Major Estimate Revision • May 21
Consensus revenue estimates increase by 29% The consensus outlook for revenues in fiscal year 2027 has improved. 2027 revenue forecast increased from JP¥25.9b to JP¥33.4b. EPS estimate increased from JP¥347 to JP¥499 per share. Net income forecast to grow 27% next year vs 1.7% growth forecast for Entertainment industry in Japan. Consensus price target of JP¥3,390 unchanged from last update. Share price rose 14% to JP¥3,350 over the past week. Announcement • May 15
Akatsuki Inc. (TSE:3932) announces an Equity Buyback for 2,600,000 shares, representing 17.99% for ¥7,051.2 million. Akatsuki Inc. (TSE:3932) announces a share repurchase program. Under the program, the company will repurchase 2,600,000 shares, representing 17.99% of its share capital, for ¥7,051.2 million. The shares will be repurchased at ¥2,712 per share. The program is aimed at improving capital efficiency and to implementing agile capital policies in accordance with changes in the business environment. The company plans to use borrowing funds to repurchase its shares. As of March 31, 2026, the company had 14,454,425 shares outstanding (excluding treasury shares) and 65,375 shares in treasury. Announcement • May 13
Akatsuki Inc., Annual General Meeting, Jun 25, 2026 Akatsuki Inc., Annual General Meeting, Jun 25, 2026. Announcement • May 09
Akatsuki Inc. to Report Fiscal Year 2026 Results on May 13, 2026 Akatsuki Inc. announced that they will report fiscal year 2026 results on May 13, 2026 Announcement • Apr 01
KAIJU NO. 8 THE GAME, Co-Produced by Akatsuki Games, Toho, and Production I.G, Announce the Release of Main Story Chapter 10 KAIJU NO. 8 THE GAME, co-produced by Akatsuki Games, TOHO, and Production I.G, announced the release of Main Story Chapter 10: "Aptitude Test." This latest chapter shifts the spotlight to the Japan Defense Force's rising stars as they compete for the top spot for the new anti-Dimensional Kaiju CLOZER suit. The update marks the debut of ?5 [Calculated Choice] Haruichi Izumo, the game's first bow user. To celebrate the release, players can earn up to 1,500 Dimensional Crystals and other rewards through gameplay and score-based challenges. Upcoming Dividend • Mar 23
Upcoming dividend of JP¥55.00 per share Eligible shareholders must have bought the stock before 30 March 2026. Payment date: 26 June 2026. Payout ratio is a comfortable 42% but the company is paying out more than the cash it is generating. Trailing yield: 3.8%. Within top quartile of Japanese dividend payers (3.6%). Higher than average of industry peers (1.7%). Declared Dividend • Mar 08
Dividend of JP¥55.00 announced Shareholders will receive a dividend of JP¥55.00. Ex-date: 30th March 2026 Payment date: 26th June 2026 Dividend yield will be 3.6%, which is higher than the industry average of 1.8%. Sustainability & Growth Dividend is covered by earnings (21% earnings payout ratio) but not covered by cash flows (100% cash payout ratio). The dividend has increased by an average of 35% per year over the past 8 years and payments have been stable during that time. EPS is expected to grow by 33% over the next 2 years, which should provide support to the dividend and adequate earnings cover. Major Estimate Revision • Feb 18
Consensus revenue estimates increase by 16% The consensus outlook for revenues in fiscal year 2026 has improved. 2026 revenue forecast increased from JP¥21.6b to JP¥25.0b. EPS estimate increased from JP¥210 to JP¥291 per share. Net income forecast to grow 27% next year vs 13% growth forecast for Entertainment industry in Japan. Consensus price target of JP¥3,560 unchanged from last update. Share price rose 11% to JP¥3,045 over the past week. Reported Earnings • Feb 10
Third quarter 2026 earnings released: EPS: JP¥69.55 (vs JP¥46.67 loss in 3Q 2025) Third quarter 2026 results: EPS: JP¥69.55 (up from JP¥46.67 loss in 3Q 2025). Revenue: JP¥6.58b (up 79% from 3Q 2025). Net income: JP¥1.00b (up JP¥1.68b from 3Q 2025). Profit margin: 15% (up from net loss in 3Q 2025). The move to profitability was driven by higher revenue. Revenue is forecast to grow 6.9% p.a. on average during the next 3 years, compared to a 6.6% growth forecast for the Entertainment industry in Japan. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has increased by 14% per year but the company’s share price has only increased by 9% per year, which means it is significantly lagging earnings growth. Price Target Changed • Jan 23
Price target increased by 8.5% to JP¥3,560 Up from JP¥3,280, the current price target is provided by 1 analyst. New target price is 34% above last closing price of JP¥2,665. Stock is down 7.2% over the past year. The company is forecast to post earnings per share of JP¥210 for next year compared to JP¥114 last year. Announcement • Nov 29
Akatsuki Inc. to Report Q3, 2026 Results on Feb 09, 2026 Akatsuki Inc. announced that they will report Q3, 2026 results on Feb 09, 2026 Major Estimate Revision • Nov 22
