810 over the past week. Declared Dividend • Dec 05
First half dividend of JP¥60.00 announced Shareholders will receive a dividend of JP¥60.00. Ex-date: 30th March 2026 Payment date: 9th June 2026 Dividend yield will be 2.5%, which is about the same as the industry average. Sustainability & Growth Dividend is well covered by both earnings (16% earnings payout ratio) and cash flows (6% cash payout ratio). The dividend has increased by an average of 7.2% per year over the past 10 years. However, payments have been volatile during that time. EPS is expected to decline by 60% over the next 3 years. However, it would need to fall by 82% to increase the payout ratio to a potentially unsustainable range. Announcement • Dec 03
Buffalo Inc. to Report Q3, 2026 Results on Feb 12, 2026 Buffalo Inc. announced that they will report Q3, 2026 results on Feb 12, 2026 Reported Earnings • Nov 15
Second quarter 2026 earnings released: EPS: JP¥183 (vs JP¥73.64 in 2Q 2025) Second quarter 2026 results: EPS: JP¥183 (up from JP¥73.64 in 2Q 2025). Revenue: JP¥28.7b (down 24% from 2Q 2025). Net income: JP¥2.31b (up 103% from 2Q 2025). Profit margin: 8.0% (up from 3.0% in 2Q 2025). The increase in margin was driven by lower expenses. Revenue is expected to decline by 3.6% p.a. on average during the next 3 years, while revenues in the Tech industry in Japan are expected to grow by 2.5%. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has increased by 31% per year but the company’s share price has only increased by 16% per year, which means it is significantly lagging earnings growth. Valuation Update With 7 Day Price Move • Nov 13
Investor sentiment improves as stock rises 23% After last week's 23% share price gain to JP¥4,395, the stock trades at a forward P/E ratio of 13x. Average forward P/E is 13x in the Tech industry in Japan. Total returns to shareholders of 193% over the past three years. Major Estimate Revision • Oct 01
Consensus EPS estimates increase by 63% The consensus outlook for earnings per share (EPS) in fiscal year 2026 has improved. 2026 revenue forecast increased from JP¥106.0b to JP¥111.2b. EPS estimate increased from JP¥217 to JP¥354 per share. Net income forecast to shrink 43% next year vs 13% growth forecast for Tech industry in Japan . Consensus price target up from JP¥2,500 to JP¥3,700. Share price rose 2.3% to JP¥3,635 over the past week. Upcoming Dividend • Sep 22
Upcoming dividend of JP¥40.00 per share Eligible shareholders must have bought the stock before 29 September 2025. Payment date: 04 December 2025. Payout ratio is a comfortable 20% and this is well supported by cash flows. Trailing yield: 2.3%. Lower than top quartile of Japanese dividend payers (3.6%). Lower than average of industry peers (2.9%). Announcement • Sep 03
Buffalo Inc. to Report Q2, 2026 Results on Nov 12, 2025 Buffalo Inc. announced that they will report Q2, 2026 results on Nov 12, 2025 Valuation Update With 7 Day Price Move • Aug 15
Investor sentiment improves as stock rises 41% After last week's 41% share price gain to JP¥3,580, the stock trades at a forward P/E ratio of 17x. Average forward P/E is 13x in the Tech industry in Japan. Total returns to shareholders of 121% over the past three years. Reported Earnings • Aug 09
First quarter 2026 earnings released: EPS: JP¥165 (vs JP¥48.13 in 1Q 2025) First quarter 2026 results: EPS: JP¥165 (up from JP¥48.13 in 1Q 2025). Revenue: JP¥31.4b (down 13% from 1Q 2025). Net income: JP¥2.31b (up 187% from 1Q 2025). Profit margin: 7.4% (up from 2.2% in 1Q 2025). The increase in margin was driven by lower expenses. Revenue is expected to decline by 6.1% p.a. on average during the next 3 years, while revenues in the Tech industry in Japan are expected to grow by 2.4%. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has increased by 4% per year but the company’s share price has fallen by 10% per year, which means it is significantly lagging earnings. Declared Dividend • Jul 09
Final dividend of JP¥40.00 announced Shareholders will receive a dividend of JP¥40.00. Ex-date: 29th September 2025 Payment date: 4th December 2025 Dividend yield will be 4.4%, which is higher than the industry average of 2.6%. Sustainability & Growth Dividend is well covered by both earnings (37% earnings payout ratio) and cash flows (8% cash payout ratio). The dividend has increased by an average of 7.2% per year over the past 10 years. However, payments have been volatile during that time. EPS is expected to decline by 59% over the next 3 years. A fall of 59% would increase the payout ratio to a potentially unsustainable range, which means the dividend may be at risk. Announcement • Jun 05
