Buy Or Sell Opportunity • Jun 15
Now 22% overvalued Over the last 90 days, the stock has fallen 24% to JP¥2,325. The fair value is estimated to be JP¥1,904, however this is not to be taken as a sell recommendation but rather should be used as a guide only. Revenue has declined by 44% over the last 3 years. Meanwhile, the company has become profitable. Announcement • Jun 01
Pacific Metals Co., Ltd. to Report Q1, 2027 Results on Aug 06, 2026 Pacific Metals Co., Ltd. announced that they will report Q1, 2027 results on Aug 06, 2026 Buy Or Sell Opportunity • May 27
Now 21% overvalued Over the last 90 days, the stock has fallen 32% to JP¥2,327. The fair value is estimated to be JP¥1,928, however this is not to be taken as a sell recommendation but rather should be used as a guide only. Revenue has declined by 44% over the last 3 years. Meanwhile, the company has become profitable. Reported Earnings • May 13
Full year 2026 earnings released: EPS: JP¥146 (vs JP¥85.48 loss in FY 2025) Full year 2026 results: EPS: JP¥146 (up from JP¥85.48 loss in FY 2025). Revenue: JP¥9.41b (down 28% from FY 2025). Net income: JP¥2.61b (up JP¥4.28b from FY 2025). Profit margin: 28% (up from net loss in FY 2025). The move to profitability was driven by lower expenses. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has increased by 88% per year but the company’s share price has only increased by 15% per year, which means it is significantly lagging earnings growth. Announcement • May 12
Pacific Metals Co., Ltd., Annual General Meeting, Jun 24, 2026 Pacific Metals Co., Ltd., Annual General Meeting, Jun 24, 2026. Announcement • May 09
Pacific Metals Co., Ltd. to Report Fiscal Year 2026 Results on May 12, 2026 Pacific Metals Co., Ltd. announced that they will report fiscal year 2026 results on May 12, 2026 Upcoming Dividend • Mar 23
Upcoming dividend of JP¥60.00 per share Eligible shareholders must have bought the stock before 30 March 2026. Payment date: 05 June 2026. The company is paying out more than 100% of its earnings and cash flow. Trailing yield: 4.5%. Within top quartile of Japanese dividend payers (3.6%). Higher than average of industry peers (2.5%). Valuation Update With 7 Day Price Move • Mar 06
Investor sentiment deteriorates as stock falls 18% After last week's 18% share price decline to JP¥3,145, the stock trades at a trailing P/E ratio of 70x. Average trailing P/E is 14x in the Metals and Mining industry in Japan. Total returns to shareholders of 76% over the past three years. New Risk • Mar 04
New major risk - Share price stability The company's share price has been highly volatile over the past 3 months. It is more volatile than 90% of Japanese stocks, typically moving 9.0% a week. This is considered a major risk. Share price volatility increases the risk of potential losses in the short-term as the stock tends to have larger drops in price more frequently than other stocks. It may also indicate the stock is highly sensitive to market conditions or economic conditions rather than being sensitive to its own business performance, which may also be inconsistent. Currently, the following risks have been identified for the company: Major Risks Share price has been highly volatile over the past 3 months (9.0% average weekly change). Dividend is not well covered by earnings and cash flows. Payout ratio: 459% Dividend per share is over 9x cash flows per share. Reported Earnings • Feb 07
Third quarter 2026 earnings released: EPS: JP¥102 (vs JP¥5.95 in 3Q 2025) Third quarter 2026 results: EPS: JP¥102 (up from JP¥5.95 in 3Q 2025). Revenue: JP¥2.29b (down 20% from 3Q 2025). Net income: JP¥1.78b (up JP¥1.67b from 3Q 2025). Profit margin: 78% (up from 4.0% in 3Q 2025). The increase in margin was driven by lower expenses. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has increased by 40% per year but the company’s share price has only increased by 13% per year, which means it is significantly lagging earnings growth. Declared Dividend • Dec 04
First half dividend of JP¥60.00 announced Shareholders will receive a dividend of JP¥60.00. Ex-date: 30th March 2026 Payment date: 5th June 2026 Dividend yield will be 5.2%, which is higher than the industry average of 3.4%. Sustainability & Growth Dividend is being paid despite the company being loss-making over the last 12 months. The dividend is also not covered by cash flows (dividend approximately 9x free cash flows). The dividend has increased by an average of 9.1% per year over the past 10 years. However, payments have been volatile during that time. Announcement • Dec 03
Pacific Metals Co., Ltd. to Report Q3, 2026 Results on Feb 06, 2026 Pacific Metals Co., Ltd. announced that they will report Q3, 2026 results on Feb 06, 2026 New Risk • Nov 26