Consensus EPS estimates increase by 19% The consensus outlook for fiscal year 2026 has been updated. 2026 EPS estimate increased from JP¥154 to JP¥184. Revenue forecast unchanged at JP¥22.0b. Net income forecast to grow 42% next year vs 5.5% growth forecast for Entertainment industry in Japan. Consensus price target of JP¥3,280 unchanged from last update. Share price was steady at JP¥2,620 over the past week. Reported Earnings • Nov 15
Second quarter 2026 earnings released: EPS: JP¥209 (vs JP¥117 in 2Q 2025) Second quarter 2026 results: EPS: JP¥209 (up from JP¥117 in 2Q 2025). Revenue: JP¥7.60b (down 9.0% from 2Q 2025). Net income: JP¥3.02b (up 80% from 2Q 2025). Profit margin: 40% (up from 20% in 2Q 2025). Revenue is forecast to grow 9.7% p.a. on average during the next 3 years, compared to a 8.6% growth forecast for the Entertainment industry in Japan. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has fallen by 30% per year but the company’s share price has increased by 6% per year, which means it is well ahead of earnings. Buy Or Sell Opportunity • Nov 12
Now 20% overvalued Over the last 90 days, the stock has fallen 6.7% to JP¥2,710. The fair value is estimated to be JP¥2,251, however this is not to be taken as a sell recommendation but rather should be used as a guide only. Revenue has declined by 4.1% over the last 3 years. Earnings per share has declined by 53%. Revenue is forecast to grow by 15% in 2 years. Earnings are forecast to grow by 298% in the next 2 years. Major Estimate Revision • Oct 10
Consensus EPS estimates increase by 11% The consensus outlook for earnings per share (EPS) in fiscal year 2026 has improved. 2026 revenue forecast increased from JP¥22.0b to JP¥22.3b. EPS estimate increased from JP¥139 to JP¥154 per share. Net income forecast to grow 216% next year vs 35% growth forecast for Entertainment industry in Japan. Consensus price target of JP¥3,280 unchanged from last update. Share price was steady at JP¥2,671 over the past week. Upcoming Dividend • Sep 22
Upcoming dividend of JP¥55.00 per share Eligible shareholders must have bought the stock before 29 September 2025. Payment date: 08 December 2025. The company is paying out more than 100% of its profits but is generating plenty of cash to support the dividend. Trailing yield: 3.9%. Within top quartile of Japanese dividend payers (3.6%). Higher than average of industry peers (1.1%). Major Estimate Revision • Sep 12
Consensus revenue estimates fall by 20% The consensus outlook for revenues in fiscal year 2026 has deteriorated. 2026 revenue forecast decreased from JP¥27.7b to JP¥22.0b. EPS estimate fell from JP¥281 to JP¥139 per share. Net income forecast to grow 228% next year vs 29% growth forecast for Entertainment industry in Japan. Consensus price target of JP¥3,280 unchanged from last update. Share price was steady at JP¥2,910 over the past week. Announcement • Sep 01
Akatsuki Inc. to Report Q2, 2026 Results on Nov 12, 2025 Akatsuki Inc. announced that they will report Q2, 2026 results on Nov 12, 2025 New Risk • Aug 09
New minor risk - Profit margin trend The company's profit margins are lower than last year and have reduced by more than 30%. Net profit margin: 3.4% Last year net profit margin: 7.0% This is considered a minor risk. A large drop in profit margin could indicate the company does not have strong competitive advantages or it is yet to establish itself and its core business. Even if it is a well established business, this may make it a much riskier investment than one that has a combination of proven competitive advantages and a stable or growing profit margin. Currently, the following risks have been identified for the company: Minor Risks Dividend is not well covered by earnings (183% payout ratio). Profit margins are more than 30% lower than last year (3.4% net profit margin). Reported Earnings • Aug 09
First quarter 2026 earnings released: JP¥80.93 loss per share (vs JP¥18.79 loss in 1Q 2025) First quarter 2026 results: JP¥80.93 loss per share (further deteriorated from JP¥18.79 loss in 1Q 2025). Revenue: JP¥2.31b (down 44% from 1Q 2025). Net loss: JP¥1.17b (loss widened 331% from 1Q 2025). Revenue is forecast to grow 13% p.a. on average during the next 3 years, compared to a 8.9% growth forecast for the Entertainment industry in Japan. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has fallen by 53% per year but the company’s share price has increased by 9% per year, which means it is well ahead of earnings. Declared Dividend • Jul 21
