GOLDCREST Co.,Ltd. (TSE:8871) shareholders are probably feeling a little disappointed, since its shares fell 5.9% to JP¥2,638 in the week after its latest first-quarter results. Revenue of JP¥6.7b beat expectations by an impressive 82%, while statutory earnings per share (EPS) were JP¥113, in line with estimates. The analysts typically update their forecasts at each earnings report, and we can judge from their estimates whether their view of the company has changed or if there are any new concerns to be aware of. Readers will be glad to know we've aggregated the latest statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their mind on GOLDCRESTLtd after the latest results.
Check out our latest analysis for GOLDCRESTLtd
Taking into account the latest results, the current consensus, from the dual analysts covering GOLDCRESTLtd, is for revenues of JP¥26.6b in 2025. This implies an uneasy 8.4% reduction in GOLDCRESTLtd's revenue over the past 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are expected to nosedive 20% to JP¥128 in the same period. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been anticipated revenues of JP¥26.6b and earnings per share (EPS) of JP¥128 in 2025. The consensus analysts don't seem to have seen anything in these results that would have changed their view on the business, given there's been no major change to their estimates.
With the analysts reconfirming their revenue and earnings forecasts, it's surprising to see that the price target rose 5.0% to JP¥2,815. It looks as though they previously had some doubts over whether the business would live up to their expectations.
Taking a look at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can understand these forecasts is to see how they compare to both past performance and industry growth estimates. One thing that stands out from these estimates is that revenues are expected to keep falling until the end of 2025, roughly in line with the historical decline of 11% per annum over the past five years. Compare this against analyst estimates for companies in the broader industry, which suggest that revenues (in aggregate) are expected to grow 4.4% annually. So while a broad number of companies are forecast to grow, unfortunately GOLDCRESTLtd is expected to see its revenue affected worse than other companies in the industry.
The Bottom Line
The most obvious conclusion is that there's been no major change in the business' prospects in recent times, with the analysts holding their earnings forecasts steady, in line with previous estimates. Fortunately, the analysts also reconfirmed their revenue estimates, suggesting that it's tracking in line with expectations. Although our data does suggest that GOLDCRESTLtd's revenue is expected to perform worse than the wider industry. We note an upgrade to the price target, suggesting that the analysts believes the intrinsic value of the business is likely to improve over time.
With that said, the long-term trajectory of the company's earnings is a lot more important than next year. We have analyst estimates for GOLDCRESTLtd going out as far as 2027, and you can see them free on our platform here.
It is also worth noting that we have found 1 warning sign for GOLDCRESTLtd that you need to take into consideration.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team@simplywallst.com
About TSE:8871
GOLDCRESTLtd
Engages in planning, development, and sale of new condominiums in Japan.
Excellent balance sheet with proven track record and pays a dividend.
