Astellas Pharma Inc. (TSE:4503) Just Released Its Half-Yearly Earnings: Here's What Analysts Think

A week ago, Astellas Pharma Inc. (TSE:4503) came out with a strong set of interim numbers that could potentially lead to a re-rate of the stock. Results were good overall, with revenues beating analyst predictions by 2.1% to hit JP¥936b. Statutory earnings per share (EPS) came in at JP¥41.06, some 4.2% above whatthe analysts had expected. Earnings are an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance, look at what the analysts are forecasting for next year, and see if there's been a change in sentiment towards the company. So we collected the latest post-earnings statutory consensus estimates to see what could be in store for next year.

See our latest analysis for Astellas Pharma

Following last week's earnings report, Astellas Pharma's 15 analysts are forecasting 2025 revenues to be JP¥1.75t, approximately in line with the last 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are forecast to fall 16% to JP¥25.54 in the same period. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been anticipated revenues of JP¥1.75t and earnings per share (EPS) of JP¥48.85 in 2025. So there's definitely been a decline in sentiment after the latest results, noting the pretty serious reduction to new EPS forecasts.

The consensus price target held steady at JP¥1,961, with the analysts seemingly voting that their lower forecast earnings are not expected to lead to a lower stock price in the foreseeable future. The consensus price target is just an average of individual analyst targets, so - it could be handy to see how wide the range of underlying estimates is. Currently, the most bullish analyst values Astellas Pharma at JP¥2,200 per share, while the most bearish prices it at JP¥1,400. As you can see, analysts are not all in agreement on the stock's future, but the range of estimates is still reasonably narrow, which could suggest that the outcome is not totally unpredictable.

One way to get more context on these forecasts is to look at how they compare to both past performance, and how other companies in the same industry are performing. We would highlight that revenue is expected to reverse, with a forecast 2.5% annualised decline to the end of 2025. That is a notable change from historical growth of 6.5% over the last five years. Compare this with our data, which suggests that other companies in the same industry are, in aggregate, expected to see their revenue grow 4.8% per year. It's pretty clear that Astellas Pharma's revenues are expected to perform substantially worse than the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The biggest concern is that the analysts reduced their earnings per share estimates, suggesting business headwinds could lay ahead for Astellas Pharma. On the plus side, there were no major changes to revenue estimates; although forecasts imply they will perform worse than the wider industry. The consensus price target held steady at JP¥1,961, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.

Keeping that in mind, we still think that the longer term trajectory of the business is much more important for investors to consider. We have estimates - from multiple Astellas Pharma analysts - going out to 2027, and you can see them free on our platform here.

We don't want to rain on the parade too much, but we did also find 3 warning signs for Astellas Pharma (1 makes us a bit uncomfortable!) that you need to be mindful of.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.