New minor risk - Share price stability The company's share price has been volatile over the past 3 months. It is more volatile than 75% of Japanese stocks, typically moving 5.5% a week. This is considered a minor risk. Share price volatility indicates the stock is highly sensitive to market conditions or economic conditions rather than being sensitive to its own business performance, which may also be inconsistent. It also increases the risk of potential losses in the short term as the stock tends to have larger drops in price more frequently than other stocks. Currently, the following risks have been identified for the company: Major Risks Dividend is not well covered by earnings and cash flows. Paying a dividend despite being loss-making. Dividend per share is over 9x cash flows per share. Earnings have declined by 37% per year over the past 5 years. Minor Risk Share price has been volatile over the past 3 months (5.5% average weekly change). Reported Earnings • Nov 14
Second quarter 2026 earnings released: EPS: JP¥64.56 (vs JP¥112 loss in 2Q 2025) Second quarter 2026 results: EPS: JP¥64.56 (up from JP¥112 loss in 2Q 2025). Revenue: JP¥2.60b (down 41% from 2Q 2025). Net income: JP¥1.14b (up JP¥3.32b from 2Q 2025). Profit margin: 44% (up from net loss in 2Q 2025). Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has fallen by 17% per year but the company’s share price has increased by 5% per year, which means it is well ahead of earnings. New Risk • Sep 12
New major risk - Revenue and earnings growth Earnings have declined by 35% per year over the past 5 years. This is considered a major risk. Ultimately, shareholders want to see a good return on their investment and that generally comes from sharing in the company's profits. If profits are declining over an extended period, then in most cases the share price will decline over time unless the company can turn around its fortunes. A trend of falling earnings can be very difficult to turn around. If the company is well already established it may also be a sign the company has matured and is in decline. In addition, if the company pays dividends it will also likely need to reduce or cut them, striking a dual blow to total shareholder returns. Currently, the following risks have been identified for the company: Major Risk Earnings have declined by 35% per year over the past 5 years. Minor Risk Paying a dividend despite being loss-making. Announcement • Sep 05
Pacific Metals Co., Ltd. to Report Q2, 2026 Results on Nov 11, 2025 Pacific Metals Co., Ltd. announced that they will report Q2, 2026 results on Nov 11, 2025 Buy Or Sell Opportunity • Aug 25
Now 21% overvalued after recent price rise Over the last 90 days, the stock has risen 20% to JP¥2,045. The fair value is estimated to be JP¥1,687, however this is not to be taken as a sell recommendation but rather should be used as a guide only. Revenue has declined by 56% over the last 3 years. Meanwhile, the company became loss making. For the next 3 years, revenue is forecast to grow by 2.6% per annum. Earnings are also forecast to grow by 47% per annum over the same time period. Reported Earnings • Aug 08
First quarter 2026 earnings released: JP¥118 loss per share (vs JP¥48.13 loss in 1Q 2025) First quarter 2026 results: JP¥118 loss per share (further deteriorated from JP¥48.13 loss in 1Q 2025). Revenue: JP¥1.86b (down 52% from 1Q 2025). Net loss: JP¥2.23b (loss widened 138% from 1Q 2025). Revenue is forecast to grow 2.6% p.a. on average during the next 3 years, compared to a 2.7% growth forecast for the Metals and Mining industry in Japan. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has fallen by 59% per year but the company’s share price has only fallen by 9% per year, which means it has not declined as severely as earnings. Announcement • Jun 13
Pacific Metals Co., Ltd. (TSE:5541) announces an Equity Buyback for 2,150,000 shares, representing 11.03% for ¥3,900 million. Pacific Metals Co., Ltd. (TSE:5541) announces a share repurchase program. Under the program, the company will repurchase up to 2,150,000 shares, representing 11.03% of its issued share capital, for ¥3,900 million. The shares will be repurchased at a price of ¥1,718 per share. The purpose of program is to improve capital efficiency and provide returns to our shareholders, and also to execute flexible capital policies in response to changes in the management environment. The repurchase program is valid till June 16, 2025. As of March 31, 2025, the company had 19,501,113 shares issued (excluding treasury shares) and had 75,958 shares in treasury. Announcement • Jun 04
Pacific Metals Co., Ltd. to Report Q1, 2026 Results on Aug 07, 2025 Pacific Metals Co., Ltd. announced that they will report Q1, 2026 results on Aug 07, 2025 New Risk • May 17