Final dividend of JP¥55.00 announced Shareholders will receive a dividend of JP¥55.00. Ex-date: 29th September 2025 Payment date: 8th December 2025 Dividend yield will be 3.7%, which is higher than the industry average of 1.8%. Sustainability & Growth Dividend is covered by both earnings (83% earnings payout ratio) and cash flows (48% cash payout ratio). The dividend has increased by an average of 41% per year over the past 7 years and payments have been stable during that time. EPS is expected to grow by 120% over the next 3 years, which should provide support to the dividend and adequate earnings cover. Price Target Changed • Jun 10
Price target decreased by 11% to JP¥3,280 Down from JP¥3,680, the current price target is provided by 1 analyst. New target price is 10% above last closing price of JP¥2,980. Stock is up 38% over the past year. The company is forecast to post earnings per share of JP¥281 for next year compared to JP¥114 last year. Announcement • May 31
Akatsuki Inc. to Report Q1, 2026 Results on Aug 08, 2025 Akatsuki Inc. announced that they will report Q1, 2026 results on Aug 08, 2025 Major Estimate Revision • May 21
Consensus revenue estimates decrease by 14% The consensus outlook for fiscal year 2026 has been updated. 2026 revenue forecast fell from JP¥30.4b to JP¥26.2b. EPS estimate unchanged from JP¥229 per share at last update. Entertainment industry in Japan expected to see average net income growth of 21% next year. Consensus price target of JP¥3,470 unchanged from last update. Share price fell 2.2% to JP¥2,901 over the past week. New Risk • May 12
New minor risk - Share price stability The company's share price has been volatile over the past 3 months. It is more volatile than 75% of Japanese stocks, typically moving 7.4% a week. This is considered a minor risk. Share price volatility indicates the stock is highly sensitive to market conditions or economic conditions rather than being sensitive to its own business performance, which may also be inconsistent. It also increases the risk of potential losses in the short term as the stock tends to have larger drops in price more frequently than other stocks. This is currently the only risk that has been identified for the company. Buy Or Sell Opportunity • May 12
Now 25% undervalued The stock has been flat over the last 90 days, currently trading at JP¥3,105. The fair value is estimated to be JP¥4,114, however this is not to be taken as a buy recommendation but rather should be used as a guide only. Revenue has declined by 3.7% over the last 3 years. Earnings per share has declined by 57%. Revenue is forecast to grow by 39% in 2 years. Earnings are forecast to grow by 213% in the next 2 years. Reported Earnings • May 10
Full year 2025 earnings: EPS and revenues miss analyst expectations Full year 2025 results: EPS: JP¥114 (up from JP¥104 in FY 2024). Revenue: JP¥23.7b (down 1.3% from FY 2024). Net income: JP¥1.65b (up 28% from FY 2024). Profit margin: 7.0% (up from 5.4% in FY 2024). The increase in margin was driven by lower expenses. Revenue missed analyst estimates by 2.9%. Earnings per share (EPS) also missed analyst estimates by 46%. Revenue is forecast to grow 16% p.a. on average during the next 2 years, compared to a 11% growth forecast for the Entertainment industry in Japan. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has fallen by 57% per year but the company’s share price has increased by 6% per year, which means it is well ahead of earnings. Announcement • May 09
Akatsuki Inc., Annual General Meeting, Jun 25, 2025 Akatsuki Inc., Annual General Meeting, Jun 25, 2025. Buy Or Sell Opportunity • Apr 24
Now 21% undervalued Over the last 90 days, the stock has risen 14% to JP¥3,275. The fair value is estimated to be JP¥4,142, however this is not to be taken as a buy recommendation but rather should be used as a guide only. Revenue has declined by 4.1% over the last 3 years. Meanwhile, the company has become profitable. Revenue is forecast to grow by 39% in 2 years. Earnings are forecast to grow by 263% in the next 2 years. New Risk • Mar 24
New minor risk - Share price stability The company's share price has been volatile over the past 3 months. It is more volatile than 75% of Japanese stocks, typically moving 5.3% a week. This is considered a minor risk. Share price volatility indicates the stock is highly sensitive to market conditions or economic conditions rather than being sensitive to its own business performance, which may also be inconsistent. It also increases the risk of potential losses in the short term as the stock tends to have larger drops in price more frequently than other stocks. Currently, the following risks have been identified for the company: Minor Risks Share price has been volatile over the past 3 months (5.3% average weekly change). Shareholders have been diluted in the past year (25% increase in shares outstanding). Upcoming Dividend • Mar 21
Upcoming dividend of JP¥40.00 per share Eligible shareholders must have bought the stock before 28 March 2025. Payment date: 26 June 2025. Payout ratio is on the higher end at 85%, however this is supported by cash flows. Trailing yield: 2.7%. Lower than top quartile of Japanese dividend payers (3.7%). Higher than average of industry peers (1.2%). Major Estimate Revision • Mar 17
