Astellas Pharma Inc.

TSE:4503 Stock Report

Market Cap: JP¥2.8t

Astellas Pharma Valuation

Is 4503 undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

3/6

Valuation Score 3/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Peers

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Industry

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of 4503 when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: 4503 (¥1562) is trading below our estimate of fair value (¥4692.05)

Significantly Below Fair Value: 4503 is trading below fair value by more than 20%.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for 4503?

Key metric: As 4503 is profitable we use its Price-To-Earnings Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Earnings ratio for 4503. This is calculated by dividing 4503's market cap by their current earnings.
What is 4503's PE Ratio?
PE Ratio51.1x
EarningsJP¥54.75b
Market CapJP¥2.80t

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does 4503's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for 4503 vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PEEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average20.3x
4507 Shionogi
11.5x-0.3%JP¥1.8t
4578 Otsuka Holdings
31.7x11.6%JP¥4.8t
4151 Kyowa Kirin
15.4x6.1%JP¥1.3t
4502 Takeda Pharmaceutical
22.5x11.9%JP¥6.5t
4503 Astellas Pharma
51.1x25.5%JP¥2.8t

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: 4503 is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (51.1x) compared to the peer average (20.3x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does 4503's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the JP Pharmaceuticals Industry?

0 CompaniesPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No more companies available in this PE range
4503 51.1xIndustry Avg. 15.0xNo. of Companies5PE01020304050+
0 CompaniesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: 4503 is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (51.1x) compared to the JP Pharmaceuticals industry average (15x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is 4503's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

4503 PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio51.1x
Fair PE Ratio34.4x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: 4503 is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (51.1x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (34.4x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst 4503 forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
CurrentJP¥1,562.00
JP¥1,966.88
+25.9%
12.0%JP¥2,400.00JP¥1,400.00n/a16
Nov ’25JP¥1,781.50
JP¥1,960.63
+10.1%
10.7%JP¥2,200.00JP¥1,400.00n/a16
Oct ’25JP¥1,676.50
JP¥1,950.00
+16.3%
11.9%JP¥2,300.00JP¥1,400.00n/a16
Sep ’25JP¥1,817.00
JP¥1,912.00
+5.2%
13.1%JP¥2,300.00JP¥1,400.00n/a15
Aug ’25JP¥1,714.00
JP¥1,825.33
+6.5%
14.4%JP¥2,300.00JP¥1,200.00n/a15
Jul ’25JP¥1,588.50
JP¥1,855.33
+16.8%
15.4%JP¥2,300.00JP¥1,200.00n/a15
Jun ’25JP¥1,548.50
JP¥1,965.63
+26.9%
21.2%JP¥3,170.00JP¥1,200.00n/a16
May ’25JP¥1,525.00
JP¥2,025.00
+32.8%
20.5%JP¥3,170.00JP¥1,200.00n/a16
Apr ’25JP¥1,641.00
JP¥2,142.00
+30.5%
20.5%JP¥3,170.00JP¥1,500.00n/a15
Mar ’25JP¥1,674.50
JP¥2,252.00
+34.5%
24.2%JP¥3,500.00JP¥1,500.00n/a15
Feb ’25JP¥1,692.00
JP¥2,419.33
+43.0%
23.2%JP¥3,500.00JP¥1,500.00n/a15
Jan ’25JP¥1,686.00
JP¥2,470.00
+46.5%
22.7%JP¥3,500.00JP¥1,500.00n/a15
Dec ’24JP¥1,806.50
JP¥2,603.33
+44.1%
19.5%JP¥3,900.00JP¥1,900.00n/a15
Nov ’24JP¥1,944.00
JP¥2,683.33
+38.0%
18.8%JP¥3,900.00JP¥2,000.00JP¥1,781.5015
Oct ’24JP¥2,074.00
JP¥2,725.00
+31.4%
18.6%JP¥3,800.00JP¥2,000.00JP¥1,676.5014
Sep ’24JP¥2,200.00
JP¥2,740.00
+24.5%
19.8%JP¥3,800.00JP¥2,000.00JP¥1,817.0015
Aug ’24JP¥2,130.50
JP¥2,733.33
+28.3%
20.2%JP¥3,800.00JP¥1,900.00JP¥1,714.0015
Jul ’24JP¥2,149.00
JP¥2,775.00
+29.1%
18.9%JP¥3,750.00JP¥2,100.00JP¥1,588.5014
Jun ’24JP¥2,236.00
JP¥2,753.57
+23.1%
19.7%JP¥3,750.00JP¥2,100.00JP¥1,548.5014
May ’24JP¥2,093.00
JP¥2,775.00
+32.6%
18.5%JP¥3,600.00JP¥2,200.00JP¥1,525.0012
Apr ’24JP¥1,883.00
JP¥2,592.31
+37.7%
19.8%JP¥3,600.00JP¥1,900.00JP¥1,641.0013
Mar ’24JP¥1,911.00
JP¥2,600.00
+36.1%
21.2%JP¥3,800.00JP¥1,900.00JP¥1,674.5013
Feb ’24JP¥1,902.00
JP¥2,626.92
+38.1%
20.0%JP¥3,800.00JP¥2,000.00JP¥1,692.0013
Jan ’24JP¥2,006.50
JP¥2,615.38
+30.3%
18.1%JP¥3,800.00JP¥2,000.00JP¥1,686.0013
Dec ’23JP¥2,127.00
JP¥2,592.31
+21.9%
17.5%JP¥3,700.00JP¥2,000.00JP¥1,806.5013
Nov ’23JP¥2,090.50
JP¥2,596.15
+24.2%
17.6%JP¥3,700.00JP¥2,000.00JP¥1,944.0013

Analyst Forecast: Target price is more than 20% higher than the current share price and analysts are within a statistically confident range of agreement.

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