Buffalo Inc. to Report Q1, 2026 Results on Aug 08, 2025 Buffalo Inc. announced that they will report Q1, 2026 results on Aug 08, 2025 Reported Earnings • May 08
Full year 2025 earnings: EPS misses analyst expectations Full year 2025 results: EPS: JP¥384 (up from JP¥180 in FY 2024). Revenue: JP¥143.2b (down 1.8% from FY 2024). Net income: JP¥6.01b (up 99% from FY 2024). Profit margin: 4.2% (up from 2.1% in FY 2024). The increase in margin was driven by lower expenses. Revenue was in line with analyst estimates. Earnings per share (EPS) missed analyst estimates by 2.7%. Revenue is expected to decline by 13% p.a. on average during the next 2 years, while revenues in the Tech industry in Japan are expected to grow by 2.3%. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has fallen by 23% per year whereas the company’s share price has fallen by 18% per year. Announcement • May 07
Buffalo Inc., Annual General Meeting, Jun 25, 2025 Buffalo Inc., Annual General Meeting, Jun 25, 2025. Valuation Update With 7 Day Price Move • Apr 07
Investor sentiment deteriorates as stock falls 18% After last week's 18% share price decline to JP¥1,816, the stock trades at a forward P/E ratio of 6x. Average forward P/E is 11x in the Tech industry in Japan. Total loss to shareholders of 1.8% over the past three years. Upcoming Dividend • Mar 21
Upcoming dividend of JP¥40.00 per share Eligible shareholders must have bought the stock before 28 March 2025. Payment date: 11 June 2025. Payout ratio is a comfortable 37% and this is well supported by cash flows. Trailing yield: 3.5%. Lower than top quartile of Japanese dividend payers (3.7%). Higher than average of industry peers (2.6%). Announcement • Mar 11
Melco Holdings Inc. to Report Fiscal Year 2025 Results on May 07, 2025 Melco Holdings Inc. announced that they will report fiscal year 2025 results on May 07, 2025 Reported Earnings • Feb 14
Third quarter 2025 earnings released: EPS: JP¥151 (vs JP¥45.33 in 3Q 2024) Third quarter 2025 results: EPS: JP¥151 (up from JP¥45.33 in 3Q 2024). Revenue: JP¥35.7b (down 8.6% from 3Q 2024). Net income: JP¥2.29b (up 202% from 3Q 2024). Profit margin: 6.4% (up from 1.9% in 3Q 2024). Revenue is expected to decline by 9.7% p.a. on average during the next 3 years, while revenues in the Tech industry in Japan are expected to grow by 2.5%. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has fallen by 39% per year but the company’s share price has only fallen by 13% per year, which means it has not declined as severely as earnings. New Risk • Feb 13
New minor risk - Share price stability The company's share price has been volatile over the past 3 months. It is more volatile than 75% of Japanese stocks, typically moving 7.4% a week. This is considered a minor risk. Share price volatility indicates the stock is highly sensitive to market conditions or economic conditions rather than being sensitive to its own business performance, which may also be inconsistent. It also increases the risk of potential losses in the short term as the stock tends to have larger drops in price more frequently than other stocks. Currently, the following risks have been identified for the company: Major Risk Earnings are forecast to decline by an average of 26% per year for the foreseeable future. Minor Risks Unstable dividend paying track record with dividend experiencing an annual drop of over 20% in the past. Share price has been volatile over the past 3 months (7.4% average weekly change). Large one-off items impacting financial results. Valuation Update With 7 Day Price Move • Feb 13
Investor sentiment improves as stock rises 26% After last week's 26% share price gain to JP¥2,705, the stock trades at a forward P/E ratio of 17x. Average forward P/E is 13x in the Tech industry in Japan. Total returns to shareholders of 47% over the past three years. Announcement • Feb 12
