Sumitomo Metal Mining Co., Ltd. Just Beat EPS By 20%: Here's What Analysts Think Will Happen Next

Sumitomo Metal Mining Co., Ltd. (TSE:5713) investors will be delighted, with the company turning in some strong numbers with its latest results. It was overall a positive result, with revenues beating expectations by 5.3% to hit JP¥390b. Sumitomo Metal Mining reported statutory earnings per share (EPS) JP¥88.91, which was a notable 20% above what the analysts had forecast. This is an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance in its report, look at what experts are forecasting for next year, and see if there has been any change to expectations for the business. So we gathered the latest post-earnings forecasts to see what estimates suggest is in store for next year.

Check out our latest analysis for Sumitomo Metal Mining

Following last week's earnings report, Sumitomo Metal Mining's eight analysts are forecasting 2025 revenues to be JP¥1.51t, approximately in line with the last 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are predicted to climb 17% to JP¥287. Before this earnings report, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of JP¥1.57t and earnings per share (EPS) of JP¥322 in 2025. The analysts seem less optimistic after the recent results, reducing their revenue forecasts and making a substantial drop in earnings per share numbers.

Despite the cuts to forecast earnings, there was no real change to the JP¥4,656 price target, showing that the analysts don't think the changes have a meaningful impact on its intrinsic value. There's another way to think about price targets though, and that's to look at the range of price targets put forward by analysts, because a wide range of estimates could suggest a diverse view on possible outcomes for the business. Currently, the most bullish analyst values Sumitomo Metal Mining at JP¥5,400 per share, while the most bearish prices it at JP¥3,900. There are definitely some different views on the stock, but the range of estimates is not wide enough as to imply that the situation is unforecastable, in our view.

Of course, another way to look at these forecasts is to place them into context against the industry itself. We would highlight that revenue is expected to reverse, with a forecast 2.4% annualised decline to the end of 2025. That is a notable change from historical growth of 13% over the last five years. Compare this with our data, which suggests that other companies in the same industry are, in aggregate, expected to see their revenue grow 2.0% per year. It's pretty clear that Sumitomo Metal Mining's revenues are expected to perform substantially worse than the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The biggest concern is that the analysts reduced their earnings per share estimates, suggesting business headwinds could lay ahead for Sumitomo Metal Mining. On the negative side, they also downgraded their revenue estimates, and forecasts imply they will perform worse than the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.

With that in mind, we wouldn't be too quick to come to a conclusion on Sumitomo Metal Mining. Long-term earnings power is much more important than next year's profits. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for Sumitomo Metal Mining going out to 2027, and you can see them free on our platform here..

Before you take the next step you should know about the 2 warning signs for Sumitomo Metal Mining that we have uncovered.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.