Toho Co., Ltd. (TSE:9602) First-Quarter Results Just Came Out: Here's What Analysts Are Forecasting For This Year

Shareholders of Toho Co., Ltd. (TSE:9602) will be pleased this week, given that the stock price is up 16% to JP¥5,211 following its latest first-quarter results. It was a workmanlike result, with revenues of JP¥86b coming in 3.1% ahead of expectations, and statutory earnings per share of JP¥260, in line with analyst appraisals. Following the result, the analysts have updated their earnings model, and it would be good to know whether they think there's been a strong change in the company's prospects, or if it's business as usual. We thought readers would find it interesting to see the analysts latest (statutory) post-earnings forecasts for next year.

View our latest analysis for Toho

Following the recent earnings report, the consensus from eight analysts covering Toho is for revenues of JP¥286.6b in 2025. This implies a perceptible 2.9% decline in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are expected to sink 20% to JP¥231 in the same period. Before this earnings report, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of JP¥286.9b and earnings per share (EPS) of JP¥234 in 2025. So it's pretty clear that, although the analysts have updated their estimates, there's been no major change in expectations for the business following the latest results.

The analysts reconfirmed their price target of JP¥6,271, showing that the business is executing well and in line with expectations. There's another way to think about price targets though, and that's to look at the range of price targets put forward by analysts, because a wide range of estimates could suggest a diverse view on possible outcomes for the business. The most optimistic Toho analyst has a price target of JP¥7,600 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at JP¥5,500. As you can see, analysts are not all in agreement on the stock's future, but the range of estimates is still reasonably narrow, which could suggest that the outcome is not totally unpredictable.

Taking a look at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can understand these forecasts is to see how they compare to both past performance and industry growth estimates. We would highlight that revenue is expected to reverse, with a forecast 3.9% annualised decline to the end of 2025. That is a notable change from historical growth of 3.3% over the last five years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in the same industry are forecast to see their revenue grow 5.5% annually for the foreseeable future. It's pretty clear that Toho's revenues are expected to perform substantially worse than the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that there's been no major change in sentiment, with the analysts reconfirming that the business is performing in line with their previous earnings per share estimates. Fortunately, the analysts also reconfirmed their revenue estimates, suggesting that it's tracking in line with expectations. Although our data does suggest that Toho's revenue is expected to perform worse than the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.

With that said, the long-term trajectory of the company's earnings is a lot more important than next year. We have estimates - from multiple Toho analysts - going out to 2027, and you can see them free on our platform here.

You can also see our analysis of Toho's Board and CEO remuneration and experience, and whether company insiders have been buying stock.

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team@simplywallst.com