Melco Holdings Inc. (TSE:6676) announces an Equity Buyback for 2,800,000 shares, representing 18.41% for ¥7,000 million. Melco Holdings Inc. (TSE:6676) announces a share repurchase program. Under the program, the company will repurchase up to 2,800,000 shares, representing 18.41% of its issued share capital (excluding treasury stock), for a total purchase price of ¥7,000 million. The purpose of the program is to strengthen shareholder returns, improve capital efficiency, and implement flexible capital policies in response to changes in the business environment. The program will expire on May 13, 2025. As of January 31, 2025, the company had 15,205,607 issued shares (excluding treasury stock) and 94,393 treasury shares. Announcement • Jan 03
Melco Holdings Inc. to Report Q3, 2025 Results on Feb 12, 2025 Melco Holdings Inc. announced that they will report Q3, 2025 results on Feb 12, 2025 Reported Earnings • Nov 16
Second quarter 2025 earnings released Second quarter 2025 results: Revenue: JP¥38.0b (up 7.7% from 2Q 2024). Net income: JP¥1.14b (up 57% from 2Q 2024). Profit margin: 3.0% (up from 2.1% in 2Q 2024). Revenue is expected to decline by 10% p.a. on average during the next 3 years, while revenues in the Tech industry in Japan are expected to grow by 2.5%. Declared Dividend • Nov 14
Dividend of JP¥40.00 announced Shareholders will receive a dividend of JP¥40.00. Ex-date: 28th March 2025 Payment date: 11th June 2025 Dividend yield will be 81%, which is higher than the industry average of 2.6%. Sustainability & Growth Dividend is covered by both earnings (61% earnings payout ratio) and cash flows (59% cash payout ratio). The dividend has increased by an average of 12% per year over the past 10 years and has been stable with no material reductions to payments, indicating a long track record of dividend growth and stability. EPS is expected to decline by 49% over the next 3 years. Since a fall of 32% would increase the payout ratio to a potentially unsustainable range, the dividend may be at risk. Board Change • Oct 15
Less than half of directors are independent Following the recent departure of a director, there are only 2 independent directors on the board. The company's board is composed of: 2 independent directors. 7 non-independent directors. Outside Independent Director Shogo Kimura was the last independent director to join the board, commencing their role in 2023. The company's minority of independent directors is a risk according to the Simply Wall St Risk Model. New Risk • Sep 27
New major risk - Share price stability The company's share price has been highly volatile over the past 3 months. It is more volatile than 90% of Japanese stocks, typically moving 14% a week. This is considered a major risk. Share price volatility increases the risk of potential losses in the short-term as the stock tends to have larger drops in price more frequently than other stocks. It may also indicate the stock is highly sensitive to market conditions or economic conditions rather than being sensitive to its own business performance, which may also be inconsistent. Currently, the following risks have been identified for the company: Major Risks Share price has been highly volatile over the past 3 months (14% average weekly change). Earnings are forecast to decline by an average of 20% per year for the foreseeable future. Minor Risk Large one-off items impacting financial results. Valuation Update With 7 Day Price Move • Sep 27
Investor sentiment deteriorates as stock falls 40% After last week's 40% share price decline to JP¥2,280, the stock trades at a forward P/E ratio of 12x. Average forward P/E is 14x in the Tech industry in Japan. Total loss to shareholders of 45% over the past three years. Upcoming Dividend • Sep 20
Upcoming dividend of JP¥60.00 per share Eligible shareholders must have bought the stock before 27 September 2024. Payment date: 05 December 2024. Payout ratio is a comfortable 61% and this is well supported by cash flows. Trailing yield: 3.1%. Lower than top quartile of Japanese dividend payers (3.8%). Higher than average of industry peers (2.5%). Announcement • Sep 11
Melco Holdings Inc. to Report Q2, 2025 Results on Nov 12, 2024 Melco Holdings Inc. announced that they will report Q2, 2025 results on Nov 12, 2024 Valuation Update With 7 Day Price Move • Aug 30
Investor sentiment improves as stock rises 17% After last week's 17% share price gain to JP¥3,525, the stock trades at a forward P/E ratio of 17x. Average forward P/E is 15x in the Tech industry in Japan. Total loss to shareholders of 22% over the past three years. Reported Earnings • Aug 13
