Getting In Cheap On Seria Co., Ltd. (TSE:2782) Is Unlikely

Seria Co., Ltd.'s (TSE:2782) price-to-earnings (or "P/E") ratio of 20.5x might make it look like a sell right now compared to the market in Japan, where around half of the companies have P/E ratios below 13x and even P/E's below 10x are quite common. However, the P/E might be high for a reason and it requires further investigation to determine if it's justified.

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There hasn't been much to differentiate Seria's and the market's earnings growth lately. It might be that many expect the mediocre earnings performance to strengthen positively, which has kept the P/E from falling. You'd really hope so, otherwise you're paying a pretty hefty price for no particular reason.

Check out our latest analysis for Seria

Keen to find out how analysts think Seria's future stacks up against the industry? In that case, our free report is a great place to start.

What Are Growth Metrics Telling Us About The High P/E?

There's an inherent assumption that a company should outperform the market for P/E ratios like Seria's to be considered reasonable.

Taking a look back first, we see that the company managed to grow earnings per share by a handy 11% last year. Ultimately though, it couldn't turn around the poor performance of the prior period, with EPS shrinking 6.0% in total over the last three years. Therefore, it's fair to say the earnings growth recently has been undesirable for the company.

Shifting to the future, estimates from the seven analysts covering the company suggest earnings should grow by 9.3% each year over the next three years. With the market predicted to deliver 9.0% growth per year, the company is positioned for a comparable earnings result.

With this information, we find it interesting that Seria is trading at a high P/E compared to the market. Apparently many investors in the company are more bullish than analysts indicate and aren't willing to let go of their stock right now. These shareholders may be setting themselves up for disappointment if the P/E falls to levels more in line with the growth outlook.

The Final Word

Typically, we'd caution against reading too much into price-to-earnings ratios when settling on investment decisions, though it can reveal plenty about what other market participants think about the company.

Our examination of Seria's analyst forecasts revealed that its market-matching earnings outlook isn't impacting its high P/E as much as we would have predicted. When we see an average earnings outlook with market-like growth, we suspect the share price is at risk of declining, sending the high P/E lower. This places shareholders' investments at risk and potential investors in danger of paying an unnecessary premium.

The company's balance sheet is another key area for risk analysis. Take a look at our free balance sheet analysis for Seria with six simple checks on some of these key factors.

If these risks are making you reconsider your opinion on Seria, explore our interactive list of high quality stocks to get an idea of what else is out there.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.