New major risk - Dividend sustainability The dividend is not well covered by earnings and cash flows. The company is paying a dividend despite being loss-making. Cash payout ratio: 95% Dividend yield: 7.1% This is considered a major risk. Companies that pay out too much of their earnings and cash flows are at risk of having to reduce or cut their dividend in future. If earnings or cash flows stagnate or fall, then there may not be enough to maintain the same dividend. Or in extreme cases, companies may opt to dig into capital reserves or take on debt to maintain the dividend. For dividend paying companies, any reduction in the dividend can significantly impact the share price. Currently, the following risks have been identified for the company: Major Risks Share price has been highly volatile over the past 3 months (9.6% average weekly change). Dividend is not well covered by earnings and cash flows. Paying a dividend despite being loss-making. Cash payout ratio: 95% Minor Risk Currently unprofitable and not forecast to become profitable over next 3 years (JP¥800m net loss in 3 years). Reported Earnings • May 10
Full year 2025 earnings: EPS and revenues miss analyst expectations Full year 2025 results: JP¥85.48 loss per share (further deteriorated from JP¥55.07 loss in FY 2024). Revenue: JP¥13.2b (down 15% from FY 2024). Net loss: JP¥1.67b (loss widened 55% from FY 2024). Revenue missed analyst estimates by 9.1%. Earnings per share (EPS) also missed analyst estimates by 85%. Revenue is forecast to stay flat during the next 3 years, in line with the revenue forecast for the Metals and Mining industry in Japan. Over the last 3 years on average, the company's share price growth rate has exceeded its earnings growth rate by 59 percentage points per year, which is a significant difference in performance. Announcement • May 09
Pacific Metals Co., Ltd., Annual General Meeting, Jun 25, 2025 Pacific Metals Co., Ltd., Annual General Meeting, Jun 25, 2025. Announcement • Mar 06
Pacific Metals Co., Ltd. to Report Fiscal Year 2025 Results on May 09, 2025 Pacific Metals Co., Ltd. announced that they will report fiscal year 2025 results on May 09, 2025 New Risk • Feb 28
New major risk - Share price stability The company's share price has been highly volatile over the past 3 months. It is more volatile than 90% of Japanese stocks, typically moving 8.1% a week. This is considered a major risk. Share price volatility increases the risk of potential losses in the short-term as the stock tends to have larger drops in price more frequently than other stocks. It may also indicate the stock is highly sensitive to market conditions or economic conditions rather than being sensitive to its own business performance, which may also be inconsistent. Currently, the following risks have been identified for the company: Major Risk Share price has been highly volatile over the past 3 months (8.1% average weekly change). Minor Risk Currently unprofitable and not forecast to become profitable over next 3 years (JP¥850m net loss in 3 years). Reported Earnings • Feb 08
Third quarter 2025 earnings released: EPS: JP¥5.95 (vs JP¥33.18 in 3Q 2024) Third quarter 2025 results: EPS: JP¥5.95 (down from JP¥33.18 in 3Q 2024). Revenue: JP¥2.87b (down 25% from 3Q 2024). Net income: JP¥116.0m (down 82% from 3Q 2024). Profit margin: 4.0% (down from 17% in 3Q 2024). Revenue is forecast to stay flat during the next 3 years compared to a 1.5% growth forecast for the Metals and Mining industry in Japan. Over the last 3 years on average, the company's share price growth rate has exceeded its earnings growth rate by 56 percentage points per year, which is a significant difference in performance. Announcement • Dec 21
Pacific Metals Co., Ltd. to Report Q3, 2025 Results on Feb 07, 2025 Pacific Metals Co., Ltd. announced that they will report Q3, 2025 results on Feb 07, 2025 Reported Earnings • Nov 10
Second quarter 2025 earnings released: JP¥112 loss per share (vs JP¥53.59 loss in 2Q 2024) Second quarter 2025 results: JP¥112 loss per share (further deteriorated from JP¥53.59 loss in 2Q 2024). Revenue: JP¥4.39b (up 14% from 2Q 2024). Net loss: JP¥2.18b (loss widened 108% from 2Q 2024). Revenue is expected to decline by 1.8% p.a. on average during the next 3 years, while revenues in the Metals and Mining industry in Japan are expected to grow by 2.7%. Over the last 3 years on average, the company's share price growth rate has exceeded its earnings growth rate by 59 percentage points per year, which is a significant difference in performance. Announcement • Oct 02
