Is Mitsui Fudosan (TSE:8801) A Risky Investment?

Legendary fund manager Li Lu (who Charlie Munger backed) once said, 'The biggest investment risk is not the volatility of prices, but whether you will suffer a permanent loss of capital.' So it might be obvious that you need to consider debt, when you think about how risky any given stock is, because too much debt can sink a company. Importantly, Mitsui Fudosan Co., Ltd. (TSE:8801) does carry debt. But the real question is whether this debt is making the company risky.

When Is Debt Dangerous?

Generally speaking, debt only becomes a real problem when a company can't easily pay it off, either by raising capital or with its own cash flow. In the worst case scenario, a company can go bankrupt if it cannot pay its creditors. However, a more frequent (but still costly) occurrence is where a company must issue shares at bargain-basement prices, permanently diluting shareholders, just to shore up its balance sheet. Having said that, the most common situation is where a company manages its debt reasonably well - and to its own advantage. When we think about a company's use of debt, we first look at cash and debt together.

See our latest analysis for Mitsui Fudosan

What Is Mitsui Fudosan's Net Debt?

As you can see below, at the end of September 2024, Mitsui Fudosan had JP¥4.90t of debt, up from JP¥4.65t a year ago. Click the image for more detail. However, it also had JP¥126.4b in cash, and so its net debt is JP¥4.78t.

A Look At Mitsui Fudosan's Liabilities

Zooming in on the latest balance sheet data, we can see that Mitsui Fudosan had liabilities of JP¥1.72t due within 12 months and liabilities of JP¥4.97t due beyond that. Offsetting these obligations, it had cash of JP¥126.4b as well as receivables valued at JP¥110.7b due within 12 months. So its liabilities outweigh the sum of its cash and (near-term) receivables by JP¥6.45t.

This deficit casts a shadow over the JP¥3.49t company, like a colossus towering over mere mortals. So we definitely think shareholders need to watch this one closely. After all, Mitsui Fudosan would likely require a major re-capitalisation if it had to pay its creditors today.

In order to size up a company's debt relative to its earnings, we calculate its net debt divided by its earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) and its earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) divided by its interest expense (its interest cover). The advantage of this approach is that we take into account both the absolute quantum of debt (with net debt to EBITDA) and the actual interest expenses associated with that debt (with its interest cover ratio).

With a net debt to EBITDA ratio of 10.2, it's fair to say Mitsui Fudosan does have a significant amount of debt. But the good news is that it boasts fairly comforting interest cover of 4.8 times, suggesting it can responsibly service its obligations. Sadly, Mitsui Fudosan's EBIT actually dropped 6.8% in the last year. If that earnings trend continues then its debt load will grow heavy like the heart of a polar bear watching its sole cub. The balance sheet is clearly the area to focus on when you are analysing debt. But it is future earnings, more than anything, that will determine Mitsui Fudosan's ability to maintain a healthy balance sheet going forward. So if you want to see what the professionals think, you might find this free report on analyst profit forecasts to be interesting.

Finally, a business needs free cash flow to pay off debt; accounting profits just don't cut it. So we always check how much of that EBIT is translated into free cash flow. Over the last three years, Mitsui Fudosan recorded negative free cash flow, in total. Debt is usually more expensive, and almost always more risky in the hands of a company with negative free cash flow. Shareholders ought to hope for an improvement.

Our View

On the face of it, Mitsui Fudosan's net debt to EBITDA left us tentative about the stock, and its level of total liabilities was no more enticing than the one empty restaurant on the busiest night of the year. But at least its interest cover is not so bad. After considering the datapoints discussed, we think Mitsui Fudosan has too much debt. While some investors love that sort of risky play, it's certainly not our cup of tea. When analysing debt levels, the balance sheet is the obvious place to start. But ultimately, every company can contain risks that exist outside of the balance sheet. For example Mitsui Fudosan has 2 warning signs (and 1 which is concerning) we think you should know about.

When all is said and done, sometimes its easier to focus on companies that don't even need debt. Readers can access a list of growth stocks with zero net debt 100% free, right now.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.