Optimistic Investors Push AR advanced technology, Inc. (TSE:5578) Shares Up 28% But Growth Is Lacking

AR advanced technology, Inc. (TSE:5578) shares have had a really impressive month, gaining 28% after a shaky period beforehand. Unfortunately, the gains of the last month did little to right the losses of the last year with the stock still down 37% over that time.

Following the firm bounce in price, AR advanced technology's price-to-earnings (or "P/E") ratio of 17.6x might make it look like a sell right now compared to the market in Japan, where around half of the companies have P/E ratios below 13x and even P/E's below 9x are quite common. Although, it's not wise to just take the P/E at face value as there may be an explanation why it's as high as it is.

For instance, AR advanced technology's receding earnings in recent times would have to be some food for thought. One possibility is that the P/E is high because investors think the company will still do enough to outperform the broader market in the near future. You'd really hope so, otherwise you're paying a pretty hefty price for no particular reason.

View our latest analysis for AR advanced technology

Although there are no analyst estimates available for AR advanced technology, take a look at this free data-rich visualisation to see how the company stacks up on earnings, revenue and cash flow.

Does Growth Match The High P/E?

AR advanced technology's P/E ratio would be typical for a company that's expected to deliver solid growth, and importantly, perform better than the market.

If we review the last year of earnings, dishearteningly the company's profits fell to the tune of 21%. As a result, earnings from three years ago have also fallen 25% overall. Therefore, it's fair to say the earnings growth recently has been undesirable for the company.

In contrast to the company, the rest of the market is expected to grow by 12% over the next year, which really puts the company's recent medium-term earnings decline into perspective.

In light of this, it's alarming that AR advanced technology's P/E sits above the majority of other companies. It seems most investors are ignoring the recent poor growth rate and are hoping for a turnaround in the company's business prospects. There's a very good chance existing shareholders are setting themselves up for future disappointment if the P/E falls to levels more in line with the recent negative growth rates.

The Final Word

The large bounce in AR advanced technology's shares has lifted the company's P/E to a fairly high level. Using the price-to-earnings ratio alone to determine if you should sell your stock isn't sensible, however it can be a practical guide to the company's future prospects.

We've established that AR advanced technology currently trades on a much higher than expected P/E since its recent earnings have been in decline over the medium-term. Right now we are increasingly uncomfortable with the high P/E as this earnings performance is highly unlikely to support such positive sentiment for long. If recent medium-term earnings trends continue, it will place shareholders' investments at significant risk and potential investors in danger of paying an excessive premium.

There are also other vital risk factors to consider and we've discovered 3 warning signs for AR advanced technology (1 can't be ignored!) that you should be aware of before investing here.

You might be able to find a better investment than AR advanced technology. If you want a selection of possible candidates, check out this free list of interesting companies that trade on a low P/E (but have proven they can grow earnings).

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.