Yamada Holdings Co., Ltd. Just Missed Earnings - But Analysts Have Updated Their Models

As you might know, Yamada Holdings Co., Ltd. (TSE:9831) recently reported its half-yearly numbers. Statutory earnings per share fell badly short of expectations, coming in at JP¥5.87, some 37% below analyst forecasts, although revenues were okay, approximately in line with analyst estimates at JP¥800b. Following the result, the analysts have updated their earnings model, and it would be good to know whether they think there's been a strong change in the company's prospects, or if it's business as usual. We've gathered the most recent statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their earnings models, following these results.

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Taking into account the latest results, Yamada Holdings' eight analysts currently expect revenues in 2026 to be JP¥1.66t, approximately in line with the last 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are predicted to rise 7.7% to JP¥43.17. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been anticipated revenues of JP¥1.66t and earnings per share (EPS) of JP¥42.74 in 2026. So it's pretty clear that, although the analysts have updated their estimates, there's been no major change in expectations for the business following the latest results.

See our latest analysis for Yamada Holdings

It will come as no surprise then, to learn that the consensus price target is largely unchanged at JP¥491. There's another way to think about price targets though, and that's to look at the range of price targets put forward by analysts, because a wide range of estimates could suggest a diverse view on possible outcomes for the business. The most optimistic Yamada Holdings analyst has a price target of JP¥540 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at JP¥460. Even so, with a relatively close grouping of estimates, it looks like the analysts are quite confident in their valuations, suggesting Yamada Holdings is an easy business to forecast or the the analysts are all using similar assumptions.

These estimates are interesting, but it can be useful to paint some more broad strokes when seeing how forecasts compare, both to the Yamada Holdings' past performance and to peers in the same industry. One thing stands out from these estimates, which is that Yamada Holdings is forecast to grow faster in the future than it has in the past, with revenues expected to display 3.5% annualised growth until the end of 2026. If achieved, this would be a much better result than the 1.0% annual decline over the past five years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in a similar industry are forecast to see their revenue grow 6.9% per year. Although Yamada Holdings' revenues are expected to improve, it seems that the analysts are still bearish on the business, forecasting it to grow slower than the broader industry.

The Bottom Line

The most obvious conclusion is that there's been no major change in the business' prospects in recent times, with the analysts holding their earnings forecasts steady, in line with previous estimates. Fortunately, the analysts also reconfirmed their revenue estimates, suggesting that it's tracking in line with expectations. Although our data does suggest that Yamada Holdings' revenue is expected to perform worse than the wider industry. The consensus price target held steady at JP¥491, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.

With that said, the long-term trajectory of the company's earnings is a lot more important than next year. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for Yamada Holdings going out to 2028, and you can see them free on our platform here..

Don't forget that there may still be risks. For instance, we've identified 2 warning signs for Yamada Holdings (1 is significant) you should be aware of.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.