Pacific Metals Co., Ltd. to Report Q2, 2025 Results on Nov 08, 2024 Pacific Metals Co., Ltd. announced that they will report Q2, 2025 results on Nov 08, 2024 New Risk • Sep 05
New major risk - Revenue and earnings growth Earnings are forecast to decline by an average of 25% per year for the foreseeable future. This is considered a major risk. Ultimately, shareholders want to see a good return on their investment and that generally comes from sharing in the company's profits. If profits are expected to decline, then in most cases the share price will decline over time as well. In addition, if the company pays dividends it will also likely need to reduce or cut them, striking a dual blow to total shareholder returns. Currently, the following risks have been identified for the company: Major Risk Earnings are forecast to decline by an average of 25% per year for the foreseeable future. Minor Risk Large one-off items impacting financial results. Announcement • Jun 28
Pacific Metals Co., Ltd. to Report Q1, 2025 Results on Aug 08, 2024 Pacific Metals Co., Ltd. announced that they will report Q1, 2025 results on Aug 08, 2024 Reported Earnings • Jun 26
Full year 2024 earnings: EPS exceeds analyst expectations while revenues lag behind Full year 2024 results: JP¥55.07 loss per share (improved from JP¥258 loss in FY 2023). Revenue: JP¥15.5b (down 56% from FY 2023). Net loss: JP¥1.07b (loss narrowed 79% from FY 2023). Revenue missed analyst estimates by 7.6%. Earnings per share (EPS) exceeded analyst estimates by 43%. Revenue is expected to decline by 2.0% p.a. on average during the next 3 years, while revenues in the Metals and Mining industry in Japan are expected to grow by 3.1%. Over the last 3 years on average, the company's share price growth rate has exceeded its earnings growth rate by 60 percentage points per year, which is a significant difference in performance. Major Estimate Revision • Jun 06
Consensus revenue estimates decrease by 12%, EPS upgraded The consensus outlook for fiscal year 2025 has been updated. 2025 revenue forecast fell from JP¥16.4b to JP¥14.5b. EPS estimate increased from -JP¥123 to -JP¥46.20 per share. Metals and Mining industry in Japan expected to see average net income growth of 2.4% next year. Consensus price target down from JP¥1,300 to JP¥1,100. Share price was steady at JP¥1,262 over the past week. New Risk • May 12
New major risk - Revenue and earnings growth Earnings are forecast to decline by an average of 11% per year for the foreseeable future. This is considered a major risk. Ultimately, shareholders want to see a good return on their investment and that generally comes from sharing in the company's profits. If profits are expected to decline, then in most cases the share price will decline over time as well. In addition, if the company pays dividends it will also likely need to reduce or cut them, striking a dual blow to total shareholder returns. Currently, the following risks have been identified for the company: Major Risk Earnings are forecast to decline by an average of 11% per year for the foreseeable future. Minor Risk Currently unprofitable and not forecast to become profitable over next 3 years (JP¥2.4b net loss in 3 years). Reported Earnings • May 12
Full year 2024 earnings: EPS exceeds analyst expectations while revenues lag behind Full year 2024 results: JP¥55.07 loss per share (improved from JP¥258 loss in FY 2023). Revenue: JP¥15.5b (down 56% from FY 2023). Net loss: JP¥1.07b (loss narrowed 79% from FY 2023). Revenue missed analyst estimates by 7.6%. Earnings per share (EPS) exceeded analyst estimates by 43%. Revenue is forecast to grow 1.6% p.a. on average during the next 3 years, compared to a 3.3% growth forecast for the Metals and Mining industry in Japan. Over the last 3 years on average, the company's share price growth rate has exceeded its earnings growth rate by 56 percentage points per year, which is a significant difference in performance. Announcement • May 12
Pacific Metals Co., Ltd., Annual General Meeting, Jun 21, 2024 Pacific Metals Co., Ltd., Annual General Meeting, Jun 21, 2024. Announcement • Apr 03
Pacific Metals Co., Ltd.(TSE:5541) dropped from Nikkei 225 Index Pacific Metals Co., Ltd has been removed from Nikkei 225 Index. Announcement • Mar 17
Pacific Metals Co., Ltd. to Report Fiscal Year 2024 Results on May 10, 2024 Pacific Metals Co., Ltd. announced that they will report fiscal year 2024 results on May 10, 2024 Reported Earnings • Feb 10
