A Look at Nomura Research Institute’s (TSE:4307) Valuation Following New Earnings Guidance and Dividend Hike

Nomura Research Institute (TSE:4307) has just released its earnings guidance for the fiscal year ending March 2026, along with plans to raise both its quarterly and full-year dividends compared to last year. This move is drawing fresh attention from investors who closely monitor profit outlooks and shareholder rewards.

See our latest analysis for Nomura Research Institute.

Nomura Research Institute’s recent guidance and dividend boost landed as the stock was already building impressive momentum, with a roughly 34% year-to-date share price return and a three-year total shareholder return of 91%. Updates like these have clearly reinforced investor confidence, even as the rally continues its streak.

If Nomura Research Institute’s consistent upward trend has you scouting for more high-potential names, now could be the perfect time to broaden your approach and discover fast growing stocks with high insider ownership

With the stock riding high on strong returns and improved guidance, the question now is whether Nomura Research Institute still holds hidden value or if future growth is already fully reflected in its share price.

Most Popular Narrative: 0.3% Overvalued

With Nomura Research Institute’s fair value from the most widely followed narrative now just above the recent ¥6,159 close, market sentiment is balanced on a knife’s edge. The pricing is tight enough to test investor conviction and turn the spotlight on what is driving this valuation forecast.

The buildup of a land bank of ¥2 trillion for mid to long-term projects ensures a steady pipeline for future development, likely boosting future earnings and revenue stability. The company’s new projects in Vietnam and additional investments in the U.S. indicate a strategic international expansion, enhancing the potential for increased operating revenue and profit from diversified geographic markets.

Read the complete narrative.

Curious how capital allocation and cross-border projects could be the x-factor in this valuation? Only the full narrative reveals the future profit assumptions and exactly what analysts believe it will take to justify such a premium. You’ll want to see which financial levers make this possible, and why insiders might already be betting on it.

Result: Fair Value of ¥6,142.5 (OVERVALUED)

Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts.

However, analysts warn that slowing property sales or rising capital demands abroad could threaten Nomura Research Institute's projected growth and weaken current market conviction.

Find out about the key risks to this Nomura Research Institute narrative.

Build Your Own Nomura Research Institute Narrative

If you see the situation differently or want to reach your own conclusions, you can build your perspective from the same numbers in just minutes. Do it your way

A good starting point is our analysis highlighting 2 key rewards investors are optimistic about regarding Nomura Research Institute.

Looking for More Investment Ideas?

Capitalise on today’s momentum and set yourself up for tomorrow’s wins by searching for exciting companies making waves in overlooked corners of the market.

• Unlock the potential of disruptive healthcare breakthroughs with these 32 healthcare AI stocks to see which companies are at the forefront of AI-driven innovation in medicine.
• Catch what others might miss by moving early on these 3581 penny stocks with strong financials that are delivering unexpected growth and surprising returns as they break out from the pack.
• Tap into the future of secure transactions and digital assets by tracking these 82 cryptocurrency and blockchain stocks as they pioneer breakthroughs in blockchain technology and cryptocurrency applications.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team@simplywallst.com