Koei Tecmo Holdings Co., Ltd. Just Missed EPS By 75%: Here's What Analysts Think Will Happen Next

It's been a good week for Koei Tecmo Holdings Co., Ltd. (TSE:3635) shareholders, because the company has just released its latest half-year results, and the shares gained 4.3% to JP¥1,573. Statutory earnings per share fell badly short of expectations, coming in at JP¥7.40, some 75% below analyst forecasts, although revenues were okay, approximately in line with analyst estimates at JP¥18b. This is an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance in its report, look at what experts are forecasting for next year, and see if there has been any change to expectations for the business. So we collected the latest post-earnings statutory consensus estimates to see what could be in store for next year.

See our latest analysis for Koei Tecmo Holdings

Following the latest results, Koei Tecmo Holdings' nine analysts are now forecasting revenues of JP¥83.5b in 2025. This would be a modest 4.2% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are forecast to decrease 4.5% to JP¥99.72 in the same period. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of JP¥84.0b and earnings per share (EPS) of JP¥98.10 in 2025. The consensus analysts don't seem to have seen anything in these results that would have changed their view on the business, given there's been no major change to their estimates.

It will come as no surprise then, to learn that the consensus price target is largely unchanged at JP¥1,529. It could also be instructive to look at the range of analyst estimates, to evaluate how different the outlier opinions are from the mean. There are some variant perceptions on Koei Tecmo Holdings, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at JP¥1,950 and the most bearish at JP¥1,240 per share. There are definitely some different views on the stock, but the range of estimates is not wide enough as to imply that the situation is unforecastable, in our view.

Another way we can view these estimates is in the context of the bigger picture, such as how the forecasts stack up against past performance, and whether forecasts are more or less bullish relative to other companies in the industry. It's pretty clear that there is an expectation that Koei Tecmo Holdings' revenue growth will slow down substantially, with revenues to the end of 2025 expected to display 8.7% growth on an annualised basis. This is compared to a historical growth rate of 14% over the past five years. Compare this to the 72 other companies in this industry with analyst coverage, which are forecast to grow their revenue at 8.1% per year. Factoring in the forecast slowdown in growth, it looks like Koei Tecmo Holdings is forecast to grow at about the same rate as the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The most obvious conclusion is that there's been no major change in the business' prospects in recent times, with the analysts holding their earnings forecasts steady, in line with previous estimates. Happily, there were no real changes to revenue forecasts, with the business still expected to grow in line with the overall industry. The consensus price target held steady at JP¥1,529, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.

With that said, the long-term trajectory of the company's earnings is a lot more important than next year. We have estimates - from multiple Koei Tecmo Holdings analysts - going out to 2027, and you can see them free on our platform here.

Before you take the next step you should know about the 1 warning sign for Koei Tecmo Holdings that we have uncovered.

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.