MediciNova, Inc.

TSE:4875 Stock Report

Market Cap: JP¥14.0b

MediciNova Valuation

Is 4875 undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

2/6

Valuation Score 2/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Book vs Peers

  • Price-To-Book vs Industry

  • Price-To-Book vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of 4875 when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: Insufficient data to calculate 4875's fair value for valuation analysis.

Significantly Below Fair Value: Insufficient data to calculate 4875's fair value for valuation analysis.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for 4875?

Key metric: As 4875 is unprofitable and pre-revenue we use its Price-To-Book Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Book ratio for 4875. This is calculated by dividing 4875's market cap by their current book value.
What is 4875's PB Ratio?
PB Ratio1.7x
BookUS$55.07m
Market CapUS$91.72m

Price to Book Ratio vs Peers

How does 4875's PB Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PB ratio for 4875 vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PBEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average3.7x
4588 Oncolys BioPharma
8.1xn/aJP¥15.8b
4883 Modalis Therapeutics
2.7xn/aJP¥6.9b
4884 Kringle Pharma
2.9xn/aJP¥5.6b
4591 Ribomic
1.2xn/aJP¥3.8b
4875 MediciNova
1.7x-11.9%JP¥91.7m

Price-To-Book vs Peers: 4875 is good value based on its Price-To-Book Ratio (1.7x) compared to the peer average (3.7x).

Price to Book Ratio vs Industry

How does 4875's PB Ratio compare vs other companies in the JP Biotechs Industry?

1 CompanyPrice / BookEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
2342 Transgenic Group
0.5xn/aUS$20.25m
No more companies available in this PB range
4875 1.7xIndustry Avg. 3.9xNo. of Companies4PB02.44.87.29.612+
1 CompanyEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No more companies

Price-To-Book vs Industry: 4875 is good value based on its Price-To-Book Ratio (1.7x) compared to the JP Biotechs industry average (3.8x).

Price to Book Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is 4875's PB Ratio compared to its Fair PB Ratio? This is the expected PB Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

4875 PB Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PB Ratio1.7x
Fair PB Ration/a

Price-To-Book vs Fair Ratio: Insufficient data to calculate 4875's Price-To-Book Fair Ratio for valuation analysis.

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst 4875 forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
CurrentJP¥286.00
JP¥1,260.12
+340.6%
20.4%JP¥1,512.15JP¥907.29n/a3
Feb ’26JP¥305.00
JP¥1,260.12
+313.2%
20.4%JP¥1,512.15JP¥907.29n/a3
Jan ’26JP¥334.00
JP¥1,260.12
+277.3%
20.4%JP¥1,512.15JP¥907.29n/a3
Dec ’25JP¥294.00
JP¥1,233.17
+319.4%
25.0%JP¥1,541.46JP¥924.88n/a2
Nov ’25JP¥252.00
JP¥1,149.80
+356.3%
25.0%JP¥1,437.25JP¥862.35n/a2
Oct ’25JP¥302.00
JP¥1,149.80
+280.7%
25.0%JP¥1,437.25JP¥862.35n/a2
Aug ’25JP¥200.00
JP¥2,476.50
+1,138.2%
62.5%JP¥4,024.31JP¥928.69n/a2
Jul ’25JP¥231.00
JP¥2,476.50
+972.1%
62.5%JP¥4,024.31JP¥928.69n/a2
Jun ’25JP¥218.00
JP¥2,548.56
+1,069.1%
64.7%JP¥4,197.62JP¥899.49n/a2
May ’25JP¥205.00
JP¥2,548.56
+1,143.2%
64.7%JP¥4,197.62JP¥899.49n/a2
Apr ’25JP¥218.00
JP¥2,548.56
+1,069.1%
64.7%JP¥4,197.62JP¥899.49n/a2
Mar ’25JP¥196.00
JP¥2,548.56
+1,200.3%
64.7%JP¥4,197.62JP¥899.49n/a2
Feb ’25JP¥207.00
JP¥2,452.31
+1,084.7%
63.6%JP¥4,012.88JP¥891.75JP¥305.002
Jan ’25JP¥210.00
JP¥2,452.31
+1,067.8%
63.6%JP¥4,012.88JP¥891.75JP¥334.002
Dec ’24JP¥264.00
JP¥2,452.31
+828.9%
63.6%JP¥4,012.88JP¥891.75JP¥294.002
Nov ’24JP¥291.00
JP¥2,465.78
+747.3%
63.6%JP¥4,034.91JP¥896.65JP¥252.002
Oct ’24JP¥310.00
JP¥2,465.78
+695.4%
63.6%JP¥4,034.91JP¥896.65JP¥302.002
Sep ’24JP¥350.00
JP¥2,317.95
+562.3%
62.5%JP¥3,766.67JP¥869.23JP¥239.002
Jun ’24JP¥307.00
JP¥2,271.65
+640.0%
63.6%JP¥3,717.25JP¥826.06JP¥218.002
May ’24JP¥291.00
JP¥2,271.65
+680.6%
63.6%JP¥3,717.25JP¥826.06JP¥205.002
Apr ’24JP¥289.00
JP¥2,271.65
+686.0%
63.6%JP¥3,717.25JP¥826.06JP¥218.002
Mar ’24JP¥305.00
JP¥2,271.65
+644.8%
63.6%JP¥3,717.25JP¥826.06JP¥196.002
Feb ’24JP¥309.00
JP¥2,271.65
+635.2%
63.6%JP¥3,717.25JP¥826.06JP¥207.002
Analyst Price Target
Consensus Narrative from 3 Analysts
JP¥1.27k
Fair Value
77.6% undervalued intrinsic discount
3
Number of Analysts

Analyst Forecast: Target price is more than 20% higher than the current share price, but analysts are not within a statistically confident range of agreement.

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Company Analysis and Financial Data Status

DataLast Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis2025/02/10 07:50
End of Day Share Price 2025/02/10 00:00
Earnings2024/09/30
Annual Earnings2023/12/31

Data Sources

The data used in our company analysis is from S&P Global Market Intelligence LLC. The following data is used in our analysis model to generate this report. Data is normalised which can introduce a delay from the source being available.

PackageDataTimeframeExample US Source *
Company Financials10 years
  • Income statement
  • Cash flow statement
  • Balance sheet
Analyst Consensus Estimates+3 years
  • Forecast financials
  • Analyst price targets
Market Prices30 years
  • Stock prices
  • Dividends, Splits and Actions
Ownership10 years
  • Top shareholders
  • Insider trading
Management10 years
  • Leadership team
  • Board of directors
Key Developments10 years
  • Company announcements

* Example for US securities, for non-US equivalent regulatory forms and sources are used.

Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more.

Analysis Model and Snowflake

Details of the analysis model used to generate this report is available on our Github page, we also have guides on how to use our reports and tutorials on Youtube.

Learn about the world class team who designed and built the Simply Wall St analysis model.

Industry and Sector Metrics

Our industry and section metrics are calculated every 6 hours by Simply Wall St, details of our process are available on Github.

Analyst Sources

MediciNova, Inc. is covered by 10 analysts. 2 of those analysts submitted the estimates of revenue or earnings used as inputs to our report. Analysts submissions are updated throughout the day.

AnalystInstitution
David BuckB. Riley Securities, Inc.
Yen Ting ChenCredit Suisse
Jason KolbertD. Boral Capital LLC.