Consensus EPS estimates increase by 55% The consensus outlook for earnings per share (EPS) in fiscal year 2025 has improved. 2025 revenue forecast increased from JP¥23.5b to JP¥24.4b. EPS estimate increased from JP¥135 to JP¥210 per share. Net income forecast to grow 187% next year vs 13% growth forecast for Entertainment industry in Japan. Consensus price target down from JP¥3,680 to JP¥3,470. Share price was steady at JP¥2,788 over the past week. Declared Dividend • Mar 06
Dividend of JP¥40.00 announced Shareholders will receive a dividend of JP¥40.00. Ex-date: 28th March 2025 Payment date: 26th June 2025 Dividend yield will be 2.7%, which is higher than the industry average of 1.8%. Sustainability & Growth Dividend is covered by both earnings (85% earnings payout ratio) and cash flows (67% cash payout ratio). The dividend has increased by an average of 35% per year over the past 7 years and payments have been stable during that time. EPS is expected to grow by 152% over the next 2 years, which should provide support to the dividend and adequate earnings cover. Announcement • Mar 04
Akatsuki Inc. to Report Fiscal Year 2025 Results on May 09, 2025 Akatsuki Inc. announced that they will report fiscal year 2025 results at 3:00 PM, Tokyo Standard Time on May 09, 2025 Major Estimate Revision • Feb 19
Consensus EPS estimates fall by 37% The consensus outlook for earnings per share (EPS) in fiscal year 2025 has deteriorated. 2025 revenue forecast decreased from JP¥25.9b to JP¥23.5b. EPS estimate also fell from JP¥215 per share to JP¥135 per share. Net income forecast to grow 175% next year vs 11% growth forecast for Entertainment industry in Japan. Consensus price target of JP¥3,680 unchanged from last update. Share price fell 4.2% to JP¥2,980 over the past week. Reported Earnings • Feb 12
Third quarter 2025 earnings released: JP¥46.67 loss per share (vs JP¥38.00 loss in 3Q 2024) Third quarter 2025 results: JP¥46.67 loss per share (further deteriorated from JP¥38.00 loss in 3Q 2024). Revenue: JP¥3.68b (down 30% from 3Q 2024). Net loss: JP¥673.0m (loss widened 53% from 3Q 2024). Revenue is forecast to grow 17% p.a. on average during the next 3 years, compared to a 13% growth forecast for the Entertainment industry in Japan. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has fallen by 60% per year but the company’s share price has increased by 2% per year, which means it is well ahead of earnings. Major Estimate Revision • Dec 10
Consensus EPS estimates increase by 15% The consensus outlook for earnings per share (EPS) in fiscal year 2025 has improved. 2025 revenue forecast increased from JP¥25.5b to JP¥25.9b. EPS estimate increased from JP¥187 to JP¥215 per share. Net income forecast to grow 135% next year vs 47% growth forecast for Entertainment industry in Japan. Consensus price target up from JP¥3,470 to JP¥3,680. Share price rose 3.5% to JP¥2,552 over the past week. Announcement • Dec 03
Akatsuki Inc. to Report Q3, 2025 Results on Feb 10, 2025 Akatsuki Inc. announced that they will report Q3, 2025 results on Feb 10, 2025 New Risk • Nov 27
New minor risk - Share price stability The company's share price has been volatile over the past 3 months. It is more volatile than 75% of Japanese stocks, typically moving 5.4% a week. This is considered a minor risk. Share price volatility indicates the stock is highly sensitive to market conditions or economic conditions rather than being sensitive to its own business performance, which may also be inconsistent. It also increases the risk of potential losses in the short term as the stock tends to have larger drops in price more frequently than other stocks. Currently, the following risks have been identified for the company: Minor Risks Share price has been volatile over the past 3 months (5.4% average weekly change). Shareholders have been diluted in the past year (25% increase in shares outstanding). Major Estimate Revision • Nov 26
Consensus EPS estimates increase by 64% The consensus outlook for earnings per share (EPS) in fiscal year 2025 has improved. 2025 revenue forecast increased from JP¥24.9b to JP¥25.5b. EPS estimate increased from JP¥114 to JP¥187 per share. Net income forecast to grow 118% next year vs 29% growth forecast for Entertainment industry in Japan. Consensus price target of JP¥3,470 unchanged from last update. Share price rose 9.7% to JP¥2,425 over the past week. Reported Earnings • Nov 10