First quarter 2025 earnings released: EPS: JP¥48.13 (vs JP¥32.65 in 1Q 2024) First quarter 2025 results: EPS: JP¥48.13 (up from JP¥32.65 in 1Q 2024). Revenue: JP¥35.9b (up 3.3% from 1Q 2024). Net income: JP¥804.0m (up 46% from 1Q 2024). Profit margin: 2.2% (up from 1.6% in 1Q 2024). Revenue is forecast to grow 3.5% p.a. on average during the next 2 years, compared to a 2.6% growth forecast for the Tech industry in Japan. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has fallen by 51% per year but the company’s share price has only fallen by 19% per year, which means it has not declined as severely as earnings. New Risk • Aug 05
New minor risk - Share price stability The company's share price has been volatile over the past 3 months. It is more volatile than 75% of Japanese stocks, typically moving 6.4% a week. This is considered a minor risk. Share price volatility indicates the stock is highly sensitive to market conditions or economic conditions rather than being sensitive to its own business performance, which may also be inconsistent. It also increases the risk of potential losses in the short term as the stock tends to have larger drops in price more frequently than other stocks. Currently, the following risks have been identified for the company: Minor Risks Share price has been volatile over the past 3 months (6.4% average weekly change). Large one-off items impacting financial results. Valuation Update With 7 Day Price Move • Aug 05
Investor sentiment deteriorates as stock falls 22% After last week's 22% share price decline to JP¥2,515, the stock trades at a forward P/E ratio of 13x. Average forward P/E is 13x in the Tech industry in Japan. Total loss to shareholders of 53% over the past three years. Declared Dividend • Jul 11
Final dividend of JP¥60.00 announced Dividend of JP¥60.00 is the same as last year. Ex-date: 27th September 2024 Payment date: 5th December 2024 Dividend yield will be 3.5%, which is higher than the industry average of 2.6%. Sustainability & Growth Dividend is covered by both earnings (80% earnings payout ratio) and cash flows (59% cash payout ratio). The dividend has increased by an average of 12% per year over the past 10 years and has been stable with no material reductions to payments, indicating a long track record of dividend growth and stability. EPS is expected to grow by 49% over the next 2 years, which should provide support to the dividend and adequate earnings cover. New Risk • Jul 08
New minor risk - Earnings quality The company has large one-off items impacting its financial results. One-off items were 79% of the size of the rest of the company's trailing 12-month earnings before tax. This is considered a minor risk. One-off items are incomes or expenses that the company does not expect to repeat in future periods. Examples include profits from the sale of a business or expenses from a restructuring or legal settlements. If the company's reported statutory earnings include a large proportion of one-off items it means they may be an unreliable indicator of its true business performance as the earnings were skewed by these incomes or expenses. This is currently the only risk that has been identified for the company. Reported Earnings • May 16
Full year 2024 earnings: EPS exceeds analyst expectations Full year 2024 results: EPS: JP¥180 (down from JP¥181 in FY 2023). Revenue: JP¥145.8b (up 2.2% from FY 2023). Net income: JP¥3.01b (down 1.5% from FY 2023). Profit margin: 2.1% (in line with FY 2023). Revenue was in line with analyst estimates. Earnings per share (EPS) surpassed analyst estimates by 88%. Revenue is forecast to grow 3.4% p.a. on average during the next 2 years, compared to a 2.6% growth forecast for the Tech industry in Japan. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has fallen by 45% per year but the company’s share price has only fallen by 9% per year, which means it has not declined as severely as earnings. Announcement • May 15
Melco Holdings Inc., Annual General Meeting, Jun 26, 2024 Melco Holdings Inc., Annual General Meeting, Jun 26, 2024. Valuation Update With 7 Day Price Move • May 14
