Ono Pharmaceutical Co., Ltd. (TSE:4528) First-Quarter Results Just Came Out: Here's What Analysts Are Forecasting For This Year

Last week, you might have seen that Ono Pharmaceutical Co., Ltd. (TSE:4528) released its quarterly result to the market. The early response was not positive, with shares down 5.0% to JP¥2,150 in the past week. It was a pretty mixed result, with revenues beating expectations to hit JP¥118b. Statutory earnings fell 3.9% short of analyst forecasts, reaching JP¥52.79 per share. Following the result, the analysts have updated their earnings model, and it would be good to know whether they think there's been a strong change in the company's prospects, or if it's business as usual. We thought readers would find it interesting to see the analysts latest (statutory) post-earnings forecasts for next year.

See our latest analysis for Ono Pharmaceutical

Taking into account the latest results, the current consensus, from the ten analysts covering Ono Pharmaceutical, is for revenues of JP¥479.0b in 2025. This implies a noticeable 4.3% reduction in Ono Pharmaceutical's revenue over the past 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are forecast to plunge 34% to JP¥171 in the same period. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of JP¥478.6b and earnings per share (EPS) of JP¥168 in 2025. So it's pretty clear that, although the analysts have updated their estimates, there's been no major change in expectations for the business following the latest results.

The analysts reconfirmed their price target of JP¥2,306, showing that the business is executing well and in line with expectations. It could also be instructive to look at the range of analyst estimates, to evaluate how different the outlier opinions are from the mean. The most optimistic Ono Pharmaceutical analyst has a price target of JP¥4,370 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at JP¥1,800. We would probably assign less value to the analyst forecasts in this situation, because such a wide range of estimates could imply that the future of this business is difficult to value accurately. With this in mind, we wouldn't rely too heavily the consensus price target, as it is just an average and analysts clearly have some deeply divergent views on the business.

These estimates are interesting, but it can be useful to paint some more broad strokes when seeing how forecasts compare, both to the Ono Pharmaceutical's past performance and to peers in the same industry. We would highlight that revenue is expected to reverse, with a forecast 5.7% annualised decline to the end of 2025. That is a notable change from historical growth of 14% over the last five years. Compare this with our data, which suggests that other companies in the same industry are, in aggregate, expected to see their revenue grow 4.9% per year. It's pretty clear that Ono Pharmaceutical's revenues are expected to perform substantially worse than the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that there's been no major change in sentiment, with the analysts reconfirming that the business is performing in line with their previous earnings per share estimates. On the plus side, there were no major changes to revenue estimates; although forecasts imply they will perform worse than the wider industry. The consensus price target held steady at JP¥2,306, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.

Keeping that in mind, we still think that the longer term trajectory of the business is much more important for investors to consider. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for Ono Pharmaceutical going out to 2027, and you can see them free on our platform here..

However, before you get too enthused, we've discovered 1 warning sign for Ono Pharmaceutical that you should be aware of.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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