Tazmo's (TSE:6266) Soft Earnings Don't Show The Whole Picture

Shareholders appeared unconcerned with Tazmo Co., Ltd.'s (TSE:6266) lackluster earnings report last week. We think that the softer headline numbers might be getting counterbalanced by some positive underlying factors.

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Examining Cashflow Against Tazmo's Earnings

As finance nerds would already know, the accrual ratio from cashflow is a key measure for assessing how well a company's free cash flow (FCF) matches its profit. The accrual ratio subtracts the FCF from the profit for a given period, and divides the result by the average operating assets of the company over that time. This ratio tells us how much of a company's profit is not backed by free cashflow.

That means a negative accrual ratio is a good thing, because it shows that the company is bringing in more free cash flow than its profit would suggest. While it's not a problem to have a positive accrual ratio, indicating a certain level of non-cash profits, a high accrual ratio is arguably a bad thing, because it indicates paper profits are not matched by cash flow. Notably, there is some academic evidence that suggests that a high accrual ratio is a bad sign for near-term profits, generally speaking.

Over the twelve months to June 2025, Tazmo recorded an accrual ratio of -0.10. That implies it has good cash conversion, and implies that its free cash flow solidly exceeded its profit last year. To wit, it produced free cash flow of JP¥6.1b during the period, dwarfing its reported profit of JP¥3.83b. Tazmo's free cash flow improved over the last year, which is generally good to see.

That might leave you wondering what analysts are forecasting in terms of future profitability. Luckily, you can click here to see an interactive graph depicting future profitability, based on their estimates.

Our Take On Tazmo's Profit Performance

As we discussed above, Tazmo has perfectly satisfactory free cash flow relative to profit. Based on this observation, we consider it likely that Tazmo's statutory profit actually understates its earnings potential! And on top of that, its earnings per share have grown at 43% per year over the last three years. The goal of this article has been to assess how well we can rely on the statutory earnings to reflect the company's potential, but there is plenty more to consider. So while earnings quality is important, it's equally important to consider the risks facing Tazmo at this point in time. In terms of investment risks, we've identified 1 warning sign with Tazmo, and understanding it should be part of your investment process.

Today we've zoomed in on a single data point to better understand the nature of Tazmo's profit. But there are plenty of other ways to inform your opinion of a company. Some people consider a high return on equity to be a good sign of a quality business. So you may wish to see this free collection of companies boasting high return on equity, or this list of stocks with high insider ownership.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.