Investor sentiment improves as stock rises 16% After last week's 16% share price gain to JP¥3,860, the stock trades at a forward P/E ratio of 23x. Average forward P/E is 14x in the Tech industry in Japan. Total loss to shareholders of 8.7% over the past three years. Announcement • May 14
Melco Holdings Inc. (TSE:6676) announces an Equity Buyback for 2,000,000 shares, representing 11.97% for ¥8,000 million. Melco Holdings Inc. (TSE:6676) announces a share repurchase program. Under the program, the company will repurchase up to 2,000,000 shares, representing 11.97% of its issued share capital (excluding treasury stock), for a total purchase price of ¥8,000 million. The purpose of the program is to strengthen shareholder returns, improve capital efficiency, and implement flexible capital policies in response to changes in the business environment. The program will expire on May 13, 2025. As of March 31, 2024, the company had 16,704,347 issued shares (excluding treasury stock) and 233,526 treasury shares. Announcement • Apr 14
Melco Holdings Inc. Revises Consolidated Earnings Guidance for the Year Ending March 31, 2024 Melco Holdings Inc. revised consolidated earnings guidance for the year ending March 31, 2024. For the year ending March 31, 2024, the company expects net sales of JPY 145,000 million compared to JPY 148,000 million as previously announced, operating profit of JPY 1,900 million compared to JPY 1,800 million as previously announced and profit attributable to owners of parent of JPY 2,300 million compared to JPY 1,200 million or as previously announced and Earnings per share of 137.00 per share compared to JPY 71.57 per share as previously announced. The Company has revised its consolidated earnings forecasts for the full fiscal year ending March 31, 2024, in consideration of the recording as extraordinary income of gain on sale of shares of subsidiaries and associates of approximately ¥2.0 billion resulting from the transfer of SAISON INFORMATION s shares, the recording of income tax expense including a review of deferred tax assets, and recent business trends. Upcoming Dividend • Mar 21
Upcoming dividend of JP¥60.00 per share Eligible shareholders must have bought the stock before 28 March 2024. Payment date: 10 June 2024. Payout ratio is on the higher end at 80% but the company is not cash flow positive. Trailing yield: 3.5%. Within top quartile of Japanese dividend payers (3.2%). Higher than average of industry peers (2.5%). New Risk • Mar 13
New minor risk - Shareholder dilution The company's shareholders have been diluted in the past year. Increase in shares outstanding: 5.2% This is considered a minor risk. Shareholder dilution occurs when there is an increase in the number of shares on issue that is not proportionally distributed between all shareholders. Often due to the company raising equity capital or some options being converted into stock. All else being equal, if there are more shares outstanding then each existing share will be entitled to a lower proportion of the company's total earnings, thus reducing earnings per share (EPS). While dilution might not always result in lower EPS (like if the company is using the capital to fund an EPS accretive acquisition) in a lot cases it does, along with lower dividends per share and less voting power at shareholder meetings. Currently, the following risks have been identified for the company: Minor Risks Paying a dividend despite having no free cash flows. Profit margins are more than 30% lower than last year (1.7% net profit margin). Shareholders have been diluted in the past year (5.2% increase in shares outstanding). Announcement • Mar 06
Melco Holdings Inc. to Report Fiscal Year 2024 Results on May 13, 2024 Melco Holdings Inc. announced that they will report fiscal year 2024 results on May 13, 2024 Buy Or Sell Opportunity • Mar 05
Now 20% undervalued after recent price drop Over the last 90 days, the stock has fallen 6.5% to JP¥3,185. The fair value is estimated to be JP¥4,006, however this is not to be taken as a buy recommendation but rather should be used as a guide only. Revenue has grown by 3.8% over the last 3 years. Earnings per share has declined by 34%. Reported Earnings • Feb 15
