Why Nomura Real Estate Holdings (TSE:3231) Is Down 5.4% After Slashing Its Quarterly Dividend

• On October 30, 2025, Nomura Real Estate Holdings reported its Q2 2026 earnings, announced a second-quarter dividend of ¥18.00 per share (significantly lower than last year), and released consolidated earnings guidance for the fiscal year ending March 2026 that includes expected operating revenue of ¥940 billion and profit attributable to owners of parent of ¥75 billion.
• The sharply reduced dividend for the quarter highlights a substantial shift in cash return policy compared to the prior year, drawing attention to management’s current capital allocation priorities.
• With management announcing a much lower quarterly dividend, we’ll assess what this means for Nomura’s investment narrative and future cash flow expectations.

We've found 17 US stocks that are forecast to pay a dividend yield of over 6% next year. See the full list for free.

Nomura Real Estate Holdings Investment Narrative Recap

To own shares in Nomura Real Estate Holdings, investors need to believe the company can capitalize on Tokyo’s dense urban markets, maintain resilient property demand, and deliver reliable earnings amid shifting demographics. The recent dividend cut does not materially affect near-term catalysts, which remain tied to robust project pipelines in core metropolitan areas, but it does put a spotlight on Nomura’s largest risk, sustained demographic headwinds influencing long-term demand and asset values.

The most relevant recent announcement is the sharp reduction in the Q2 2026 dividend to ¥18.00 per share from ¥82.50 a year ago. This move signals tighter capital preservation, which may influence short-term investor sentiment, but the primary business drivers still hinge on project execution and occupancy stability in Tokyo’s prime locations.

Yet, for those watching closely, there is a contrasting aspect to consider as the impact of Japan’s aging and shrinking population could …

Read the full narrative on Nomura Real Estate Holdings (it's free!)

Nomura Real Estate Holdings is projected to generate ¥979.2 billion in revenue and ¥93.0 billion in earnings by 2028. This outlook assumes annual revenue growth of 8.0% and a ¥19.4 billion increase in earnings from the current level of ¥73.6 billion.

Uncover how Nomura Real Estate Holdings' forecasts yield a ¥1005 fair value, a 15% upside to its current price.

Exploring Other Perspectives

Two members of the Simply Wall St Community valued Nomura between ¥534.94 and ¥1,004.89 per share, reflecting wide-ranging outlooks. While many focus on recurring project pipelines, you should also compare these opinions with ongoing demographic risks and consider several alternative viewpoints before making a decision.

Explore 2 other fair value estimates on Nomura Real Estate Holdings - why the stock might be worth 39% less than the current price!

Build Your Own Nomura Real Estate Holdings Narrative

Disagree with existing narratives? Create your own in under 3 minutes - extraordinary investment returns rarely come from following the herd.

• A great starting point for your Nomura Real Estate Holdings research is our analysis highlighting 2 key rewards and 2 important warning signs that could impact your investment decision.
• Our free Nomura Real Estate Holdings research report provides a comprehensive fundamental analysis summarized in a single visual - the Snowflake - making it easy to evaluate Nomura Real Estate Holdings' overall financial health at a glance.

Want Some Alternatives?

Don't miss your shot at the next 10-bagger. Our latest stock picks just dropped:

• Outshine the giants: these 25 early-stage AI stocks could fund your retirement.
• Rare earth metals are the new gold rush. Find out which 36 stocks are leading the charge.
• Uncover the next big thing with financially sound penny stocks that balance risk and reward.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team@simplywallst.com