Third quarter 2024 earnings released: EPS: JP¥33.17 (vs JP¥73.02 loss in 3Q 2023) Third quarter 2024 results: EPS: JP¥33.17 (up from JP¥73.02 loss in 3Q 2023). Revenue: JP¥3.84b (down 61% from 3Q 2023). Net income: JP¥647.0m (up JP¥2.07b from 3Q 2023). Profit margin: 17% (up from net loss in 3Q 2023). Revenue is expected to decline by 1.8% p.a. on average during the next 3 years, while revenues in the Metals and Mining industry in Japan are expected to grow by 2.8%. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has fallen by 59% per year but the company’s share price has only fallen by 15% per year, which means it has not declined as severely as earnings. New Risk • Jan 26
New minor risk - Share price stability The company's share price has been volatile over the past 3 months. It is more volatile than 75% of Japanese stocks, typically moving 6.1% a week. This is considered a minor risk. Share price volatility indicates the stock is highly sensitive to market conditions or economic conditions rather than being sensitive to its own business performance, which may also be inconsistent. It also increases the risk of potential losses in the short term as the stock tends to have larger drops in price more frequently than other stocks. Currently, the following risks have been identified for the company: Minor Risks Currently unprofitable and not forecast to become profitable over next 3 years (JP¥2.3b net loss in 3 years). Share price has been volatile over the past 3 months (6.1% average weekly change). Buy Or Sell Opportunity • Jan 23
Now 21% undervalued Over the last 90 days, the stock has risen 1.9% to JP¥1,236. The fair value is estimated to be JP¥1,566, however this is not to be taken as a buy recommendation but rather should be used as a guide only. Revenue has been flat over the last 3 years. Meanwhile, the company became loss making. For the next 3 years, revenue is forecast to decline by 6.4% per annum. Earnings are forecast to grow by 23% per annum over the same time period. Announcement • Dec 10
Pacific Metals Co., Ltd. to Report Q3, 2024 Results on Feb 09, 2024 Pacific Metals Co., Ltd. announced that they will report Q3, 2024 results on Feb 09, 2024 New Risk • Nov 25
New minor risk - Profitability The company is currently unprofitable and not forecast to become profitable over the next 3 years. Trailing 12-month net loss: JP¥7.9b Forecast net loss in 3 years: JP¥2.3b This is considered a minor risk. Companies that are not profitable are more likely to be burning through cash and less likely to be well established. Ultimately, shareholders want to see a good return on their investment and that generally comes from sharing in the company's profits. Without profits, the company is under pressure to grow significantly while potentially having to reduce costs and possibly needing to take on debt or raise capital to remain afloat. This is currently the only risk that has been identified for the company. Announcement • Nov 11
Pacific Metals Co., Ltd. Provides Consolidated Earnings Guidance for the Fiscal Year Ending March 31, 2024 Pacific Metals Co., Ltd. provided consolidated earnings guidance for the fiscal year ending March 31, 2024. For the year, the company expects net sales of JPY 15,874 million, operating loss of JPY 8,611 million, loss attributable to owners of parent of JPY 2,442 million and basic loss per share of JPY 125.22. Reported Earnings • Nov 10
Second quarter 2024 earnings released: JP¥53.59 loss per share (vs JP¥157 loss in 2Q 2023) Second quarter 2024 results: JP¥53.59 loss per share (improved from JP¥157 loss in 2Q 2023). Revenue: JP¥3.87b (down 43% from 2Q 2023). Net loss: JP¥1.05b (loss narrowed 66% from 2Q 2023). Revenue is expected to decline by 6.1% p.a. on average during the next 3 years, while revenues in the Metals and Mining industry in Japan are expected to grow by 1.3%. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has fallen by 41% per year but the company’s share price has only fallen by 9% per year, which means it has not declined as severely as earnings. New Risk • Nov 06
New minor risk - Share price stability The company's share price has been volatile over the past 3 months. It is more volatile than 75% of Japanese stocks, typically moving 5.5% a week. This is considered a minor risk. Share price volatility indicates the stock is highly sensitive to market conditions or economic conditions rather than being sensitive to its own business performance, which may also be inconsistent. It also increases the risk of potential losses in the short term as the stock tends to have larger drops in price more frequently than other stocks. This is currently the only risk that has been identified for the company. Announcement • Sep 09
Pacific Metals Co., Ltd. to Report Q2, 2024 Results on Nov 09, 2023 Pacific Metals Co., Ltd. announced that they will report Q2, 2024 results on Nov 09, 2023 Reported Earnings • Aug 10