Second quarter 2025 earnings released: EPS: JP¥117 (vs JP¥158 in 2Q 2024) Second quarter 2025 results: EPS: JP¥117 (down from JP¥158 in 2Q 2024). Revenue: JP¥8.35b (up 5.0% from 2Q 2024). Net income: JP¥1.68b (down 7.7% from 2Q 2024). Profit margin: 20% (down from 23% in 2Q 2024). The decrease in margin was driven by higher expenses. Revenue is forecast to grow 11% p.a. on average during the next 3 years, compared to a 9.6% growth forecast for the Entertainment industry in Japan. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has fallen by 59% per year but the company’s share price has only fallen by 14% per year, which means it has not declined as severely as earnings. Price Target Changed • Oct 01
Price target increased by 9.8% to JP¥2,935 Up from JP¥2,673, the current price target is an average from 2 analysts. New target price is 42% above last closing price of JP¥2,065. Stock is down 1.4% over the past year. The company is forecast to post earnings per share of JP¥107 for next year compared to JP¥104 last year. Upcoming Dividend • Sep 20
Upcoming dividend of JP¥40.00 per share Eligible shareholders must have bought the stock before 27 September 2024. Payment date: 09 December 2024. Payout ratio is a comfortable 60% but the company is not cash flow positive. Trailing yield: 3.9%. Within top quartile of Japanese dividend payers (3.8%). Higher than average of industry peers (1.4%). Major Estimate Revision • Sep 18
Consensus EPS estimates fall by 82% The consensus outlook for earnings per share (EPS) in fiscal year 2025 has deteriorated. 2025 revenue forecast decreased from JP¥26.0b to JP¥23.7b. EPS estimate also fell from JP¥115 per share to JP¥20.80 per share. Net income forecast to shrink 44% next year vs 26% growth forecast for Entertainment industry in Japan . Consensus price target of JP¥2,657 unchanged from last update. Share price was steady at JP¥1,977 over the past week. Buy Or Sell Opportunity • Sep 03
Now 23% overvalued after recent price rise Over the last 90 days, the stock has risen 2.5% to JP¥2,139. The fair value is estimated to be JP¥1,736, however this is not to be taken as a sell recommendation but rather should be used as a guide only. Revenue has declined by 6.7% over the last 3 years. Earnings per share has declined by 61%. Revenue is forecast to grow by 11% in 2 years. Earnings are forecast to grow by 108% in the next 2 years. Announcement • Aug 27
Akatsuki Inc. to Report Q2, 2025 Results on Nov 08, 2024 Akatsuki Inc. announced that they will report Q2, 2025 results on Nov 08, 2024 Buy Or Sell Opportunity • Aug 18
Now 23% overvalued after recent price rise Over the last 90 days, the stock has risen 2.1% to JP¥2,156. The fair value is estimated to be JP¥1,752, however this is not to be taken as a sell recommendation but rather should be used as a guide only. Revenue has declined by 6.7% over the last 3 years. Earnings per share has declined by 61%. Revenue is forecast to grow by 11% in 2 years. Earnings are forecast to grow by 108% in the next 2 years. New Risk • Aug 05
New minor risk - Share price stability The company's share price has been volatile over the past 3 months. It is more volatile than 75% of Japanese stocks, typically moving 5.9% a week. This is considered a minor risk. Share price volatility indicates the stock is highly sensitive to market conditions or economic conditions rather than being sensitive to its own business performance, which may also be inconsistent. It also increases the risk of potential losses in the short term as the stock tends to have larger drops in price more frequently than other stocks. Currently, the following risks have been identified for the company: Minor Risks Paying a dividend despite having no free cash flows. Share price has been volatile over the past 3 months (5.9% average weekly change). Large one-off items impacting financial results. Shareholders have been diluted in the past year (25% increase in shares outstanding). Valuation Update With 7 Day Price Move • Aug 05
Investor sentiment deteriorates as stock falls 17% After last week's 17% share price decline to JP¥1,972, the stock trades at a forward P/E ratio of 17x. Average forward P/E is 20x in the Entertainment industry in Japan. Total loss to shareholders of 30% over the past three years. Simply Wall St's valuation model estimates the intrinsic value at JP¥1,244 per share. Declared Dividend • Jul 11
Final dividend of JP¥40.00 announced Shareholders will receive a dividend of JP¥40.00. Ex-date: 27th September 2024 Payment date: 9th December 2024 Dividend yield will be 3.1%, which is higher than the industry average of 1.8%. Sustainability & Growth Dividend is being paid despite the company being loss-making over the last 12 months and having no free cash flows available, indicating it may be using cash reserves or debt to pay the dividend. The dividend has increased by an average of 41% per year over the past 6 years and payments have been stable during that time. Major Estimate Revision • Jul 05
