Tsumura & Co. Beat Analyst Estimates: See What The Consensus Is Forecasting For This Year

It's been a good week for Tsumura & Co. (TSE:4540) shareholders, because the company has just released its latest half-year results, and the shares gained 9.9% to JP¥3,904. Revenues were JP¥47b, approximately in line with expectations, although statutory earnings per share (EPS) performed substantially better. EPS of JP¥108 were also better than expected, beating analyst predictions by 19%. Earnings are an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance, look at what the analysts are forecasting for next year, and see if there's been a change in sentiment towards the company. So we gathered the latest post-earnings forecasts to see what estimates suggest is in store for next year.

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Taking into account the latest results, the consensus forecast from Tsumura's five analysts is for revenues of JP¥199.4b in 2026. This reflects a meaningful 9.6% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are expected to decrease 7.6% to JP¥339 in the same period. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been anticipated revenues of JP¥189.1b and earnings per share (EPS) of JP¥335 in 2026. So it looks like there's been no major change in sentiment following the latest results, although the analysts have made a modest lift to to revenue forecasts.

See our latest analysis for Tsumura

Even though revenue forecasts increased, there was no change to the consensus price target of JP¥4,222, suggesting the analysts are focused on earnings as the driver of value creation. That's not the only conclusion we can draw from this data however, as some investors also like to consider the spread in estimates when evaluating analyst price targets. There are some variant perceptions on Tsumura, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at JP¥5,630 and the most bearish at JP¥3,300 per share. There are definitely some different views on the stock, but the range of estimates is not wide enough as to imply that the situation is unforecastable, in our view.

Taking a look at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can understand these forecasts is to see how they compare to both past performance and industry growth estimates. It's clear from the latest estimates that Tsumura's rate of growth is expected to accelerate meaningfully, with the forecast 20% annualised revenue growth to the end of 2026 noticeably faster than its historical growth of 7.9% p.a. over the past five years. Compare this with other companies in the same industry, which are forecast to grow their revenue 3.8% annually. Factoring in the forecast acceleration in revenue, it's pretty clear that Tsumura is expected to grow much faster than its industry.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that there's been no major change in sentiment, with the analysts reconfirming that the business is performing in line with their previous earnings per share estimates. Happily, they also upgraded their revenue estimates, and are forecasting them to grow faster than the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.

Keeping that in mind, we still think that the longer term trajectory of the business is much more important for investors to consider. We have estimates - from multiple Tsumura analysts - going out to 2028, and you can see them free on our platform here.

That said, it's still necessary to consider the ever-present spectre of investment risk. We've identified 1 warning sign with Tsumura , and understanding this should be part of your investment process.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.