Stock Analysis

CyberAgent, Inc. Just Beat Earnings Expectations: Here's What Analysts Think Will Happen Next

TSE:4751

Last week, you might have seen that CyberAgent, Inc. (TSE:4751) released its quarterly result to the market. The early response was not positive, with shares down 3.2% to JP¥915 in the past week. It looks like a credible result overall - although revenues of JP¥190b were what the analysts expected, CyberAgent surprised by delivering a (statutory) profit of JP¥11.78 per share, an impressive 178% above what was forecast. The analysts typically update their forecasts at each earnings report, and we can judge from their estimates whether their view of the company has changed or if there are any new concerns to be aware of. So we gathered the latest post-earnings forecasts to see what estimates suggest is in store for next year.

See our latest analysis for CyberAgent

TSE:4751 Earnings and Revenue Growth August 3rd 2024

Taking into account the latest results, the current consensus from CyberAgent's 16 analysts is for revenues of JP¥844.6b in 2025. This would reflect a modest 7.8% increase on its revenue over the past 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are predicted to surge 28% to JP¥44.24. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of JP¥843.8b and earnings per share (EPS) of JP¥43.82 in 2025. The consensus analysts don't seem to have seen anything in these results that would have changed their view on the business, given there's been no major change to their estimates.

It will come as no surprise then, to learn that the consensus price target is largely unchanged at JP¥1,163. It could also be instructive to look at the range of analyst estimates, to evaluate how different the outlier opinions are from the mean. The most optimistic CyberAgent analyst has a price target of JP¥1,400 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at JP¥980. This shows there is still a bit of diversity in estimates, but analysts don't appear to be totally split on the stock as though it might be a success or failure situation.

Another way we can view these estimates is in the context of the bigger picture, such as how the forecasts stack up against past performance, and whether forecasts are more or less bullish relative to other companies in the industry. We would highlight that CyberAgent's revenue growth is expected to slow, with the forecast 6.2% annualised growth rate until the end of 2025 being well below the historical 12% p.a. growth over the last five years. Juxtapose this against the other companies in the industry with analyst coverage, which are forecast to grow their revenues (in aggregate) 4.1% per year. Even after the forecast slowdown in growth, it seems obvious that CyberAgent is also expected to grow faster than the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that there's been no major change in sentiment, with the analysts reconfirming that the business is performing in line with their previous earnings per share estimates. Fortunately, they also reconfirmed their revenue numbers, suggesting that it's tracking in line with expectations. Additionally, our data suggests that revenue is expected to grow faster than the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.

With that said, the long-term trajectory of the company's earnings is a lot more important than next year. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for CyberAgent going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here..

You can also see our analysis of CyberAgent's Board and CEO remuneration and experience, and whether company insiders have been buying stock.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.