Consensus EPS estimates increase by 37% The consensus outlook for earnings per share (EPS) in fiscal year 2025 has improved. 2025 revenue forecast increased from JP¥25.4b to JP¥26.0b. EPS estimate increased from JP¥83.33 to JP¥115 per share. Net income forecast to grow 28% next year vs 6.8% growth forecast for Entertainment industry in Japan. Consensus price target broadly unchanged at JP¥2,657. Share price fell 5.2% to JP¥2,542 over the past week. Major Estimate Revision • Jun 13
Consensus EPS estimates increase by 62% The consensus outlook for earnings per share (EPS) in fiscal year 2025 has improved. 2025 revenue forecast increased from JP¥25.1b to JP¥25.4b. EPS estimate increased from JP¥48.50 to JP¥78.64 per share. Net income forecast to shrink 12% next year vs 8.8% growth forecast for Entertainment industry in Japan . Consensus price target down from JP¥2,840 to JP¥2,673. Share price rose 3.4% to JP¥2,177 over the past week. Announcement • Jun 02
Akatsuki Inc. to Report Q1, 2025 Results on Aug 09, 2024 Akatsuki Inc. announced that they will report Q1, 2025 results on Aug 09, 2024 Major Estimate Revision • May 21
Consensus EPS estimates fall by 79% The consensus outlook for fiscal year 2025 has been updated. 2025 EPS estimate fell from JP¥235 to JP¥48.50. Revenue forecast unchanged from JP¥25.1b at last update. Net income forecast to shrink 46% next year vs 13% growth forecast for Entertainment industry in Japan . Consensus price target of JP¥2,840 unchanged from last update. Share price fell 4.4% to JP¥2,106 over the past week. New Risk • May 16
New minor risk - Shareholder dilution The company's shareholders have been diluted in the past year. Increase in shares outstanding: 3.4% This is considered a minor risk. Shareholder dilution occurs when there is an increase in the number of shares on issue that is not proportionally distributed between all shareholders. Often due to the company raising equity capital or some options being converted into stock. All else being equal, if there are more shares outstanding then each existing share will be entitled to a lower proportion of the company's total earnings, thus reducing earnings per share (EPS). While dilution might not always result in lower EPS (like if the company is using the capital to fund an EPS accretive acquisition) in a lot cases it does, along with lower dividends per share and less voting power at shareholder meetings. Currently, the following risks have been identified for the company: Major Risk Dividend is not well covered by earnings and cash flows. Paying a dividend despite being loss-making. Paying a dividend despite having no free cash flows. Minor Risks Large one-off items impacting financial results. Shareholders have been diluted in the past year (3.4% increase in shares outstanding). Reported Earnings • May 11
Full year 2024 earnings: EPS misses analyst expectations Full year 2024 results: EPS: JP¥104. Revenue: JP¥24.0b (down 1.5% from FY 2023). Net income: JP¥1.29b (down 4.0% from FY 2023). Profit margin: 5.4% (down from 5.5% in FY 2023). Revenue was in line with analyst estimates. Earnings per share (EPS) missed analyst estimates by 26%. Revenue is forecast to grow 3.6% p.a. on average during the next 2 years, compared to a 4.5% growth forecast for the Entertainment industry in Japan. Announcement • May 11
Akatsuki Inc., Annual General Meeting, Jun 25, 2024 Akatsuki Inc., Annual General Meeting, Jun 25, 2024. Upcoming Dividend • Mar 21
Upcoming dividend of JP¥40.00 per share Eligible shareholders must have bought the stock before 28 March 2024. Payment date: 24 June 2024. The company is not currently making a profit but it is cash flow positive. Trailing yield: 3.1%. Lower than top quartile of Japanese dividend payers (3.2%). Higher than average of industry peers (1.8%). Declared Dividend • Mar 02
Dividend of JP¥40.00 announced Shareholders will receive a dividend of JP¥40.00. Ex-date: 28th March 2024 Payment date: 24th June 2024 Dividend yield will be 3.1%, which is higher than the industry average of 1.8%. Sustainability & Growth Dividend is being paid despite the company being loss-making over the last 12 months. However, the dividend is covered by cash flows (54% cash payout ratio). The dividend has increased by an average of 41% per year over the past 6 years and payments have been stable during that time. Announcement • Mar 02
Akatsuki Inc. to Report Fiscal Year 2024 Results on May 09, 2024 Akatsuki Inc. announced that they will report fiscal year 2024 results on May 09, 2024 Reported Earnings • Feb 10
Third quarter 2024 earnings released: JP¥38.00 loss per share (vs JP¥17.07 profit in 3Q 2023) Third quarter 2024 results: JP¥38.00 loss per share (down from JP¥17.07 profit in 3Q 2023). Revenue: JP¥5.27b (flat on 3Q 2023). Net loss: JP¥439.0m (down 289% from profit in 3Q 2023). Revenue is forecast to grow 5.7% p.a. on average during the next 3 years, compared to a 3.8% growth forecast for the Entertainment industry in Japan. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has fallen by 61% per year but the company’s share price has only fallen by 17% per year, which means it has not declined as severely as earnings. Price Target Changed • Jan 21