First quarter 2024 earnings released: JP¥80.30 loss per share (vs JP¥168 profit in 1Q 2023) First quarter 2024 results: JP¥80.30 loss per share (down from JP¥168 profit in 1Q 2023). Revenue: JP¥4.22b (down 61% from 1Q 2023). Net loss: JP¥1.57b (down 148% from profit in 1Q 2023). Revenue is forecast to decline by 7.7% p.a. on average during the next 3 years, while revenues in the Metals and Mining industry in Japan are expected to remain flat. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has fallen by 12% per year but the company’s share price has only fallen by 4% per year, which means it has not declined as severely as earnings. Announcement • Jun 03
Pacific Metals Co., Ltd. to Report Q1, 2024 Results on Aug 09, 2023 Pacific Metals Co., Ltd. announced that they will report Q1, 2024 results on Aug 09, 2023 Reported Earnings • May 10
Full year 2023 earnings released: JP¥258 loss per share (vs JP¥583 profit in FY 2022) Full year 2023 results: JP¥258 loss per share (down from JP¥583 profit in FY 2022). Revenue: JP¥34.9b (down 39% from FY 2022). Net loss: JP¥5.03b (down 144% from profit in FY 2022). Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has increased by 36% per year but the company’s share price has only increased by 4% per year, which means it is significantly lagging earnings growth. Reported Earnings • Feb 10
Third quarter 2023 earnings released: JP¥73.01 loss per share (vs JP¥191 profit in 3Q 2022) Third quarter 2023 results: JP¥73.01 loss per share (down from JP¥191 profit in 3Q 2022). Revenue: JP¥9.88b (down 43% from 3Q 2022). Net loss: JP¥1.42b (down 138% from profit in 3Q 2022). Revenue is forecast to grow 7.6% p.a. on average during the next 3 years, while revenues in the Metals and Mining industry in Japan are expected to remain flat. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has increased by 65% per year but the company’s share price has fallen by 5% per year, which means it is significantly lagging earnings. Announcement • Nov 30
Pacific Metals Co., Ltd. to Report Q3, 2023 Results on Feb 08, 2023 Pacific Metals Co., Ltd. announced that they will report Q3, 2023 results on Feb 08, 2023 Board Change • Nov 16
Less than half of directors are independent Following the recent departure of a director, there are only 3 independent directors on the board. The company's board is composed of: 3 independent directors. 6 non-independent directors. Independent Outside Director Yukari Sakai was the last independent director to join the board, commencing their role in 2021. The company's minority of independent directors is a risk according to the Simply Wall St Risk Model. Reported Earnings • Nov 11
Second quarter 2023 earnings released: JP¥157 loss per share (vs JP¥117 profit in 2Q 2022) Second quarter 2023 results: JP¥157 loss per share (down from JP¥117 profit in 2Q 2022). Revenue: JP¥6.79b (down 47% from 2Q 2022). Net loss: JP¥3.05b (down 234% from profit in 2Q 2022). Revenue is forecast to grow 6.1% p.a. on average during the next 3 years, while revenues in the Metals and Mining industry in Japan are expected to remain flat. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has increased by 81% per year but the company’s share price has fallen by 8% per year, which means it is significantly lagging earnings. Major Estimate Revision • Aug 26
Consensus forecasts updated The consensus outlook for 2023 has been updated. 2023 revenue forecast increased from JP¥63.4b to JP¥64.5b. EPS estimate fell from JP¥554 to JP¥251 per share. Net income forecast to shrink 62% next year vs 14% decline forecast for Metals and Mining industry in Japan. Consensus price target up from JP¥2,300 to JP¥2,600. Share price was steady at JP¥2,520 over the past week. Reported Earnings • Aug 12
First quarter 2023 earnings released: EPS: JP¥168 (vs JP¥58.04 in 1Q 2022) First quarter 2023 results: EPS: JP¥168 (up from JP¥58.04 in 1Q 2022). Revenue: JP¥10.9b (down 3.7% from 1Q 2022). Net income: JP¥3.28b (up 190% from 1Q 2022). Profit margin: 30% (up from 10.0% in 1Q 2022). The increase in margin was driven by lower expenses. Over the next year, revenue is forecast to grow 18%, compared to a 2,013% growth forecast for the industry in Japan. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has increased by 86% per year but the company’s share price has only increased by 6% per year, which means it is significantly lagging earnings growth. Major Estimate Revision • Jun 08
Consensus revenue estimates increase by 18% The consensus outlook for revenues in 2023 has improved. 2023 revenue forecast increased from JP¥53.6b to JP¥63.4b. EPS estimate increased from JP¥492 to JP¥554 per share. Net income forecast to shrink 5.0% next year vs 22% decline forecast for Metals and Mining industry in Japan. Consensus price target of JP¥2,300 unchanged from last update. Share price rose 5.0% to JP¥2,929 over the past week. Reported Earnings • May 11