Third quarter 2024 earnings released: EPS: JP¥45.32 (vs JP¥23.17 in 3Q 2023) Third quarter 2024 results: EPS: JP¥45.32 (up from JP¥23.17 in 3Q 2023). Revenue: JP¥39.0b (up 1.4% from 3Q 2023). Net income: JP¥758.0m (up 94% from 3Q 2023). Profit margin: 1.9% (up from 1.0% in 3Q 2023). Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has fallen by 34% per year but the company’s share price has only fallen by 6% per year, which means it has not declined as severely as earnings. Buy Or Sell Opportunity • Feb 15
Now 20% undervalued after recent price drop Over the last 90 days, the stock has fallen 5.7% to JP¥3,160. The fair value is estimated to be JP¥3,963, however this is not to be taken as a buy recommendation but rather should be used as a guide only. Revenue has grown by 3.8% over the last 3 years. Earnings per share has declined by 34%. Announcement • Dec 07
Melco Holdings Inc. to Report Q3, 2024 Results on Feb 13, 2024 Melco Holdings Inc. announced that they will report Q3, 2024 results on Feb 13, 2024 Reported Earnings • Nov 15
Second quarter 2024 earnings: EPS misses analyst expectations Second quarter 2024 results: EPS: JP¥43.17 (down from JP¥62.17 in 2Q 2023). Revenue: JP¥35.3b (up 2.7% from 2Q 2023). Net income: JP¥725.0m (down 31% from 2Q 2023). Profit margin: 2.1% (down from 3.0% in 2Q 2023). The decrease in margin was driven by higher expenses. Revenue was in line with analyst estimates. Earnings per share (EPS) missed analyst estimates by 62%. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has fallen by 19% per year but the company’s share price has increased by 4% per year, which means it is well ahead of earnings. Upcoming Dividend • Sep 21
Upcoming dividend of JP¥60.00 per share at 3.8% yield Eligible shareholders must have bought the stock before 28 September 2023. Payment date: 06 December 2023. Payout ratio is on the higher end at 82% but the company is not cash flow positive. Trailing yield: 3.8%. Within top quartile of Japanese dividend payers (3.3%). Higher than average of industry peers (2.7%). Announcement • Sep 03
Melco Holdings Inc. to Report Q2, 2024 Results on Nov 13, 2023 Melco Holdings Inc. announced that they will report Q2, 2024 results on Nov 13, 2023 Reported Earnings • Aug 10
First quarter 2024 earnings released: EPS: JP¥32.65 (vs JP¥67.62 in 1Q 2023) First quarter 2024 results: EPS: JP¥32.65 (down from JP¥67.62 in 1Q 2023). Revenue: JP¥34.7b (up 1.2% from 1Q 2023). Net income: JP¥550.0m (down 52% from 1Q 2023). Profit margin: 1.6% (down from 3.3% in 1Q 2023). The decrease in margin was driven by higher expenses. Revenue is forecast to grow 2.4% p.a. on average during the next 2 years, compared to a 2.4% growth forecast for the Tech industry in Japan. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has fallen by 1% per year but the company’s share price has increased by 6% per year, which means it is well ahead of earnings. Announcement • Jun 10
Melco Holdings Inc. to Report Q1, 2024 Results on Aug 09, 2023 Melco Holdings Inc. announced that they will report Q1, 2024 results on Aug 09, 2023 Announcement • May 17
Melco Holdings Inc., Annual General Meeting, Jun 26, 2023 Melco Holdings Inc., Annual General Meeting, Jun 26, 2023. Reported Earnings • May 16
Full year 2023 earnings: EPS misses analyst expectations Full year 2023 results: EPS: JP¥181 (down from JP¥584 in FY 2022). Revenue: JP¥142.6b (down 1.1% from FY 2022). Net income: JP¥3.06b (down 67% from FY 2022). Profit margin: 2.1% (down from 6.5% in FY 2022). The decrease in margin was primarily driven by higher expenses. Revenue was in line with analyst estimates. Earnings per share (EPS) missed analyst estimates by 31%. Revenue is forecast to grow 2.2% p.a. on average during the next 2 years, compared to a 1.7% growth forecast for the Tech industry in Japan. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has increased by 15% per year but the company’s share price has only increased by 9% per year, which means it is significantly lagging earnings growth. Upcoming Dividend • Mar 23
Upcoming dividend of JP¥60.00 per share at 3.8% yield Eligible shareholders must have bought the stock before 30 March 2023. Payment date: 30 June 2023. Payout ratio is a comfortable 21% and this is well supported by cash flows. Trailing yield: 3.8%. Within top quartile of Japanese dividend payers (3.6%). Higher than average of industry peers (3.1%). Reported Earnings • Feb 14
