Sansan, Inc. Just Missed Earnings - But Analysts Have Updated Their Models

Shareholders might have noticed that Sansan, Inc. (TSE:4443) filed its yearly result this time last week. The early response was not positive, with shares down 7.5% to JP¥1,896 in the past week. It looks like a pretty bad result, all things considered. Although revenues of JP¥43b were in line with analyst predictions, statutory earnings fell badly short, missing estimates by 85% to hit JP¥3.36 per share. The analysts typically update their forecasts at each earnings report, and we can judge from their estimates whether their view of the company has changed or if there are any new concerns to be aware of. We thought readers would find it interesting to see the analysts latest (statutory) post-earnings forecasts for next year.

AI is about to change healthcare. These 20 stocks are working on everything from early diagnostics to drug discovery. The best part - they are all under $10bn in marketcap - there is still time to get in early.

Taking into account the latest results, the most recent consensus for Sansan from eight analysts is for revenues of JP¥54.4b in 2026. If met, it would imply a huge 26% increase on its revenue over the past 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are predicted to surge 1,219% to JP¥44.30. Before this earnings report, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of JP¥53.3b and earnings per share (EPS) of JP¥42.71 in 2026. So there seems to have been a moderate uplift in sentiment following the latest results, given the upgrades to both revenue and earnings per share forecasts for next year.

See our latest analysis for Sansan

Despite these upgrades,the analysts have not made any major changes to their price target of JP¥2,457, suggesting that the higher estimates are not likely to have a long term impact on what the stock is worth. The consensus price target is just an average of individual analyst targets, so - it could be handy to see how wide the range of underlying estimates is. Currently, the most bullish analyst values Sansan at JP¥3,400 per share, while the most bearish prices it at JP¥2,000. This shows there is still a bit of diversity in estimates, but analysts don't appear to be totally split on the stock as though it might be a success or failure situation.

Taking a look at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can understand these forecasts is to see how they compare to both past performance and industry growth estimates. We can infer from the latest estimates that forecasts expect a continuation of Sansan'shistorical trends, as the 26% annualised revenue growth to the end of 2026 is roughly in line with the 24% annual growth over the past five years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in a similar industry are forecast to see their revenues grow 10% per year. So although Sansan is expected to maintain its revenue growth rate, it's definitely expected to grow faster than the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The biggest takeaway for us is the consensus earnings per share upgrade, which suggests a clear improvement in sentiment around Sansan's earnings potential next year. Happily, they also upgraded their revenue estimates, and are forecasting them to grow faster than the wider industry. The consensus price target held steady at JP¥2,457, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.

With that in mind, we wouldn't be too quick to come to a conclusion on Sansan. Long-term earnings power is much more important than next year's profits. We have forecasts for Sansan going out to 2028, and you can see them free on our platform here.

Don't forget that there may still be risks. For instance, we've identified 2 warning signs for Sansan that you should be aware of.

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.