Full year 2022 earnings: EPS exceeds analyst expectations Full year 2022 results: EPS: JP¥583 (up from JP¥59.58 in FY 2021). Revenue: JP¥57.1b (up 77% from FY 2021). Net income: JP¥11.4b (up JP¥10.2b from FY 2021). Profit margin: 20% (up from 3.6% in FY 2021). The increase in margin was driven by higher revenue. Revenue was in line with analyst estimates. Earnings per share (EPS) surpassed analyst estimates by 22%. Over the next year, revenue is expected to shrink by 6.2% compared to a 7.5% growth forecast for the mining industry in Japan. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has increased by 56% per year but the company’s share price has only increased by 6% per year, which means it is significantly lagging earnings growth. Valuation Update With 7 Day Price Move • May 11
Investor sentiment deteriorated over the past week After last week's 33% share price decline to JP¥2,500, the stock trades at a forward P/E ratio of 5x. Average forward P/E is 7x in the Metals and Mining industry in Japan. Total returns to shareholders of 26% over the past three years. Price Target Changed • Apr 27
Price target increased to JP¥2,300 Up from JP¥1,700, the current price target is provided by 1 analyst. New target price is 34% below last closing price of JP¥3,505. Stock is up 60% over the past year. The company is forecast to post earnings per share of JP¥477 for next year compared to JP¥59.58 last year. Board Change • Apr 27
Less than half of directors are independent Following the recent departure of a director, there are only 2 independent directors on the board. The company's board is composed of: 2 independent directors. 7 non-independent directors. Independent Outside Director Yukari Sakai was the last independent director to join the board, commencing their role in 2021. The company's minority of independent directors is a risk according to the Simply Wall St Risk Model. Major Estimate Revision • Apr 06
Consensus EPS estimates increase by 48% The consensus outlook for earnings per share (EPS) in 2022 has improved. 2022 revenue forecast increased from JP¥53.8b to JP¥56.6b. EPS estimate increased from JP¥323 to JP¥477 per share. Net income forecast to grow 50% next year vs 26% decline forecast for Metals and Mining industry in Japan. Consensus price target of JP¥2,300 unchanged from last update. Share price was steady at JP¥4,070 over the past week. Valuation Update With 7 Day Price Move • Mar 24
Investor sentiment improved over the past week After last week's 25% share price gain to JP¥4,320, the stock trades at a forward P/E ratio of 19x. Average forward P/E is 8x in the Metals and Mining industry in Japan. Total returns to shareholders of 66% over the past three years. Upcoming Dividend • Mar 23
Upcoming dividend of JP¥110 per share Eligible shareholders must have bought the stock before 30 March 2022. Payment date: 03 June 2022. Payout ratio is a comfortable 12% and this is well supported by cash flows. Trailing yield: 3.4%. Within top quartile of Japanese dividend payers (3.4%). Lower than average of industry peers (4.7%). Reported Earnings • Feb 09
Third quarter 2022 earnings: EPS and revenues miss analyst expectations Third quarter 2022 results: EPS: JP¥191 (up from JP¥34.04 in 3Q 2021). Revenue: JP¥17.5b (up 79% from 3Q 2021). Net income: JP¥3.73b (up 461% from 3Q 2021). Profit margin: 21% (up from 6.8% in 3Q 2021). Revenue missed analyst estimates by 5.2%. Earnings per share (EPS) also missed analyst estimates by 65%. Over the next year, revenue is expected to shrink by 6.2% compared to a 6.5% growth forecast for the industry in Japan. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has increased by 10% per year whereas the company’s share price has increased by 5% per year. Reported Earnings • Nov 11
Second quarter 2022 earnings released: EPS JP¥117 (vs JP¥87.57 in 2Q 2021) The company reported a solid second quarter result with improved earnings and revenues, although profit margins were weaker. Second quarter 2022 results: Revenue: JP¥12.8b (up 70% from 2Q 2021). Net income: JP¥2.27b (up 33% from 2Q 2021). Profit margin: 18% (down from 23% in 2Q 2021). Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has fallen by 31% per year but the company’s share price has only fallen by 9% per year, which means it has not declined as severely as earnings. Valuation Update With 7 Day Price Move • Sep 10
Investor sentiment improved over the past week After last week's 28% share price gain to JP¥2,050, the stock trades at a forward P/E ratio of 10x. Average forward P/E is 8x in the Metals and Mining industry in Japan. Total loss to shareholders of 42% over the past three years. Reported Earnings • Aug 09