Third quarter 2023 earnings released: EPS: JP¥23.17 (vs JP¥131 in 3Q 2022) Third quarter 2023 results: EPS: JP¥23.17 (down from JP¥131 in 3Q 2022). Revenue: JP¥38.5b (up 2.2% from 3Q 2022). Net income: JP¥391.0m (down 81% from 3Q 2022). Profit margin: 1.0% (down from 5.6% in 3Q 2022). The decrease in margin was driven by higher expenses. Revenue is forecast to grow 1.6% p.a. on average during the next 3 years, compared to a 2.1% growth forecast for the Tech industry in Japan. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has increased by 29% per year but the company’s share price has only increased by 10% per year, which means it is significantly lagging earnings growth. Announcement • Feb 14
Melco Holdings Inc. (TSE:6676) announces an Equity Buyback for 1,000,000 shares, representing 5.93% for ¥3,500 million. Melco Holdings Inc. (TSE:6676) announces a share repurchase program. Under the program, the company will repurchase up to 1,000,000 shares, representing 5.93% of its issued share capital (excluding treasury stock), for a total purchase price of ¥3,500 million. The purpose of the program is to enhance the shareholder returns, to improve capital efficiency and to implement a capital policy that responds to changes in the business environment. The program will expire on February 13, 2024. As of December 31, 2022, the company had 16,873,367 issued shares (excluding treasury stock) and 1,064,506 treasury shares. Announcement • Nov 30
Melco Holdings Inc. to Report Q3, 2023 Results on Jan 30, 2023 Melco Holdings Inc. announced that they will report Q3, 2023 results on Jan 30, 2023 Board Change • Nov 16
Less than half of directors are independent There are 5 new directors who have joined the board in the last 3 years. Of these new board members, 2 were independent directors. The company's board is composed of: 4 independent directors. 7 non-independent directors. Independent Outside Director Jun Kamiya was the last independent director to join the board, commencing their role in 2022. The following issues are considered to be risks according to the Simply Wall St Risk Model: Minority of independent directors. Lack of board continuity. Buying Opportunity • Sep 26
Now 21% undervalued after recent price drop Over the last 90 days, the stock is down 10%. The fair value is estimated to be JP¥3,917, however this is not to be taken as a buy recommendation but rather should be used as a guide only. Revenue has grown by 10% over the last 3 years. Earnings per share has grown by 47%. Revenue is forecast to grow by 8.0% in 2 years. Earnings is forecast to decline by 13% in the next 2 years. Upcoming Dividend • Sep 22
Upcoming dividend of JP¥60.00 per share Eligible shareholders must have bought the stock before 29 September 2022. Payment date: 22 November 2022. Payout ratio is a comfortable 22% but the company is not cash flow positive. Trailing yield: 3.8%. Within top quartile of Japanese dividend payers (3.7%). Higher than average of industry peers (2.8%). Announcement • Sep 01
Melco Holdings Inc. to Report Q2, 2023 Results on Oct 28, 2022 Melco Holdings Inc. announced that they will report Q2, 2023 results on Oct 28, 2022 Reported Earnings • Jul 27
First quarter 2023 earnings released: EPS: JP¥67.62 (vs JP¥156 in 1Q 2022) First quarter 2023 results: EPS: JP¥67.62 (down from JP¥156 in 1Q 2022). Revenue: JP¥34.3b (down 4.9% from 1Q 2022). Net income: JP¥1.14b (down 54% from 1Q 2022). Profit margin: 3.3% (down from 6.9% in 1Q 2022). The decrease in margin was driven by lower revenue. Over the next year, revenue is forecast to grow 4.6%, compared to a 8.8% growth forecast for the industry in Japan. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has increased by 47% per year but the company’s share price has only increased by 8% per year, which means it is significantly lagging earnings growth. Announcement • Jun 12
Melco Holdings Inc. to Report Q1, 2023 Results on Jul 26, 2022 Melco Holdings Inc. announced that they will report Q1, 2023 results on Jul 26, 2022 Major Estimate Revision • Jun 11
Consensus forecasts updated The consensus outlook for 2023 has been updated. 2023 revenue forecast increased from JP¥145.1b to JP¥148.1b. EPS estimate fell from JP¥471 to JP¥376 per share. Net income forecast to shrink 32% next year vs 3.2% growth forecast for Tech industry in Japan . Consensus price target of JP¥4,200 unchanged from last update. Share price fell 4.0% to JP¥3,495 over the past week.