Nomura Real Estate Holdings (TSE:3231): Assessing Valuation Following Earnings, New Guidance, and Dividend Announcement

Nomura Real Estate Holdings (TSE:3231) drew market attention after a busy day of announcements. The company held its Q2 2026 earnings call, released updated earnings guidance for the full year, and declared a second quarter dividend.

See our latest analysis for Nomura Real Estate Holdings.

Following a series of fundamental updates, Nomura Real Estate Holdings continues to build on positive momentum, with a 12.7% share price return year to date and a robust 22.4% total shareholder return over 12 months. Longer-term investors have also seen strong gains, as the total return has climbed 171% over five years, highlighting both consistent performance and renewed confidence in the company’s outlook.

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With such impressive returns and an optimistic guidance in place, investors may be wondering if Nomura Real Estate Holdings is still undervalued or if the market has already factored in all the company’s future growth potential.

Most Popular Narrative: 10.8% Undervalued

The most closely watched narrative values Nomura Real Estate Holdings meaningfully higher than its last close, pointing to fresh upside. The difference hinges on a forward-looking growth story and sector shifts investors cannot afford to overlook.

The company has secured a multi-year land bank for housing sales, with a significant focus on the Tokyo 23 wards. This positions it to capitalize on continued urban concentration and population growth in key metropolitan areas, an advantage likely to support robust future revenues and stable occupancy rates. Strategic investments in senior housing and healthcare-oriented real estate, as part of both property sales and rental assets, are aligned with the rising demand from Japan's aging population. This enables recurring income streams and margin resilience.

Read the complete narrative.

Want to know the real drivers behind that bullish fair value? This narrative factors in future growth assumptions, premium asset strategies, and a sector pivot you might not expect. Click through to see which forecasts put Nomura’s future price in analyst crosshairs.

Result: Fair Value of ¥1,004.89 (UNDERVALUED)

Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts.

However, there are still risks, such as Japan's aging demographics and Nomura's heavy focus on Tokyo. These factors could challenge this optimistic outlook.

Find out about the key risks to this Nomura Real Estate Holdings narrative.

Another View: SWS DCF Model Suggests Overvaluation

While analysts see room for upside, the SWS DCF model tells a very different story for Nomura Real Estate Holdings. According to this method, the company is trading well above its fair value estimate of ¥534.21. This suggests shares may actually be overvalued at current prices. Could this hidden risk change the case for long-term investors?

Look into how the SWS DCF model arrives at its fair value.

Simply Wall St performs a discounted cash flow (DCF) on every stock in the world every day (check out Nomura Real Estate Holdings for example). We show the entire calculation in full. You can track the result in your watchlist or portfolio and be alerted when this changes, or use our stock screener to discover 876 undervalued stocks based on their cash flows. If you save a screener we even alert you when new companies match - so you never miss a potential opportunity.

Build Your Own Nomura Real Estate Holdings Narrative

If you have a different perspective or want to dig into the details on your own, you can quickly craft a personal view using all the available data, so why not Do it your way

A great starting point for your Nomura Real Estate Holdings research is our analysis highlighting 2 key rewards and 2 important warning signs that could impact your investment decision.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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