Price target increased by 19% to JP¥2,717 Up from JP¥2,275, the current price target is an average from 3 analysts. New target price is 11% above last closing price of JP¥2,445. Stock is up 11% over the past year. The company is forecast to post earnings per share of JP¥175 for next year compared to JP¥98.95 last year. Valuation Update With 7 Day Price Move • Dec 21
Investor sentiment improves as stock rises 23% After last week's 23% share price gain to JP¥2,596, the stock trades at a forward P/E ratio of 15x. Average forward P/E is 19x in the Entertainment industry in Japan. Total loss to shareholders of 31% over the past three years. Simply Wall St's valuation model estimates the intrinsic value at JP¥1,241 per share. Announcement • Nov 26
Akatsuki Inc. to Report Q3, 2024 Results on Feb 09, 2024 Akatsuki Inc. announced that they will report Q3, 2024 results on Feb 09, 2024 Major Estimate Revision • Nov 25
Consensus EPS estimates increase by 140% The consensus outlook for earnings per share (EPS) in fiscal year 2024 has improved. 2024 revenue forecast increased from JP¥21.3b to JP¥22.0b. EPS estimate increased from JP¥72.02 to JP¥173 per share. Net income forecast to grow 246% next year vs 18% growth forecast for Entertainment industry in Japan. Consensus price target of JP¥2,275 unchanged from last update. Share price was steady at JP¥2,211 over the past week. Reported Earnings • Nov 11
Second quarter 2024 earnings released: EPS: JP¥158 (vs JP¥124 in 2Q 2023) Second quarter 2024 results: EPS: JP¥158 (up from JP¥124 in 2Q 2023). Revenue: JP¥7.95b (up 3.9% from 2Q 2023). Net income: JP¥1.82b (up 8.3% from 2Q 2023). Profit margin: 23% (in line with 2Q 2023). Revenue is forecast to grow 1.4% p.a. on average during the next 3 years, compared to a 2.4% growth forecast for the Entertainment industry in Japan. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has fallen by 50% per year but the company’s share price has only fallen by 24% per year, which means it has not declined as severely as earnings. Upcoming Dividend • Sep 21
Upcoming dividend of JP¥40.00 per share at 3.5% yield Eligible shareholders must have bought the stock before 28 September 2023. Payment date: 09 December 2023. The company is paying out more than 100% of its profits but is generating plenty of cash to support the dividend. Trailing yield: 3.5%. Within top quartile of Japanese dividend payers (3.3%). Higher than average of industry peers (1.7%). Announcement • Aug 29
Akatsuki Inc. to Report Q2, 2024 Results on Nov 10, 2023 Akatsuki Inc. announced that they will report Q2, 2024 results on Nov 10, 2023 Major Estimate Revision • Aug 24
Consensus revenue estimates fall by 18% The consensus outlook for revenues in fiscal year 2024 has deteriorated. 2024 revenue forecast decreased from JP¥23.3b to JP¥19.2b. EPS estimate fell from JP¥145 to JP¥26.10 per share. Net income forecast to grow 35% next year vs 12% growth forecast for Entertainment industry in Japan. Consensus price target of JP¥2,275 unchanged from last update. Share price rose 2.9% to JP¥1,928 over the past week. Reported Earnings • Aug 11
First quarter 2024 earnings released: JP¥56.57 loss per share (vs JP¥14.06 profit in 1Q 2023) First quarter 2024 results: JP¥56.57 loss per share (down from JP¥14.06 profit in 1Q 2023). Revenue: JP¥3.61b (down 31% from 1Q 2023). Net loss: JP¥709.0m (down 473% from profit in 1Q 2023). Revenue is forecast to grow 3.9% p.a. on average during the next 3 years, compared to a 2.4% growth forecast for the Entertainment industry in Japan. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has fallen by 39% per year but the company’s share price has only fallen by 23% per year, which means it has not declined as severely as earnings. Major Estimate Revision • Jun 07
Consensus EPS estimates fall by 17% The consensus outlook for earnings per share (EPS) in fiscal year 2024 has deteriorated. 2024 revenue forecast decreased from JP¥23.9b to JP¥23.3b. EPS estimate also fell from JP¥187 per share to JP¥156 per share. Net income forecast to grow 55% next year vs 12% growth forecast for Entertainment industry in Japan. Consensus price target down from JP¥2,750 to JP¥2,275. Share price was steady at JP¥2,109 over the past week. Price Target Changed • Jun 06
Price target decreased by 20% to JP¥2,275 Down from JP¥2,850, the current price target is an average from 2 analysts. New target price is 6.5% above last closing price of JP¥2,136. Stock is down 24% over the past year. The company is forecast to post earnings per share of JP¥187 for next year compared to JP¥98.95 last year. Announcement • May 28
Akatsuki Inc. to Report Q1, 2024 Results on Aug 09, 2023 Akatsuki Inc. announced that they will report Q1, 2024 results on Aug 09, 2023 Announcement • May 17