First quarter 2022 earnings released: EPS JP¥58.04 (vs JP¥22.97 loss in 1Q 2021) The company reported a strong first quarter result with improved earnings, revenues and profit margins. First quarter 2022 results: Revenue: JP¥11.3b (up 98% from 1Q 2021). Net income: JP¥1.13b (up JP¥1.58b from 1Q 2021). Profit margin: 10.0% (up from net loss in 1Q 2021). Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has fallen by 46% per year but the company’s share price has only fallen by 25% per year, which means it has not declined as severely as earnings. Price Target Changed • Jul 01
Price target decreased to JP¥1,700 Down from JP¥2,170, the current price target is provided by 1 analyst. New target price is approximately in line with last closing price of JP¥1,690. Stock is up 13% over the past year. Major Estimate Revision • Jun 11
Consensus forecasts updated The consensus outlook for 2022 has been updated. 2022 revenue forecast increased from JP¥41.6b to JP¥46.2b. EPS estimate fell from JP¥246 to JP¥241. Net income forecast to grow 304% next year vs 49% growth forecast for Metals and Mining industry in Japan. Consensus price target of JP¥2,080 unchanged from last update. Share price rose 3.2% to JP¥1,873 over the past week. Reported Earnings • May 14
Full year 2021 earnings released: EPS JP¥59.58 (vs JP¥32.04 in FY 2020) The company reported a decent full year result with improved earnings and profit margins, although revenues were weaker. Full year 2021 results: Revenue: JP¥32.2b (down 27% from FY 2020). Net income: JP¥1.16b (up 86% from FY 2020). Profit margin: 3.6% (up from 1.4% in FY 2020). Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has fallen by 36% per year but the company’s share price has only fallen by 20% per year, which means it has not declined as severely as earnings. Upcoming Dividend • Mar 23
Inaugural dividend of JP¥20.00 per share Eligible shareholders must have bought the stock before 30 March 2021. Payment date: 02 June 2021. The company last paid an ordinary dividend in June 2019. The average dividend yield among industry peers is 1.5%. Is New 90 Day High Low • Feb 17
New 90-day high: JP¥2,414 The company is up 35% from its price of JP¥1,785 on 19 November 2020. The Japanese market is up 14% over the last 90 days, indicating the company outperformed over that time. It also outperformed the Metals and Mining industry, which is up 24% over the same period. Reported Earnings • Feb 11
Third quarter 2021 earnings released: EPS JP¥34.04 (vs JP¥106 in 3Q 2020) The company reported a poor third quarter result with weaker earnings, revenues and profit margins. Third quarter 2021 results: Revenue: JP¥9.74b (down 23% from 3Q 2020). Net income: JP¥664.0m (down 68% from 3Q 2020). Profit margin: 6.8% (down from 16% in 3Q 2020). Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has increased by 12% per year but the company’s share price has fallen by 10% per year, which means it is significantly lagging earnings. Is New 90 Day High Low • Jan 07
New 90-day high: JP¥2,354 The company is up 42% from its price of JP¥1,659 on 09 October 2020. The Japanese market is up 8.0% over the last 90 days, indicating the company outperformed over that time. It also outperformed the Metals and Mining industry, which is up 18% over the same period. Is New 90 Day High Low • Dec 18
New 90-day high: JP¥2,326 The company is up 33% from its price of JP¥1,744 on 18 September 2020. The Japanese market is up 9.0% over the last 90 days, indicating the company outperformed over that time. It also outperformed the Metals and Mining industry, which is up 13% over the same period. Major Estimate Revision • Dec 12
Analysts increase revenue estimates to JP¥33.1b The 2021 consensus revenue estimate increased from JP¥29.7b. Earning per share (EPS) estimate also increased from JP¥56.40 to JP¥108 for the same period. Net income is expected to grow by 90% next year compared to 4.3% growth forecast for the Metals and Mining industry in Japan. The consensus price target increased from JP¥1,690 to JP¥2,170. Share price is up 2.6% to JP¥2,117 over the past week. Is New 90 Day High Low • Dec 02
New 90-day high: JP¥1,952 The company is up 6.0% from its price of JP¥1,845 on 03 September 2020. The Japanese market is up 9.0% over the last 90 days, indicating the company underperformed over that time. It also underperformed the Metals and Mining industry, which is up 10.0% over the same period. Price Target Changed • Dec 01
Price target lowered to JP¥1,690 Down from JP¥2,480, the current price target is provided by 1 analyst. The new target price is 11% below the current share price of JP¥1,894. As of last close, the stock is down 22% over the past year. 