Earnings Beat: Ibiden Co.,Ltd. Just Beat Analyst Forecasts, And Analysts Have Been Updating Their Models

Last week saw the newest half-year earnings release from Ibiden Co.,Ltd. (TSE:4062), an important milestone in the company's journey to build a stronger business. The result was positive overall - although revenues of JP¥182b were in line with what the analysts predicted, IbidenLtd surprised by delivering a statutory profit of JP¥147 per share, modestly greater than expected. The analysts typically update their forecasts at each earnings report, and we can judge from their estimates whether their view of the company has changed or if there are any new concerns to be aware of. We thought readers would find it interesting to see the analysts latest (statutory) post-earnings forecasts for next year.

See our latest analysis for IbidenLtd

Taking into account the latest results, the consensus forecast from IbidenLtd's 17 analysts is for revenues of JP¥385.3b in 2025. This reflects a modest 5.7% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Statutory per-share earnings are expected to be JP¥243, roughly flat on the last 12 months. Before this earnings report, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of JP¥393.0b and earnings per share (EPS) of JP¥247 in 2025. So it's pretty clear that, although the analysts have updated their estimates, there's been no major change in expectations for the business following the latest results.

There were no changes to revenue or earnings estimates or the price target of JP¥6,400, suggesting that the company has met expectations in its recent result. Fixating on a single price target can be unwise though, since the consensus target is effectively the average of analyst price targets. As a result, some investors like to look at the range of estimates to see if there are any diverging opinions on the company's valuation. Currently, the most bullish analyst values IbidenLtd at JP¥8,500 per share, while the most bearish prices it at JP¥3,370. Note the wide gap in analyst price targets? This implies to us that there is a fairly broad range of possible scenarios for the underlying business.

Taking a look at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can understand these forecasts is to see how they compare to both past performance and industry growth estimates. It's clear from the latest estimates that IbidenLtd's rate of growth is expected to accelerate meaningfully, with the forecast 12% annualised revenue growth to the end of 2025 noticeably faster than its historical growth of 6.3% p.a. over the past five years. Compare this with other companies in the same industry, which are forecast to grow their revenue 7.3% annually. Factoring in the forecast acceleration in revenue, it's pretty clear that IbidenLtd is expected to grow much faster than its industry.

The Bottom Line

The most obvious conclusion is that there's been no major change in the business' prospects in recent times, with the analysts holding their earnings forecasts steady, in line with previous estimates. Happily, there were no major changes to revenue forecasts, with the business still expected to grow faster than the wider industry. The consensus price target held steady at JP¥6,400, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.

Keeping that in mind, we still think that the longer term trajectory of the business is much more important for investors to consider. We have estimates - from multiple IbidenLtd analysts - going out to 2027, and you can see them free on our platform here.

And what about risks? Every company has them, and we've spotted 1 warning sign for IbidenLtd you should know about.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.