Akatsuki Inc. (TSE:3932) announces an Equity Buyback for 2,250,000 shares, representing 16.49% for ¥4,817.25 million. Akatsuki Inc. (TSE:3932) announces a share repurchase program. Under the program, the company will repurchase 2,250,000 shares, representing 16.49% of its share capital, for ¥4,817.25 million. The program is aimed at securing financial soundness and safety. The company plans to use its own funds to repurchase its shares. As of March 31, 2023, the company had 13,642,872 shares outstanding (excluding treasury shares) and 500,728 shares in treasury. Announcement • May 13
Akatsuki Inc., Annual General Meeting, Jun 22, 2023 Akatsuki Inc., Annual General Meeting, Jun 22, 2023. Reported Earnings • Feb 12
Third quarter 2023 earnings released: EPS: JP¥17.07 (vs JP¥87.28 in 3Q 2022) Third quarter 2023 results: EPS: JP¥17.07 (down from JP¥87.28 in 3Q 2022). Revenue: JP¥5.26b (down 14% from 3Q 2022). Net income: JP¥232.0m (down 80% from 3Q 2022). Profit margin: 4.4% (down from 19% in 3Q 2022). Revenue is forecast to grow 2.2% p.a. on average during the next 3 years, compared to a 3.0% growth forecast for the Entertainment industry in Japan. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has fallen by 19% per year whereas the company’s share price has fallen by 22% per year. Major Estimate Revision • Jan 21
Consensus EPS estimates increase by 15% The consensus outlook for earnings per share (EPS) in 2023 has improved. 2023 revenue forecast increased from JP¥25.5b to JP¥26.0b. EPS estimate increased from JP¥250 to JP¥288 per share. Net income forecast to shrink 21% next year vs 1.3% growth forecast for Entertainment industry in Japan . Consensus price target of JP¥2,850 unchanged from last update. Share price was steady at JP¥2,205 over the past week. Announcement • Nov 27
Akatsuki Inc. to Report Q3, 2023 Results on Feb 10, 2023 Akatsuki Inc. announced that they will report Q3, 2023 results on Feb 10, 2023 Board Change • Nov 16
Less than half of directors are independent There are 5 new directors who have joined the board in the last 3 years. Of these new board members, 2 were independent directors. The company's board is composed of: 5 new directors. 4 experienced directors. No highly experienced directors. 2 independent directors (3 non-independent directors). Director Yuki Totsuka is the most experienced director on the board, commencing their role in 2019. Independent Outside Director Tetsuya Mizuguchi was the last independent director to join the board, commencing their role in 2020. The following issues are considered to be risks according to the Simply Wall St Risk Model: Minority of independent directors. Lack of board continuity. Lack of experienced directors. Reported Earnings • Nov 11
Second quarter 2023 earnings released: EPS: JP¥124 (vs JP¥151 in 2Q 2022) Second quarter 2023 results: EPS: JP¥124 (down from JP¥151 in 2Q 2022). Revenue: JP¥7.66b (up 1.9% from 2Q 2022). Net income: JP¥1.68b (down 17% from 2Q 2022). Profit margin: 22% (down from 27% in 2Q 2022). The decrease in margin was driven by higher expenses. Revenue is forecast to grow 3.0% p.a. on average during the next 3 years, compared to a 2.4% growth forecast for the Entertainment industry in Japan. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has fallen by 18% per year but the company’s share price has fallen by 28% per year, which means it is performing significantly worse than earnings. Upcoming Dividend • Sep 22
Upcoming dividend of JP¥40.00 per share Eligible shareholders must have bought the stock before 29 September 2022. Payment date: 06 December 2022. Payout ratio is a comfortable 22% and this is well supported by cash flows. Trailing yield: 3.7%. Within top quartile of Japanese dividend payers (3.7%). Higher than average of industry peers (2.2%). Reported Earnings • Aug 11
First quarter 2023 earnings released: EPS: JP¥14.06 (vs JP¥40.86 in 1Q 2022) First quarter 2023 results: EPS: JP¥14.06 (down from JP¥40.86 in 1Q 2022). Revenue: JP¥5.21b (up 1.8% from 1Q 2022). Net income: JP¥190.0m (down 66% from 1Q 2022). Profit margin: 3.6% (down from 11% in 1Q 2022). The decrease in margin was driven by higher expenses. Over the next year, revenue is expected to shrink by 5.6% compared to a 11% growth forecast for the industry in Japan. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has fallen by 19% per year but the company’s share price has fallen by 29% per year, which means it is performing significantly worse than earnings. Major Estimate Revision • Aug 10
Consensus forecasts updated The consensus outlook for 2023 has been updated. 2023 EPS estimate increased from JP¥259 to JP¥304. Revenue forecast unchanged at JP¥24.4b. Net income forecast to shrink 38% next year vs 4.1% growth forecast for Entertainment industry in Japan . Consensus price target of JP¥4,167 unchanged from last update. Share price fell 7.6% to JP¥2,420 over the past week.